#Brainard – Federal Financial Analytics

15 05, 2023

DAILY051523

Eliza Allen2023-05-15T17:23:44-04:00May 15th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Yellen Highlights Investor – Not Uninsured-Deposit – Runs, Buoys Sector Mergers

In an interview over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Yellen struck a decidedly different tone on bank mergers than voiced in the Administration’s policy prior to recent failures.

Gensler Outlines Top Financial Stability Concerns

In remarks today, SEC Chair Gensler outlined his financial-stability priorities.

Failed-Bank CEOs Defend Themselves, Contest Need For Receivership

Ahead of testimony tomorrow before Senate Banking, the CEOs of SVB and Signature have filed statements defending their actions and those of their colleagues.

FHFA Seeks Views On New Pricing Framework

Following last week’s announcement that it would postpone its controversial decision to retain an upfront fee related to a borrower’s debt-to-income level, the FHFA today released a Request for Input on the Enterprises’ single-family pricing framework as well as the process for setting their upfront guarantee fees.

Barr Stands His Supervisory, Regulatory Ground

Vice Chairman Barr’s testimony for Congressional hearings this week has just been released along with the Board’s 2023 supervision-and-regulation report.

Gruenberg Sticks To His Guns

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg’s Congressional testimony largely recounts prior statements about the condition of the banking system, recent bank failures, the new special-assessment proposal (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE120), and the agency’s deposit-insurance reform conclusion (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE119).

Daily051523.pdf…

14 04, 2023

Al041723

Eliza Allen2023-04-14T16:38:08-04:00April 14th, 2023|3- This Week|

So Much to Do…

Last week, we continued our assessment of the policy questions confronting federal regulators and Congress as they simultaneously investigate recent failures and position themselves to get as much out of them as possible to achieve long-cherished reform goals. Although there will be no decisive action until the Fed and FDIC submit their reports and answers to lots of letters that trickle in, important directional signs are coming into view.

Al041723.pdf…

11 04, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-11T16:52:14-04:00April 11th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

11 04, 2023

REFORM220

Eliza Allen2023-04-11T10:41:47-04:00April 11th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected.

REFORM220.pdf…

3 03, 2023

Al030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-03T17:17:37-05:00March 3rd, 2023|3- This Week|

Gloves Off

When Chairman Powell comes before HFSC and Senate Banking this week, we’ll see if FedFin’s forecast for newly-rough going plays out, but all signs say it will. In the lead-up to the midterm, Democrats other than Sen. Warren (D-MA) who weren’t all that sympathetic to many Fed actions held their tongues in order to protect a central bank that, for all its putative independence, seemed aligned with Biden Administration statements promoting American prosperity and the near-term chances of reduced inflation. With the 2024 election looking even uglier than the midterm and Republicans in control of the House, Mr. Powell may find himself squeezed hard from both sides of the aisle, taking lots of heat on issues ranging from monetary policy and the debt ceiling to a panoply of Fed regulatory and payment-system decisions along with the pending nomination of a new vice chair.

Al030623.pdf…

17 02, 2023

DAILY021723

Eliza Allen2023-02-17T12:16:37-05:00February 17th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Dems Frame FRB-Nomination Demands

In conjunction with a bill spearheaded by Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) joined other Democrats yesterday in introducing S. 496, legislation to require that the Federal Reserve Board have a governor dedicated to worker interests much as the seat now held by Gov. Bowman is by law required to focus on community-bank considerations. The measure was also introduced in the last Congress and was then as now intended more to send a signal to the White House about the candidates Senate Banking will view with the greatest favor rather than as a serious effort to change the law.

Swiss Bank Role In SEC Crypto Action Sure To Hike Pressure On Banking Agencies

We draw to your attention the reference to a Swiss bank in the SEC’s enforcement order against Terraform Labs and its founder, Do Kwon. Although criticized today by Republicans as an example of the SEC’s prior regulatory failures, the order itself is unsurprising given that Mr. Kwon is a fugitive and the algorithmic stablecoin’s collapse shocked previously complacent crypto markets and regulators. The SEC’s order says only that $100 million was illegally transferred into a “Swiss bank,” not naming the institution.

Daily021723.pdf…

14 02, 2023

DAILY021423

Eliza Allen2023-02-14T16:52:49-05:00February 14th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

What’s Next At The Post-Brainard Fed

Clients have asked us to advise on what may be next for the Fed if Vice Chair Brainard is indeed named as head of the White House NEC, which now seems certain. In our view, there will be no change to FOMC policy given unanimity on this question and the leadership not only of the vice chair, but also of the Fed chairman and FRB-NY president. However, there could be a significant shift in the likelihood of a U.S. CBDC. Ms. Brainard has been the most outspoken advocate of a CBDC (see Client Report CBDC13), but her successor as head of the Fed payment committee is likely to be either Gov. Waller or Bowman, each of whom is a strong CBDC skeptic.

Daily021423.pdf…

4 11, 2022

DAILY110422

Eliza Allen2022-11-04T17:11:14-04:00November 4th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Big Banks Pressed on Sluggish, Inequitable Deposit-Rate Hikes

Advancing an initiative with political “legs,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) has demanded answers from the nation’s largest banks on why small-deposit rates have barely budged even as the Fed sharply hiked interest rates now reflected in higher loan costs.

FRB-NY Official Details Wholesale CBDC Prototype

Remarks today from a senior FRB-NY official, Michelle Neal, continued the Fed’s ambivalent stand on a CBDC (see FSM Report CBDC10).

Fed Fixes Advanced-Approach Glitches

The FRB is proposing to implement three changes to Regulation Q data collection/disclosure rules governing advanced-approach capital adequacy at BHCs, SLHCs, and state member banks.

Fed to Name Master-Account Names

Reflecting ongoing concerns on Capitol Hill, the Fed is proposing to make what our analysis suggests were opaque payment-system access guidelines (see FSM Report PAYMENT24) “a bit more transparent.”

Toomey Presses for SLR Rewrite

Ranking Senate Banking Member Toomey (R-PA) today released his letter to Chairman Powell cautioning the central bank not to handle any Treasury-market liquidity events with new backstop facilities.

Waters Adds To Fed’s Political Woes

In a letter today, HFSC Chairwoman Waters (D-CA) joined Sens. Warren (D-MA), Brown (D-OH), and Hickenlooper (D-CO) in sharply criticizing the recent Fed “super-sized” rate hike.

Fed Worry Level Goes Up

The Federal Reserve likely hoped for the torpor of a Friday afternoon to quell frightened replies to the latest financial-stability report released today.

Daily110422.pdf…

14 10, 2022

DAILY101422

Eliza Allen2022-10-14T17:04:18-04:00October 14th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Along with a Squeaker Merger Approval, Fed/FDIC Begin Work on Large-Bank Resolvability

As anticipated in Karen Petrou’s speech yesterday, the Fed today unanimously approved and the FDIC will shortly do the same on an advance notice of proposed rulemaking re-enforcing large-bank resolvability. That this complex rulemaking will not slow near-term merger decisions was made clear today also by the Fed and OCC decisions to clear USB’s acquisition of MSFG’s California banking organization.

Covid Comm Presses CFPB for Still More Credit-Reporting Reform

The Chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, Rep. James Clyburn (D-NC) sent a letter to CFPB Director Chopra requesting that the Bureau investigate the three nationwide consumer reporting agencies (NCRAs) for failing to properly address credit reporting errors. Citing data, the Subcommittee obtained from the NCRAs, Chairman Clyburn alleges that reporting errors occurred far more often than previously thought, that the majority of disputes do not result in consumer relief, and that the NCRAs discarded “tens of millions” of submissions without investigation by claiming they came from unauthorized third-parties.

Waller Dismisses Threat To Reserve Dollar Without A CBDC

In remarks today, FRB Governor Waller reiterated his skepticism of foreign-issued CBDCs and stablecoins, arguing that the underlying reasons for dollar dominance are non-technological and CBDCs will not affect them. He dismisses concerns that foreign CBDCs would undermine dollar dominance because they could neither reduce payment frictions nor prevent illicit finance.

Daily101422.pdf…

8 09, 2022

DAILY090822

Eliza Allen2022-11-09T13:00:10-05:00September 8th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Gensler Stands Crypto Ground

In remarks today, SEC Chairman Gensler stood firm: almost all crypto tokens are securities because they are investment contracts under the “Howey Test.” Further guidance is unnecessary, he said, because the Commission has been clear and crypto companies request it only because they do not like this conclusion, not because they fail to understand it.

GOP Demands Answers On CBDC Authorization, Construct

Ranking Member McHenry (R-NC) and all of the HFSC’s Republicans today sent a letter to Vice Chair Brainard demanding that she clarify several issues germane to U.S. CBDC issuance. These most notably include the extent to which the “support” from the Administration and Congress she said was needed (see Client Report CBDC13) means express statutory change and Administration order.

Toomey Demands Greater CRA Transparency, Updated Regulations

Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) today sent a letter to Vice Chair Brainard, Acting Comptroller Hsu, and Director Gruenberg sharply criticizing what he calls a lack of transparency of CRA-derived community benefit plans (CBPs). Describing these as an “egregious” circumvention of congressional intent, he demands that the banking regulators update regulations implementing GLBA’s CRA sunshine provision, specifically urging them to establish a public database containing all CRA-related agreements in full.

Daily090822.pdf…