The Week That Was That Changed So Much
FedFin can add little to the commentary on the constitutional, political, and even emotional impact of the rest of President Trump’s term, the Capitol Hill riot, or the change in Senate Control that made last week seem like an epoch.  We can, though, forecast implications for U.S. financial policy, doing so in an in-depth report last week (see Client Report ELECTION25) and Karen Petrou’s memo on one long-term question:  the future of the dollar’s reserve-currency status.  Following New Year’s, we sent you a summary of our 2021 forecasts and nothing that happened last week changed any of them.  Like our most recent in-depth forecast of structural Treasury-market change (see Client Report TMARKET), all of these forecasts were premised on the still-applicable narrowly-divided Senate and near-term Administration and agency focus on regulatory – not legislative or even administrative – action.