#FSOC

3 01, 2024

DAILY010324

2024-01-03T16:38:18-05:00January 3rd, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

EBA Plans Full-Bore NBFI Crackdown

We will shortly provide clients with an in-depth analysis of notable changes to call reporting released for comment late last year.  Today’s Financial Times interviews José Manuel Campa, the chair of the European Banking Authority (EBA), whose comments on NBFIs make it clear that, as we expected, the U.S. action is part of a broader global push to map bank/NBFI interconnections and then curtail them.  The EBA is also planning to stress-test these interconnections, a move we expect also from the Fed when it moves forward on Vice Chair Barr’s multi-scenario test plans.

Women Do Too Know

The Federal Reserve Board this week has issued a staff note finding that the so-called financial literacy gender gap is largely driven by study design, not gender differences in financial literacy.  This has considerable implications for many financial-literacy programs now specifically targeted to women.  The note finds that women are much more likely than men to utilize the “don’t know” choice even though men and women actually respond incorrectly at similar rates.

Daily010324.pdf

2 01, 2024

GSE-010224

2024-01-02T13:59:38-05:00January 2nd, 2024|4- GSE Activity Report|

Data That Matters

Shortly before the new year, the banking agencies proposed new call-report requirements that would force banks with over $10 billion in assets to report new data on nonbank mortgage intermediaries and structured GSE-guaranteed positions.  Don’t be fooled – just because these proposals are only about reporting doesn’t mean that they lack substantive impact.

GSE-010224.pdf

2 01, 2024

AI4

2024-01-02T10:14:03-05:00January 2nd, 2024|1- Financial Services Management|

AI Financial Risk, Rules

Bipartisan Senate legislation has been introduced to press FSOC to do more than highlight artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential threat to financial stability.  The measure instead requires the Council to undertake a rapid study of AI’s financial stability risk and report to Congress on conclusions that must then be advanced through FSOC designation and federal-agency action.  The bill also gives the SEC more authority to address at least some of the risks its chairman has identified that may be posed by predictive analytics, including AI.  New AI-related stress testing would also be likely.

AI4.pdf

18 12, 2023

FSOC29

2023-12-18T11:36:07-05:00December 18th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: FSOC Worries A Lot, Watches, Waits

This year’s FSOC report trods much old ground with two exceptions.  The first pertains to a new focus on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and new, generative technologies.  That said, the report does little beyond highlight this risk and include it among all the others federal agencies are told to monitor.  Private credit now also alarms FSOC, with insurance company investment in this sector of particular systemic concern in concert with the sectors’ CRE and junk-bond exposures, offshore reinsurance, and PE ownership.  As detailed in this report, banks are found to be resilient and have ample capital even as the report supports consideration of pending regulatory revisions.  Banking agencies are also asked to monitor uninsured-deposit levels and assess run-risk in light of social media and other accelerants.  In sharp contrast to more alarmist statements in the past and extensive Treasury reports (see Client Report CRYPTO32), this year’s report downplays cryptoasset risk because federal regulators are said to have taken steps to contain it.  The report also reiterates FSOC’s continuing focus on cyber and climate risk, with the closed session preceding the meeting considering a framework being developed by the OCC to measure and monitor financial risks and bank exposures.  Agencies are also encouraged to pursue comparable, “decision-useful” climate disclosures.  The LIBOR transition is considered a success and no longer poses a systemic risk.

FSOC29.pdf

15 12, 2023

DAILY121523

2023-12-15T17:31:25-05:00December 15th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Crypto Measures Await Next Session

As anticipated, HFSC Chair McHenry (R-NC) was able to fend off concerted efforts by Sens. Brown (D-OH) and Warren (D-MA) to add the Warren-Marshall crypto bill to the National Defense Authorization Act.

FSOC to Target Hedge Funds, Nonbank Mortgage Companies

The readout from Treasury on yesterday’s FSOC meeting provides insight into the Council’s executive session suggesting significant near-term systemic action regarding hedge funds.

FSB Plans Broad Rewrite of Public Backstops, GSIFI Resolvability, Operational Readiness

The FSB’s 2023 Resolution Report today advises banks and public sector authorities to be prepared to access public sector funding in resolution, with the Board planning to review whether existing public sector backstops are adequate to meet potential failure scenarios.

Brown Renews Bipartisan Quest to Constrain Nonbank Banks

Advancing the big-tech concerns he most recently voiced before GSIB CEOs (see Client Report GSIB23), Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) has introduced S. 3538, bipartisan legislation to impose bank regulation on non-bank parent companies of insured depository institutions.

DOJ Targets Fraudulent Microtransactions

Cracking down on unauthorized bank account charges, the DOJ today announced multiple actions against “sham” companies alleged to have used misrepresentations or unauthorized charges to steal money from consumers’ financial accounts.

CRS Warns Credit Card Act Could Result In Risky Retailer Payment Networks

The CRS this week issued a report analyzing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Competition Act, S.1838 (see FSM Report INTERCHANGE10), projecting that fee caps will have a greater impact on transaction fees than competition, with …

15 12, 2023

Al121823

2023-12-15T16:56:09-05:00December 15th, 2023|3- This Week|

Switching from Tea to Gatorade

As we noted, CFPB Director Chopra has referred to the Financial Stability Oversight Council as a “book-report club.”  We don’t disagree – each lengthy annual report has seemed more a compendium of financial-sector facts than a guide to action based on any of them.  However, last week’s FSOC meeting seemed to move from reading to at least talking about intervening, with the readout making it clear that hedge funds are first on the systemic chopping block now that the Council has finalized its systemic methodology (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC98).  Mr. Chopra is especially emphatic about the need to use FSOC’s newly-revised designation power (see FSM Report SIFI37) to name names and set standards.  His target is big tech and the Council’s report this year and its focus on AI may move it slightly in that direction at some future point.

Al121823.pdf

12 12, 2023

DAILY121223

2023-12-12T17:09:22-05:00December 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF Calls for Enhanced Climate-Risk Analyses, Stress-Testing

Calling for implementation of the Basel Committee’s climate-related financial risk principles (see FSM Report CLIMATE14), the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department Director, Tobias Adrian, today pressed central banks to enhance their climate risk analyses and adapt stress-testing frameworks to better reflect climate-financial risk transmission and amplification channels.

Agencies Come Under Still More Workplace-Practice Scrutiny, Political Pressure

As we noted last week, House Republicans are now using ongoing assertions of FDIC workplace dysfunction to attack the OCC.

HFSC Subcomm Considers Sanctions Enforcement

Today’s HFSC National Security Subcommittee hearing focused primarily on critiques of US energy sanctions enforcement related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

House Select Committee Calls on Fed to Stress Test China Risk

The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party today released a bipartisan report urging Congress to direct the Fed to stress-test U.S. banks for their ability to withstand Chinese market risk, produce classified reports on these assessments, and consider the financial market impact of potential sanctions on Chinese financial firms.

Basel Proposes Modest Fix to IRR Standards, Post-SVB Revisions Await

As anticipated, the Basel Committee today released a consultation revising global interest-rate risk (IRR), standards updating current banking-book standards (see FSM Report IRR7) to toughen the IRR-shock calibration.

McKernan Extends Capital Olive Branch

FDIC Director McKernan today offered an end-game compromise that might actually lead to final rules in 2024 that defer some of the …

8 12, 2023

Al121123

2023-12-08T16:55:05-05:00December 8th, 2023|3- This Week|

Another Book Report?

At a recent hearing (see Client Report CONSUMER54), CFPB Director Chopra wasn’t shy in his critique of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.  He called it a “book report club,” a moniker Karen Petrou last week suggested was not wholly untrue when it comes to emerging risks such as private credit.  FSOC’s meeting this Thursday is likely to show the Council at its bookwormy best given that the agenda consists largely of ritual release of yet another FSOC report.  We’ve dutifully catalogued these year-in, year-out as hundreds of FSOC blessed pages spew forth about what the Council did, how many facts its staff gathered about whom in the past year, and what it thinks might go wrong where in concert with little indication of what the Council might then do to prevent the worst from happening.

Al121123.pdf

4 12, 2023

M120423

2023-12-04T11:03:03-05:00December 4th, 2023|6- Client Memo|

Why Curbing Banks Won’t Curtail Private Credit

Last Wednesday, Sens. Brown and Reed wrote to the banking agencies pressing them to cut the cords they believe unduly bind big banks to private-credit companies.  The IMF and Bank of England have also pointed to systemic-risk worries in this sector, as have I.  Still, FSOC is certainly silent and perhaps even sanguine.  This is likely because FSOC is all too often nothing more than the “book-report club” Rohit Chopra described, but it’s also because it plans to use its new systemic-risk standards to govern nonbanks outside the regulatory perimeter by way of cutting the banking-system connections pressed by the senators.  Nice thought, but the combination of pending capital rules and the limits of FSOC’s reach means it’s likely to be just thought, not the action needed ahead of the private-credit sector’s fast-rising systemic risk.

m120423.pdf

 …

4 12, 2023

Karen Petrou: Why Curbing Banks Won’t Curtail Private Credit

2023-12-04T11:03:15-05:00December 4th, 2023|The Vault|

Last Wednesday, Sens. Brown and Reed wrote to the banking agencies pressing them to cut the cords they believe unduly bind big banks to private-credit companies.  The IMF and Bank of England have also pointed to systemic-risk worries in this sector, as have I.  Still, FSOC is certainly silent and perhaps even sanguine.  This is likely because FSOC is all too often nothing more than the “book-report club” Rohit Chopra described, but it’s also because it plans to use its new systemic-risk standards to govern nonbanks outside the regulatory perimeter by way of cutting the banking-system connections pressed by the senators.  Nice thought, but the combination of pending capital rules and the limits of FSOC’s reach means it’s likely to be just thought, not the action needed ahead of the private-credit sector’s fast-rising systemic risk.

One might think that banks would do all they can to curtail private-credit competitors rather than enable them as the senators allege and much recent data substantiate.  But big banks back private capital because big banks will do the business they can even when regulators block them from doing the business they want.  Jamie Dimon for one isn’t worried that JPMorgan will find itself out in the cold.

Of course, sometimes banks should be forced out of high-risk businesses.  There is some business banks shouldn’t do because it’s far too risky for entities with direct and implicit taxpayer backstops.  This is surely the case with some of the wildly-leveraged loans private-credit companies …

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