#CRE

17 08, 2023

CAPITAL234

2023-08-17T15:22:40-04:00August 17th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: What the Agencies Think the Rules Will do and Why Much of That is Wrong

With this report, we conclude our assessment of the regulatory-capital proposal with analysis of what the sum total of the credit (see FSM Report CAPITAL231), operational (see FSM Report OPSRISK22), and market (see FSM Report CAPITAL233) rules could do in the real world of banks, nonbanks, foreign banks, and complex market interconnections.  Our first assessment of the proposal’s framework (see FSM Report CAPITAL230) provided the agencies’ quantitative-impact statement (QIS).  Here, we evaluate the QIS, expand on the agencies’ qualitative conclusions, and add our own assessment of what might actually happen in the face of these sometimes-contradictory capital incentives.

CAPITAL234.pdf

4 08, 2023

FedFin on: Credit-Risk Capital Rewrite

2023-08-04T13:41:04-04:00August 4th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we proceed from our assessment of the proposed regulatory capital framework to an analysis of the rules governing credit risk.  In addition to eliminating the advanced approach, the proposal imposes higher standards for some assets than under the old standardized approach (SA) via new “expanded” requirements.  As detailed here, many expanded risk weightings are higher than current requirements either due to specific risk-weighted assessments (RWAs) or definitions and additional restrictions.  This contributes to the added capital costs identified by the banking agencies in their impact assessment, suggesting that lower risk weightings in the expanded approach reflected the reduced risks described in the proposal for other assets and will ultimately have little bearing on regulatory-capital requirements and thus ….

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4 08, 2023

CAPITAL231

2023-08-04T13:40:43-04:00August 4th, 2023|1- Financial Services Management|

Credit-Risk Capital Rewrite

In this report, we proceed from our assessment of the proposed regulatory capital framework to an analysis of the rules governing credit risk.  In addition to eliminating the advanced approach, the proposal imposes higher standards for some assets than under the old standardized approach (SA) via new “expanded” requirements.  As detailed here, many expanded risk weightings are higher than current requirements either due to specific risk-weighted assessments (RWAs) or definitions and additional restrictions.  This contributes to the added capital costs identified by the banking agencies in their impact assessment, suggesting that lower risk weightings in the expanded approach reflected the reduced risks described in the proposal for other assets and will ultimately have little bearing on regulatory-capital requirements and thus on the overall ability of banks to expand into lower-risk areas and compete more effectively with nonbanks and foreign banks.  Big banks forced to abandon certain activities may expand others receiving capital discounts in the new rules, increasing their footprint in traditional banking in ways that may increase industry consolidation.

CAPITAL231.pdf

26 07, 2023

CAPITAL229

2023-07-26T14:30:18-04:00July 26th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: What to Watch in the Regulatory-Capital Rewrite

As promised, we plan in-depth coverage of the Fed and FDIC meetings tomorrow as well as of the capital rewrites they are set to propose no matter all the warning shots from Congressional Republicans.  In this report, we provide an overview of each of the rules the agencies will propose based on key issues in the Basel end-game standards they will finally advance.  We do not focus on details or how the U.S. may adapt these rules except where public releases have provided advance insight.  Instead, we highlight key issues to provide vital background and context of tomorrow’s actions as well as key decision points on which comment and political advocacy are sure to center.

CAPITAL229.pdf

6 07, 2023

DAILY070623

2023-07-06T16:55:22-04:00July 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Redesigns Global Bank-Supervision Construct

As promised at its last meeting, the Basel Committee today released a public consultation on revisions to its 2012 core supervisory principles (see FSM Report REFORM92).

Accommodative CRE Policy Goes Live

Publication in the Federal Register today makes effective a finalized policy statement issued by the banking agencies and NCUA late last week on how financial institutions are to handle troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loans.

Senate Dems Demand CFPB Voice-Cloning Action

Following his letter to large bank CEOs regarding AI fraud, Chairman Brown (D-OH) along with Sens. Menendez (D-NJ), Reed (D-RI), and Smith (D-MN) today sent a letter to Director Chopra urging action against AI-related financial scams.

FSB Turns to GSIB Resolvability

The FSB’s plenary today announced that recent events have spurred it to assess the resolvability of GSIBs and other large banks, providing neither timeline nor focus for this work.

FRB-NY Study Advances Wholesale Digital Currency

Although making clear that it sets no new policy nor endorses any CBDC action, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Center published a DLT proof-of-concept finding that shared ledgers can effectively support both wholesale domestic interbank and cross-border payments.

Daily070623.pdf

3 07, 2023

M070323

2023-07-03T12:09:08-04:00July 3rd, 2023|6- Client Memo|

The Unintended Consequence Of Capital Hikes Isn’t Less Credit, It’s More Risk

As was evident throughout Chairman Powell’s most recent appearances before HFSC and Senate Banking, conflict between capital and credit availability characterizes what is to come of the “end-game” capital rules set for imminent release.  The trade-off is said to be between safer banks and a sound economy, but this is far too simple.  As we’ve seen over and over again as capital rules rise, credit availability stays the same or even increases.  What changes is who makes the loans and what happens to borrowers and the broader macro framework, which in the past has been irrevocably altered.  The real trade-off is thus between lending from banks and the stable financial intermediation this generally ensures and lending from nonbanks and the risks this raises not just to financial stability, but also to economic equality.

M070323.pdf

3 07, 2023

Karen Petrou: The Unintended Consequence Of Capital Hikes Isn’t Less Credit, It’s More Risk

2023-07-03T12:08:54-04:00July 3rd, 2023|The Vault|

As was evident throughout Chairman Powell’s most recent appearances before HFSC and Senate Banking, conflict between capital and credit availability characterizes what is to come of the “end-game” capital rules set for imminent release.  The trade-off is said to be between safer banks and a sound economy, but this is far too simple.  As we’ve seen over and over again as capital rules rise, credit availability stays the same or even increases.  What changes is who makes the loans and what happens to borrowers and the broader macro framework, which in the past has been irrevocably altered.  The real trade-off is thus between lending from banks and the stable financial intermediation this generally ensures and lending from nonbanks and the risks this raises not just to financial stability, but also to economic equality.

As post-2008 history makes clear, banks do not stop lending when capital requirements go up; they stop taking certain balance-sheet risks based on how the sum total of often-conflicting risk-based, leverage, and stress-test rules drives their numbers.  That all these rules push and pull banks in often-different directions is at long last known to the Fed based on Vice Chair Barr’s call for a “holistic review”.  Whether it plans to do anything about them and their adverse impact on the future of regulated financial intermediation remains to be seen.  Until something is done, banks will look across the spectrum of capital rules, spot the highest requirement, and then figure out how best to remain profitable …

29 06, 2023

DAILY062923

2023-06-29T17:22:46-04:00June 29th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Powell Stands by Big-Bank Reg Rewrite

In remarks today, Chair Powell echoed Vice Chair Barr’s “humble” comments yesterday about the need to anticipate additional risks despite banking-system resilience, noting that rules and supervision require review.  Building on the Fed’s internal SVB review (see Client Report REFORM218), Mr. Powell suggested that the Fed had succumbed to the “natural tendency” to fight the last war and needs now to update its standards to address new risks.

FTC Finalizes Tough New Guidance On Deceptive Reviews And Endorsements

The FTC today finalized an updated version of its Endorsement Guides, setting new standards for the advertising and endorsement behavior that may constitute unfair or deceptive practices.  These include implementation of a Consumer Review Fairness Act ban on standardized contract provisions penalizing consumers for negative reviews, a practice the CFPB last year called “gag” clauses that are banned  under this law.

Banking Agencies Encourage Banks To Go Easy On CRE Borrowers

The banking agencies and NCUA today finalized changes to troubled-loan standards in a policy statement that is substantially similar to last year’s proposal.

Daily062923.pdf

28 06, 2023

DAILY062823

2023-06-28T17:21:14-04:00June 28th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Biden Predicts End to Overdrafts

In a speech today detailing “Bidenomics”, President Biden continued his administration’s campaign against “junk fees,” specifically targeting overdrafts.

Fed Branch Approval Faced Unusual Bowman Protest

With a cryptic statement, FRB Gov. Bowman has taken the unusual step of protesting a branch application which she and all other governors approved.  The issue appears to be the fact that two commenters objected to the branch application on grounds that the bank (Vantage in Texas) discriminates against African American borrowers.  The Fed’s formal approval notes only these comments and otherwise approves of the bank’s fair-lending record, also noting its satisfactory CRA rating and the fact that the bank is principally a commercial lender.

Fed Finds Big Banks Resilient, Still Wants More Rules

The Fed’s stress-test release today attempts to meld both the Board’s finding that banks are not only resilient, but also “well-positioned” for a severe recession with Vice Chairman Barr’s plans to rewrite an array of new rules (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72) that stress tests are only one measure of strength the “resilient” evidence itself.

Daily062823.pdf

22 06, 2023

DAILY062223

2023-06-22T16:52:30-04:00June 22nd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Gruenberg: End-Game Almost Done, Will Be Tough

In remarks today, FDIC Chair Gruenberg erased any of the doubt Chair Powell left yesterday as to the nature of the U.S. end-game capital rewrite (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE74).

FSB Tackles Third-Party Risk

The FSB today issued a consultation on third-party vendor management, with comments due by August 22.

Senior Democrats Reintroduce Fed Racial Equity Measure

HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) and Senate Banking member Sen. Warren (D-MA) today reintroduced legislation that would create a new racial justice mission at the Fed.

Powell Announces Internal Endgame Draft, Defends FRB-SF

At a Senate Banking hearing today covering much of the territory discussed in yesterday’s HFSC hearing (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE74), Chairman Powell noted that an endgame draft proposal has been circulated internally, he has been briefed on it and that all governors will have ample time to review it.

Daily062223.pdf

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