FedFin Forecast: A Run-Off, A Riot, and the New Congress
It will take considerable time for Congress to absorb the meaning of yesterday’s insurrection not only in institutional terms, but also and more immediately with regard to each Member’s thinking about his or her own policy and political agenda. It will also take considerable time for the Senate’s Democratic leadership to organize itself into new offices with additional staff and new committee line-ups and, in some cases, rules. However, clients are already requesting FedFin’s assessment of implications for financial policy. This report thus provides our initial analysis, one founded on Karen Petrou’s comments yesterday to NPR, that the “moderate middle” will be the Senate’s and thus Congress’ defining force. To be sure, the moderate middle will now tilt to the left on financial policy because of the progressive character of legislation clearing HFSC and Senate Banking, but every controversial actions – especially if these are also very costly actions – will still face floor obstacles.

ELECTION25.pdf