#Fannie

2 07, 2024

FedFin: Taking Trump Still More Seriously

2024-07-02T16:24:40-04:00July 2nd, 2024|The Vault|

In the wake of last week’s debate, clients have asked that we advise about what a second Trump term might mean for U.S. mortgage finance.  We reviewed our forecast at the start of this year on exactly this point.  Much of it remains as before, but there are several areas where an update is warranted due to recent Trump fiscal- and monetary-policy trial balloons.  Our updated, complete forecast follows….

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10 08, 2023

FedFin on: 9th Inning Results

2023-08-11T16:25:22-04:00August 10th, 2023|The Vault|

FHFA today released the results of the ninth stress test it’s run on Fannie and Freddie since Dodd-Frank demanded this in 2010.  Using pretty much the same flawed models as the Fed, FHFA finds Fannie and Freddie pretty much as they are even under acute stress.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

8 08, 2023

FedFin on: Say It’s Simple

2023-08-09T14:19:41-04:00August 8th, 2023|The Vault|

Our most recent analysis of the inter-agency capital proposal focuses on significant changes to the rules for securitization and credit-risk transfer positions. In short, super-traditional securitizations have an easier path to the secondary market, but GSEs still beat banks. Complex ABS face often-formidable obstacles, as does CRT given or taken by banks.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

20 03, 2023

FedFin on: The Collateral Damage of the Banking Crisis

2023-03-20T14:30:07-04:00March 20th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we build on FedFin’s in-depth reports about recent bank failures to detail new risks for all of the innocent bystanders in the U.S. mortgage market along with a not so-innocent bystander:  the Federal Home Loan Banks.  We note also some take-aways FHFA may draw from the crisis with regard to GSE regulation, resolution, and supervision.  In short, things will be different assuming they don’t get worse and then still more of a paradigm shift.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

21 11, 2022

FedFin: We’re Starting to See SIFIs

2022-11-22T13:21:33-05:00November 21st, 2022|The Vault|

As came out into the open last week, FSOC will finally turn to rewriting the Trump era rewrite of the Obama Administration’s FSOC protocols regarding systemic financial institutions and activities.  Could the SIFI reaper be coming for Fannie and Freddie?  We doubt it, but then again…

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

30 08, 2022

FedFin on: The No-Down Low-Down

2023-01-03T16:49:13-05:00August 30th, 2022|The Vault|

BofA’s new no-down payment mortgage is another innovative product in which banks use their balance sheets to address their CRA obligations by offering down payment assistance or, as here, flat out nothing down.  The extent to which nonbanks can match these programs depends on the extent to which Fannie and Freddie are able and then willing to cross-subsidize ….

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

19 08, 2022

FedFin: The Social-Impact Say-So

2023-01-04T11:19:39-05:00August 19th, 2022|The Vault|

We look here at an interesting idea from three senior Fannie Mae officials: an index to measure a Single-Family MBS’s social impact.  The proposal seeks to enable socially conscious investors to support affordable housing for underserved communities while balancing the needs of mortgage borrowers, investors, and market function.  It also reflects the objectives laid out in Fannie Mae’s Equitable Housing Finance Plan such as providing social impact data and boosting low-income and minority homeownership. …

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12 08, 2022

FedFin: Testing for What, Why?

2023-01-04T12:28:53-05:00August 12th, 2022|The Vault|

FHFA, Fannie, and Freddie yesterday released the results of FHFA’s latest stress test, focusing on the severely-adverse scenario in order – or so FHFA says – to push the GSEs to the limit. This the test does insofar as the GSEs’ combined CET1 capital shortfall is as much as $159 billion. However, aspects of FHFA’s test – e.g., falling inflation over 2022 and 2023 and rising house prices – are likely to be more than a bit off….

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

18 07, 2022

Karen Petrou: A Pragmatic Vision of a Purposeful Home Loan Bank System

2023-01-06T14:56:42-05:00July 18th, 2022|The Vault|

Although a new paper by former FRB Gov. Tarullo and Fed staffers on the FHLB stirred considerable consternation across the Federal Home Loan Bank System, it’s a crushing and persuasive critique of a giant GSE that has long preferred to go unnoticed.  That’s not unreasonable since the System has evolved from an essential small-bank funding source for mortgages into a taxpayer-subsidized capital-markets investment option.  When public wealth is not allocated for public welfare, resources are misallocated and market integrity is compromised.  But, unless the Home Loan Banks blow themselves up, they are here to stay.  Thus, the policy challenge is not how to abolish them, but how best to redirect an established funding channel back to servicing the public good.  Traditional single-family mortgages don’t need the Banks anymore, but much else does.

The paper’s criteria for considering taxpayer subsidies are a very helpful guide for moving forward and thus worth quoting at length:

“There is, of course, nothing inherently wrong with government subsidies. But subsidies should meet two conditions if they are to be sound public policy. First, they must be shown to be correctives for identified market failures or instruments of targeted redistribution policies.  Second, there must be governance mechanisms to ensure that the subsidies are used to achieve the ends specified by the legislature or regulator, and not for other purposes.”

I suspect the authors would agree with a third point:  if a credible, forward-looking case for the subsidy cannot be made by virtue of demonstrable public benefits …

9 06, 2022

FedFin on: Equitable Endeavors

2023-01-27T15:57:10-05:00June 9th, 2022|The Vault|

When Sandra Thompson earlier this year enunciated a new equitable-finance mission, we forecast that Fannie and Freddie would undertake an array of new activities that significantly expand their footprint along with their equity and equality impact.  As anticipated, the plans announced yesterday by Fannie and Freddie go beyond FHFA’s reiterated mission statement earlier this week, mirroring in some ways the banking agencies’ broad view of CRA as a community-development and racial-equity instrument as well as the boost to LMI housing on which attention long focused.  But, for all the public-good creds these plans engender, several will doubtless promote market angst as the GSEs launch pilots that tread heavily on MI, title-insurer, and servicer toes.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

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