On its Friday investor call, Fannie Mae reaffirmed our forecasts of the capital impact of the CRT shut-down and forbearance-portfolio policy. However, Fannie also expects FHFA to move forward with its capital proposal, suggesting imminent collision between a rock – GSE capital under stress – and a hard place – FHFA’s determination to end the conservatorship. In this analysis, we note some steps Fannie plans to take to avoid getting crushed in the middle and who else might get rolled over along the way.
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