As promised, this post-election forecast looks at bank-merger policy, providing a cautionary note in response to the go-go, game-on forecasts for new mergers often touted by investment bankers. While community- and midsize-bank mergers will move with more certainty, more alacrity is unlikely unless the OCC and FRB join the FDIC with at least an initial deadline. The same banking-agency staff who will work on bank mergers next year are also the same banking-agency staff working on them now. However, we also expect new OCC and FDIC leadership to retract recent agency merger policies, saying at the same time that new ones are forthcoming. Why is there a need for new ones? As detailed in this report, aspects of the new policies addressed….
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