As many of you requested, this report provides our assessment of the policy impact of the U.S. midterm. With the caveat that we are policy – not political – analysts, we conclude that legislative outcomes in the 116th Congress – if any – will be driven by events to come, not by industry or advocacy-group agendas today. With the volatile combination of a Democratic House, Republican Senate, and twitter-happy President ahead of an historic national election in 2020, we run counter to conventional wisdom to forecast that the next Congress – divided though it is – will be consequential both by its legislative action and in its debate and proposals that, while not enacted, nonetheless determine the structure of U.S. finance and the future of the GSEs.
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