Intelligence Council Forecasts More, Worse Financial Crises
The National Intelligence Council’s new quadrennial report forecasting key global trends concludes that financial crises are more likely and will occur with greater intensity following the COVID crisis. This is because pre-existing trends, such as the diversification in global supply chains, increased national debt, and greater government economic intervention have been catalyzed by COVID-19 and will likely remain powerful forces. However, financial crises are also likely to be precipitated by longstanding trends such as rising national debt, a more complex and fragmented trading environment, the global spread of trade in services, employment disruptions, and the continued rise of powerful firms contributing to increased financial risk and crisis intensity.

AL041221.pdf