#AT1 – Federal Financial Analytics

10 04, 2024

DAILY041024

Eliza Allen2024-04-10T17:24:00-04:00April 10th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

OCC Merger Deadline Extended, De Facto Policy Remains

Responding to industry requests, the OCC today extended the comment deadline on its merger proposal (see FSM Report MERGER14) until June 15 from April 15.

Gruenberg Defends FDIC GSIB-Resolution Readiness

Rejecting criticism from its own inspector-general and others including Karen Petrou, FDIC Chair Gruenberg today stated that the agency is indeed ready to resolve a U.S. GSIB and that any such resolution will exert market discipline on shareholders and BHC counterparties.

Hsu Presses Banks to Expand Account Access for Immigrants

Focusing on increasing banking access for immigrants, Acting Comptroller Hsu today told banks to consider risk-based adjustments to their account screening processes to accept more forms of identification for account openings such as municipal IDs and consular ID cards.

Daily041024.pdf…

8 12, 2023

DAILY120823

Eliza Allen2023-12-08T16:54:36-05:00December 8th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Study Concludes Banks at Climate Risk Despite Lit-Survey Conclusions

A new Basel Committee working paper provides a literature review of recent analyses of climate risk’s impact on financial institutions to assess the drivers key to establishing the scenario analyses recently outlined in the Committee’s final climate-risk principles (see FSM Report CLIMATE14) and those recently finalized by U.S. banking agencies (see FSM Report CLIMATE17).

EU Regulators Seek AT1 Certainty

Treasury and the EU today issued a joint statement summarizing topics discussed at this week’s U.S.-EU financial regulatory forum. These included financial stability, bank-regulatory developments, AML, sustainable finance, supervisory coordination, and digital-finance operational resilience.

Senate GOP Tackles U.S. Participation in FSB Entities

Sens. Braun (R-IN), Hagerty (R-TN), and Marshall (R-KS) have introduced S. 3446, a bill to require the banking agencies to report on their interactions with nongovernmental international organizations. This is part of the broader campaign to block U.S. agencies from adhering to edicts such as the end-game capital rules, reaching also insurance and securities standards.

HFSC Leadership Blast Hsu’s Competence, Agency Operations

HFSC Subcommittee Chairs Barr (R-KY), Huizenga (R-MI) and Hill (R-AR) sent a letter today to Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu continuing their attacks (see Client Report FINTECH33) against the OCC for its recently reported hiring of an individual with falsified credentials to oversee the OCC’s Office of Financial Technology.

Daily120823.pdf…

19 10, 2023

DAILY101923

Eliza Allen2023-10-19T16:30:42-04:00October 19th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OIG Blasts FDIC’s Crypto-Policy Delay

Late yesterday, the FDIC’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) issued a report critical of the FDIC’s supervisory crypto policy.

Fed May Signal Possible Compromise as GOP Barr Demands Capital Answers

Amid press reports that Chair Powell has implicitly promised capital-rule compromise, HFSC Financial Institutions Chair Barr (R-KY) released a letter today pressing Vice Chair Barr still harder on the cost-benefit analytical (CBA) and cumulative-impact issues raised at the September hearing at which Karen Petrou testified.

Fed Data Show Increases in Household Financial Resilience, Profound Home-Affordability Gap

The Federal Reserve yesterday released its triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). As always, we here highlight data with financial-policy implications; Petrou blogs and other releases will update economic-equality indicators.

BIS Head Calls for Review of Large Bank Supervision

BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens today said that the mid-March failures show the need for nations to review how they supervise larger banks, specifically highlighting liquidity risk and setting frameworks for emergency liquidity assistance.

OCC Analysis Shows Broad IRR Resilience With Startling Risk Pockets

Showing some pockets of severe risk but overall resilience, the OCC today released a statistical analysis of interest rate risk based on projected changes in twelve-month net interest income as well as the economic value of equity in parallel interest rate shock scenarios ranging from -200 basis points to +400 bps.

CFPB Thinks Big on Open Banking

As anticipated, the CFPB today advanced from a review of consumer data rights (see FSM Report…

11 10, 2023

DAILY101123

Eliza Allen2023-10-11T16:47:36-04:00October 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Targets U.S. Leverage Ratio, NBFIs

In remarks during the Morocco IMF/Bank meeting today, FRB Gov. Bowman contrasted U.S. bank resilience with the IMF’s findings yesterday on potential vulnerabilities as rates rise and macroeconomic conditions soften.

FSB Reiterates Stability Concerns

The FSB’s latest work plan reiterates all it most recently said to the G20.

CFPB Barrels Down on “Basic” Banking Fees

In conjunction with a new White-House junk-fee initiative, the CFPB today issued “guidance” – i.e., essentially a final rule – banning large banks and credit unions from collecting “unreasonable” fees for what the Bureau considers reasonable and “basic” account information.

SEC Throws Wrench into TLAC Standards

As we noted yesterday, the FSB’s assessment of the global resolution framework’s effectiveness found significant glitches it urges national regulators quickly to address via standards such as those now pending in the U.S. to bring smaller banking organizations into the resolution-planning regime (see FSM Report LIVINGWILL23).

OFR Study: Short-Selling Does Not Harm Financial Stability

OFR today released a model-based study that finds no evidence that short-selling adversely affects financial stability.

Daily101123.pdf…

10 10, 2023

DAILY101023

Eliza Allen2023-10-10T16:46:21-04:00October 10th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Barr Stands Firm on Capital Rewrite

In remarks yesterday, Vice Chair Barr made it clear that, no matter all the industry and Republican pressure, the Fed believes the pending capital rewrite has no material problematic consequences and is necessitated by recent events.

FSB Calls for Continued Improvements in Cross-Border Payments

Following its cross-border payments roadmap, the FSB today released two progress reports finding that further work is needed in ensuring payment system interoperability, establishing common data standards for payments messages, developing tools needed for APIs, and providing a vehicle for the investigation of legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks.

FSB Presses for Better Smaller-Bank, GSIB Resolvability

Following Basel’s review late last week on the 2023 crash (see Client Report REFORM228), the FSB today released its assessment of implications for GSIB resolution. Basel’s report acknowledged challenges in this area, but largely focused on what we call Basel V.

Fed Finalizes DIHC Insurance-Capital Construct

As promised in the bank-capital proposals (see FSM Report CAPITAL230), the FRB Friday voted 6-0 to finalize long-pending standards for insurance-focused depository institution holding companies.

GOP Hikes Pressure on Iran Payment, Sanctions

Presaging likely HFSC hearings and delays in regular committee action, Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) today called for Secretary Yellen to testify in front of Senate Banking to explain why $6 billion is being released to Iran and to identify any sanctions gaps.

Bowman Pursues Barr, Array of Recent Fed Actions

Continuing her opposition to much of what Vice Chair Barr is doing, …

6 10, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Basel Lays Big Plans for Basel V

Arezou Rafikian2023-10-06T14:47:18-04:00October 6th, 2023|The Vault|

As we noted yesterday, the Basel Committee’s October meeting concluded not only with plans for new disclosure consultations, but also a report on lessons learned from the 2023 crisis. We have long considered the “end-game” standards so substantive as to constitute Basel IV; now, as this report details, Basel is laying plans for Basel V via new liquidity, interest-rate, capital, and structural changes to the current construct. We thus focus on the supervisory and regulatory action steps Basel posits as necessary responses to the financial-market volatility sparked earlier this year by SVB, SBNY, FRC, and CS’s failures. While Basel states that none of its recommendations necessarily presages near-term global standards, …

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

6 10, 2023

REFORM228

Eliza Allen2023-10-06T11:45:12-04:00October 6th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Basel Lays Big Plans for Basel V

As we noted yesterday, the Basel Committee’s October meeting concluded not only with plans for new disclosure consultations, but also a report on lessons learned from the 2023 crisis. We have long considered the “end-game” standards so substantive as to constitute Basel IV; now, as this report details, Basel is laying plans for Basel V via new liquidity, interest-rate, capital, and structural changes to the current construct. We thus focus on the supervisory and regulatory action steps Basel posits as necessary responses to the financial-market volatility sparked earlier this year by SVB, SBNY, FRC, and CS’s failures. While Basel states that none of its recommendations necessarily presages near-term global standards, they warrant review not only as likely precursors to at least some new proposals, but also as guides to what is top of mind for national regulators beyond finalizing end-game capital rules and dealing with home-country matters such as resolvability. If Basel proposes only some of the regulatory revisions it has in mind or, as the Fed clearly intends, the U.S. does so ahead of time, larger banks will face significant revisions to the LCR and NSFR, capital add-ons for interest-rate outliers, and express ring-fencing to prevent a CS repeat – i.e., a case in which the parent company met applicable standards but key subsidiaries fell far short.

REFORM228.pdf…

13 09, 2023

DAILY091323

Eliza Allen2023-09-13T16:46:21-04:00September 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Plans Still More Nails in CBDC Congressional Coffin

The memo for tomorrow’s HFSC CBDC hearing leaves no doubt as to continuing staunch GOP opposition, with Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) reintroducing legislation barring the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals or using it to implement monetary policy.

FSI: Contingent Capital Fails as TLAC

Reinforcing the decision by U.S. agencies not to allow CoCo to serve as TLAC (see FSM Report TLAC9), a new BIS staff brief concludes that the current regulatory framework for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds may not be fit for purpose, encouraging regulators to rethink CoCo as well as to consider heightening disclosure standards.

Gensler Emphasizes Prime Broker, Crypto, AI Risks

SEC Chairman Gensler today highlighted his ongoing worries about prime brokers, reiterating leverage and systemic-risk concerns.

Chopra Suggests Bank Merger Rewrite in Works

CFPB Director Chopra today reiterated the Bureau’s priorities, stating that the current bank merger review process lacks analytical rigor which will soon be addressed in ways he did not specify.

Daily091223.pdf…

22 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: GSIB Rules Set For Post-CS Rewrite

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-22T16:34:58-04:00March 22nd, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we assess the implications of recent events on two assumptions underlying current U.S. and global policy affecting GSIBs and those considered domestic SIBs: first, all are likely to be well insulated from illiquidity and/or insolvency and, when this is not the case, then orderly resolution without taxpayer bailout can be readily deployed. Credit Suisse’s failure and subsequent, subsidized acquisition is just one of the “Minsky moments” rattling regulators and other policy-makers, with the conclusions drawn from all of them surely to lead to significant reevaluation of each of these assumptions. To be sure, CS was an outlier in terms of idiosyncratic culture-and-control problems, but the Swiss regulatory and resolution system is considered reasonably robust, thus making the bank’s failure…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

…

22 03, 2023

GSIB21

Eliza Allen2023-03-22T10:52:22-04:00March 22nd, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: GSIB Rules Set For Post-CS Rewrite

In this report, we assess the implications of recent events on two assumptions underlying current U.S. and global policy affecting GSIBs and those considered domestic SIBs: first, all are likely to be well insulated from illiquidity and/or insolvency and, when this is not the case, then orderly resolution without taxpayer bailout can be readily deployed. Credit Suisse’s failure and subsequent, subsidized acquisition is just one of the “Minsky moments” rattling regulators and other policy-makers, with the conclusions drawn from all of them surely to lead to significant reevaluation of each of these assumptions. To be sure, CS was an outlier in terms of idiosyncratic culture-and-control problems, but the Swiss regulatory and resolution system is considered reasonably robust, thus making the bank’s failure a global policy concern. The flood of deposits out of regional banks to the largest U.S. banks also further concentrates the sector, a result the Fed and Department of Justice will view with alarm even though they recognize that recent events are not the fault of the largest banking organizations. In this report, we assess implications for U.S. merger policy, OLA, TLAC, resolution planning, and other standards. See our Client Report RESOLVE49 for a discussion of capital and liquidity standards, Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118 for revisions to FDIC thresholds, and Client Report LIQUIDITY33 for run-specific policy actions.

GSIB21.pdf…