#CBDC – Federal Financial Analytics

23 03, 2023

DAILY032323

Eliza Allen2023-03-23T17:09:59-04:00March 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OFR Study Predicts Household Gains, Banking Instability From Digital Currencies

A new OFR working paper concludes that full integration of digital currencies into the economy would reduce financial-system volatility and improve household welfare, but also increase the probability of a banking crisis.

HFSC Poses Still Tougher SVB/SBNY Resolution Questions

Following tough GOP letters to the Fed and FDIC earlier this week, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Subcommittee Chair Hill (R-AR) last night sent even sterner missives to Chairman Gruenberg and Secretary Yellen.

Bipartisan Push Begins For CEO Clawbacks

Ahead of its first of many hearings on the collapse of SVB and SBNY, Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) today sent letters to the former CEOs of the banks demanding that they answer for the bank failures, noting also that they will be expected to testify before the Committee if they are unable to do so next week.

OFR Blog: CRE, Residential Markets Pose Little Systemic Risk

Despite growing concerns about CRE and even potential systemic risk, an OFR blog post today concludes that neither the residential nor commercial real estate market poses a significant threat to the financial system.

Basel Stands By Its Rules, Contemplates New Supervisory Standards

The Basel Committee’s release following its March 14 meeting unsurprisingly notes the bank failures preceding it just days before, but attributes them principally to poor risk management in the face of rising rates.

GSEs Seek Public Comment on Credit Score Model Transition

The FHFA today announced…

9 03, 2023

DAILY030923

Eliza Allen2023-03-09T16:52:09-05:00March 9th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Barr Emphasizes Steep Barriers to Bank Crypto, Retail CBDC

In remarks today, FRB Vice Chair Barr reiterated that banks should take an extremely cautious approach when engaging with cryptoassets or counterparties and stressed the need to include stablecoins within the regulatory perimeter. For the first time, the Fed made it clear that, while it is open to DLT, smart-contract, and similar payment-system innovations, it is dubious that any will have near-term benefits and all require careful regulatory design.

Expected Battle Lines Form Over CFPB Future

As predicted, today’s HFSC Subcommittee hearing on the CFPB was a partisan and raucous session, with Republicans focusing most strongly on legal and constitutional issues around the Bureau’s funding and enforcement authority and Democrats defending both its legality and effectiveness. Much will come of this in terms of HFSC and floor votes, but we expect no statutory change in this Congress under this President.

Hill Sets Table for Bipartisan Crypto Action

Today’s Digital Assets Subcommittee hearing was considerably more conciliatory than the CFPB session earlier today, with Chairman Hill (R-AR) making clear in his opening statement that he is not launching a partisan attack against the SEC, the banking agencies, or the White House. He hopes instead to press bipartisan legislation, thanking former Chair Waters (D-CA) for her work on stablecoins and emphasizing the need not only for new law there, but also across the array of pending digital-asset questions.

Daily030923.pdf…

8 03, 2023

FedFin: Red Light For Retail CBDC

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-08T17:02:10-05:00March 8th, 2023|The Vault|

At today’s HFSC hearing, Chairman Powell modulated his hawkish stance just a bit, continuing as he long has done to refuse to take a stand on fiscal policy while advocating for rapid debt-limit action. Pressed by Republicans for CBDC updates, the chairman today was the most specific of any Fed official to date, stating that a retail CBDC would require express Congressional authorization even though this may not be the case for a wholesale-focused instrument. As yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72), Republicans pushed hard against the Vice Chairman’s holistic-capital review, leading Mr. Powell to say that he hopes for Board consensus on both end-game rules and broader rewrites but cannot assure this will be the case despite the Board’s consensus culture….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

8 03, 2023

FEDERALRESERVE73

Max Camateros-Mann2023-03-10T10:07:22-05:00March 8th, 2023|5- Client Report|

Red Light For Retail CBDC

At today’s HFSC hearing, Chairman Powell modulated his hawkish stance just a bit, continuing as he long has done to refuse to take a stand on fiscal policy while advocating for rapid debt-limit action. Pressed by Republicans for CBDC updates, the chairman today was the most specific of any Fed official to date, stating that a retail CBDC would require express Congressional authorization even though this may not be the case for a wholesale-focused instrument. As yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72), Republicans pushed hard against the Vice Chairman’s holistic-capital review, leading Mr. Powell to say that he hopes for Board consensus on both end-game rules and broader rewrites but cannot assure this will be the case despite the Board’s consensus culture.

FEDERALRESERVE73.pdf…

6 03, 2023

DAILY030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-06T16:54:30-05:00March 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Revs Up Fight Vs. Big-Bank Capital Hikes

Firing a fusillade ahead of capital rewrites expected late this month, Senate Banking Republicans late Friday sent FRB Chairman Powell a letter arguing strongly against capital increases and laying out a strong view that the agencies are required by law to tailor key standards.

BIS Project Finds Retail-CBDC Cross-Border Benefits

In a project boosting retail CBDC, the BIS Innovation Hub today announced the results of Project Icebreaker, a cross-border retail CBDC pilot between Sweden, Norway, and Israel.

GOP Will Deploy IGs To Demand Fed, CFPB, SEC Reform

In addition to a hearing that morning with Chairman Powell, the full HFSC will call federal banking agencies on the carpet Wednesday for “wasteful” spending and other governance issues.

Dems Beg Gensler Not to Scrap Scope 3 Climate Disclosures

Responding to intense GOP opposition to the SEC’s climate disclosure proposal, fifty Congressional Democrats led by Sen. Warren (D-MA) sent a letter to SEC Chairman Gensler today urging him not to scale the proposal back, especially its Scope 3 provisions.

Treasury Wants Fast NBFI, OEF, Crypto Standards

Treasury International Affairs Under-Secretary Jay Shambaugh today outlined U.S. priorities, emphasizing not only the importance of containing Russia and countering new threats, but also quickly advancing numerous global initiatives.

Hsu Pushes To Start The End Game

Acting Comptroller Hsu today reiterated his determination to act as quickly as possible on Basel’s end-game rules, noting the interagency statement last year that this would soon be done without providing …

6 03, 2023

M030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-06T16:31:40-05:00March 6th, 2023|6- Client Memo|

Why Way-Woke Won’t Work in 2023

The fact that both the House and Senate passed a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning the Department of Labor’s ESG standards makes it clear that striking an anti-woke blow is deemed good politics by red and purple politicians. The President’s certain veto also makes it clear that a blue man sees matters quite differently, as did 204 House Democrats and 46 of their Senate colleagues. This stalemate will continue for changes to federal law, but it won’t stop Republicans from taking a lot out on financial regulators and big banks that they can’t get into the law books. Thus, anyone deemed even a bit woke-ful will get an earful.

M030623.pdf…

6 03, 2023

Karen Petrou: Why Way-Woke Won’t Work in 2023

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-06T16:31:48-05:00March 6th, 2023|The Vault|

The fact that both the House and Senate passed a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning the Department of Labor’s ESG standards makes it clear that striking an anti-woke blow is deemed good politics by red and purple politicians. The President’s certain veto also makes it clear that a blue man sees matters quite differently, as did 204 House Democrats and 46 of their Senate colleagues. This stalemate will continue for changes to federal law, but it won’t stop Republicans from taking a lot out on financial regulators and big banks that they can’t get into the law books. Thus, anyone deemed even a bit woke-ful will get an earful.

Even if all these excoriations are only rhetorical, they will prove meaningful because even federal regulators immune from the appropriations process are susceptible to political influence – as well they should be if they are not also to be unaccountable. That anti-wokeness is already making its mark is evident in many ways, most recently in the inter- agency crypto-liquidity risk statement at great pains to refute any Republican suggestion that tough new standards amount to a blanket ban on engaging in any form of legal cryptoasset activity. In essence, the new statement says, “banks can do crypto if it’s legal, but they almost surely shouldn’t do crypto because it’s way risky and we’re watching.”

To be sure, anything crypto isn’t always toxic. Another way the agencies will handle accusations that they are conducting a stealth-woke anti-crypto campaign is to make it …

3 03, 2023

Al030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-03T17:17:37-05:00March 3rd, 2023|3- This Week|

Gloves Off

When Chairman Powell comes before HFSC and Senate Banking this week, we’ll see if FedFin’s forecast for newly-rough going plays out, but all signs say it will. In the lead-up to the midterm, Democrats other than Sen. Warren (D-MA) who weren’t all that sympathetic to many Fed actions held their tongues in order to protect a central bank that, for all its putative independence, seemed aligned with Biden Administration statements promoting American prosperity and the near-term chances of reduced inflation. With the 2024 election looking even uglier than the midterm and Republicans in control of the House, Mr. Powell may find himself squeezed hard from both sides of the aisle, taking lots of heat on issues ranging from monetary policy and the debt ceiling to a panoply of Fed regulatory and payment-system decisions along with the pending nomination of a new vice chair.

Al030623.pdf…

1 03, 2023

DAILY030123

Eliza Allen2023-03-01T16:38:23-05:00March 1st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

What’s Next For McHenry Privacy Bill

As we anticipated yesterday, HFSC reported H.R. 1165, Chairman McHenry’s privacy bill, on a party-line vote of 26-21. Discussions this morning lead us to conclude that Mr. McHenry plans to consider additional changes that could be made via a manager’s amendment when bringing the bill to the House floor given that its fate there is uncertain given the GOP’s slim majority.

CFPB Targets Public-Benefits Finance

The CFPB today published a “spotlight” examining numerous fees it says “erode” public benefit programs delivered through various financial products. Focusing in particular on prepaid cards, the spotlight states that the Bureau will monitor and may take action against entities violating consumer protection laws in the delivery of cash assistance. This comes following a major enforcement action in this area against Bank of America and reports of others pending against large banks.

Treasury Sets Out Steps Seemingly Towards A U.S. CBDC

Following up the President’s executive order on digital assets (see Client Report CRYPTO26) and Treasury’s subsequent report (see Client Report CBDC14), Under-Secretary Nellie Liang today outlined next steps leading to the Administration’s decision about CBDC benefits that will strongly guide the Fed’s CBDC final call. Ms. Liang details how CBDC and FedNow each have benefits, describing how CBDCs generally work and could function in the U.S.

Daily030123.pdf…

23 02, 2023

DAILY022323

Eliza Allen2023-02-23T16:48:42-05:00February 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Agencies Strengthen Defenses vs. Crypto-Related Funding

As FedFin forecast when significant bank crypto-related deposit exposures came to light (see Client Report CRYPTO38), the banking agencies today issued guidance telling banks to monitor and mitigate risks related to resulting liquidity risk.

FSB Sets Out Key Cross-Border Payments Action Items

The Financial Stability Board today released a list of actions for implementing the G20’s Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments, including three priorities. These are payment system interoperability and extension; legal, regulatory and supervisory finalizing frameworks; and cross-border data exchange and message standards.

IMF Presses CBDC, New “Unified Ledger”

A new IMF blog post advocates for public sector implementation of new payment technologies including tokenization, encryption, and programmability to improve cross-border payments, limit counterparty risk, and facilitate AML and other compliance.

FHFA Proposes GSE-Capital Revamp

FHFA today sought comment on several significant revisions to the regulatory-capital rules governing Fannie and Freddie. As we will detail in a forthcoming in-depth report, several of these changes concede to comments rejected as the current rules were finalized.

Daily022323.pdf…