#Brainard – Federal Financial Analytics

8 04, 2024

GSE-040824

Shane Smith2024-04-08T15:25:01-04:00April 8th, 2024|4- GSE Activity Report|

Discounting Discount Points

It wasn’t hard for us to forecast that, after NEC Director Brainard endorsed CFPB Director Chopra’s jihad against mortgage “junk fees,” that the discount points that received particular opprobrium would be moved up the priority ladder for federal restriction. A Friday CFPB report makes clear that this is indeed very much in the works. We expect new standards to mandate additional protections for borrowers through more complex disclosures, sharp restrictions on comparison-shopping and lead-generation sites, and maybe even a UDAAP edict requiring that discount points be in a borrower’s best interest based on the likely break-even point.

GSE-040824.pdf…

12 03, 2024

DAILY031224

Eliza Allen2024-03-12T16:59:10-04:00March 12th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Hsu Says Opsrisk Not Cured by Capital, Liquidity

In remarks today on operational resilience, Acting Comptroller Hsu notes that operational risk is not “a problem that capital or liquidity can solve.” Karen Petrou has noted this most recently with regard to the operational-risk capital rules included in the current proposal, which are founded on the longstanding regulatory assumption that capital indeed buffers operational risk.

Senate Talk of Affordable Housing Turns to FHLB Role

At today’s Senate Banking Committee affordable-housing hearing, Chairman Brown (D-OH) again called for the Fed to cut interest rates to address the crisis. The hearing also touched on the role FHLBs can play, with Sen. Lummis (R-WY) stating her intentions to work with the system to expand its impact on the housing supply shortage.

CFPB to Proceed to Mortgage-Fee Rulemaking

NEC Director Brainard today said that the CFPB will pursue a rule or similar action to curtail mortgage-closing “junk” costs along the lines we identified following last week’s Bureau post in conjunction with the new White House competition strike force.

Daily031224.pdf…

7 12, 2023

DAILY120723

Eliza Allen2023-12-07T16:42:01-05:00December 7th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS: CCP Collateral Holdings Pose Systemic Risk

A new BIS study looks at the risk that the transformation of OTC markets to centrally-cleared ones has in turn transformed markets based in part on know-your-counterparty into those dependent principally on collateral backing margin positions – an inherently more fragile market structure.

White House Presses FHLB Affordable-Housing Action

In remarks today, National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard not only highlighted the Biden Administration’s actions to address housing affordability, but also mentioned plans for new financing programs.

Ambitious CFPB Regulatory Plans Come Into View

The CFPB’s fall 2023 regulatory agenda provides status updates for several significant rulemaking items.

Basel to Set IRR, Window-Dressing, Crypto Standards

The Basel Committee’s year-end meeting advanced plans to address interest-rate risk (IRR) with a concrete agreement to issue a new consultation later this month updating current global IRR standards (see FSM Report IRR7).

BIS Points to MMF Risk When Rates Rise

Another new BIS paper concludes that the record size of MMFs poses significant threat to dollar-funding market stability.

OCC Warns Banks of AI Risk, Possible Supervisory Action

Reflecting growing Congressional, regulatory, and industry concerns over AI, today’s OCC semiannual risk assessment for federal banks states that national banks should be mindful of AI risks as these fall under current supervisory procedures.

Senate GOP Goes for Gruenberg’s Jugular

Despite efforts by the FDIC to reassure critics about its independent investigation, Senate Banking Republicans today fired off a ferocious letter demanding that FDIC Chair Gruenberg immediately resign …

15 05, 2023

DAILY051523

Eliza Allen2023-05-15T17:23:44-04:00May 15th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Yellen Highlights Investor – Not Uninsured-Deposit – Runs, Buoys Sector Mergers

In an interview over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Yellen struck a decidedly different tone on bank mergers than voiced in the Administration’s policy prior to recent failures.

Gensler Outlines Top Financial Stability Concerns

In remarks today, SEC Chair Gensler outlined his financial-stability priorities.

Failed-Bank CEOs Defend Themselves, Contest Need For Receivership

Ahead of testimony tomorrow before Senate Banking, the CEOs of SVB and Signature have filed statements defending their actions and those of their colleagues.

FHFA Seeks Views On New Pricing Framework

Following last week’s announcement that it would postpone its controversial decision to retain an upfront fee related to a borrower’s debt-to-income level, the FHFA today released a Request for Input on the Enterprises’ single-family pricing framework as well as the process for setting their upfront guarantee fees.

Barr Stands His Supervisory, Regulatory Ground

Vice Chairman Barr’s testimony for Congressional hearings this week has just been released along with the Board’s 2023 supervision-and-regulation report.

Gruenberg Sticks To His Guns

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg’s Congressional testimony largely recounts prior statements about the condition of the banking system, recent bank failures, the new special-assessment proposal (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE120), and the agency’s deposit-insurance reform conclusion (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE119).

Daily051523.pdf…

14 04, 2023

Al041723

Eliza Allen2023-04-14T16:38:08-04:00April 14th, 2023|3- This Week|

So Much to Do…

Last week, we continued our assessment of the policy questions confronting federal regulators and Congress as they simultaneously investigate recent failures and position themselves to get as much out of them as possible to achieve long-cherished reform goals. Although there will be no decisive action until the Fed and FDIC submit their reports and answers to lots of letters that trickle in, important directional signs are coming into view.

Al041723.pdf…

11 04, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-11T16:52:14-04:00April 11th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

11 04, 2023

REFORM220

Eliza Allen2023-04-11T10:41:47-04:00April 11th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected.

REFORM220.pdf…

3 03, 2023

Al030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-03T17:17:37-05:00March 3rd, 2023|3- This Week|

Gloves Off

When Chairman Powell comes before HFSC and Senate Banking this week, we’ll see if FedFin’s forecast for newly-rough going plays out, but all signs say it will. In the lead-up to the midterm, Democrats other than Sen. Warren (D-MA) who weren’t all that sympathetic to many Fed actions held their tongues in order to protect a central bank that, for all its putative independence, seemed aligned with Biden Administration statements promoting American prosperity and the near-term chances of reduced inflation. With the 2024 election looking even uglier than the midterm and Republicans in control of the House, Mr. Powell may find himself squeezed hard from both sides of the aisle, taking lots of heat on issues ranging from monetary policy and the debt ceiling to a panoply of Fed regulatory and payment-system decisions along with the pending nomination of a new vice chair.

Al030623.pdf…

17 02, 2023

DAILY021723

Eliza Allen2023-02-17T12:16:37-05:00February 17th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Dems Frame FRB-Nomination Demands

In conjunction with a bill spearheaded by Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) joined other Democrats yesterday in introducing S. 496, legislation to require that the Federal Reserve Board have a governor dedicated to worker interests much as the seat now held by Gov. Bowman is by law required to focus on community-bank considerations. The measure was also introduced in the last Congress and was then as now intended more to send a signal to the White House about the candidates Senate Banking will view with the greatest favor rather than as a serious effort to change the law.

Swiss Bank Role In SEC Crypto Action Sure To Hike Pressure On Banking Agencies

We draw to your attention the reference to a Swiss bank in the SEC’s enforcement order against Terraform Labs and its founder, Do Kwon. Although criticized today by Republicans as an example of the SEC’s prior regulatory failures, the order itself is unsurprising given that Mr. Kwon is a fugitive and the algorithmic stablecoin’s collapse shocked previously complacent crypto markets and regulators. The SEC’s order says only that $100 million was illegally transferred into a “Swiss bank,” not naming the institution.

Daily021723.pdf…

14 02, 2023

DAILY021423

Eliza Allen2023-02-14T16:52:49-05:00February 14th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

What’s Next At The Post-Brainard Fed

Clients have asked us to advise on what may be next for the Fed if Vice Chair Brainard is indeed named as head of the White House NEC, which now seems certain. In our view, there will be no change to FOMC policy given unanimity on this question and the leadership not only of the vice chair, but also of the Fed chairman and FRB-NY president. However, there could be a significant shift in the likelihood of a U.S. CBDC. Ms. Brainard has been the most outspoken advocate of a CBDC (see Client Report CBDC13), but her successor as head of the Fed payment committee is likely to be either Gov. Waller or Bowman, each of whom is a strong CBDC skeptic.

Daily021423.pdf…