As anticipated in an earlier FedFin report, we confirm that U.S. banking agencies plan to turn quickly to U.S. implementation of the 2017 “Basel IV” package. We noted briefly in our overall assessment of these and other bank-capital changes that these new rules will have significant, strategic impact on U.S. housing finance. In this report, we go in depth to name the winners, likely to include bank portfolio lenders and government or private-label – not agency – securitization. The fate of MI will depend on how the U.S. rules are calibrated and the extent to which the advanced approach continues for the very biggest banks.
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