#housing finance – Federal Financial Analytics

18 04, 2024

MORTGAGE122

Shane Smith2024-04-18T15:29:06-04:00April 18th, 2024|5- Client Report|

Housing Takes on Immediate Political Impact, Will Action Follow?

Although there was no need for further evidence that campaign season has begun, today’s Senate Banking housing hearing surely confirmed it. Chair Brown (D-OH) used his opening statement and virtually all of his questioning to focus on Ohio-specific issues; GOP senators argued forcefully that Biden Administration policies reduce housing supply and hike unaffordability. Sen. Brown talked about the need for legislation in several instances, but it remains to be seen if he plans near-term action on a specific proposal. Perhaps hoping for this, Sen. Cortez-Masto (D-NV) questioned FHFA Director Thompson about Home Loan Bank mission compliance, pressing colleagues to support a bill she introduced in the last Congress to double the System’s affordable-housing obligation and alter other aspects of their operations. Sandra Thompson announced that FHFA this year will issue proposals to address the Banks’ mission and “streamline” AHP activities – she did not say how – as well as sharply constrain insurance-company members with a new, ongoing requirement for mortgage-finance activities.

MORTGAGE122.pdf…

8 04, 2024

M040824

Shane Smith2024-04-08T13:31:04-04:00April 8th, 2024|6- Client Memo|

Why Lowering Interest Rates Now Makes Housing Even More Unaffordable

As we’ve noted, Sen. Warren and a raft of progressive Democrats are emphatically demanding that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates to promote affordable housing. However, as a new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas note confirms, low rates don’t necessarily make it easier to buy a home because house prices generally rise as rates fall. Worse still, ultra-low real rates eviscerate not just the ability of all but the well-heeled and -housed to save for a down payment, but also for much else that ensures economic resilience and long-term security. Simply put, lower for longer makes the U.S. still more economically unequal, not exactly what progressives want.

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8 04, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why Lowering Interest Rates Now Makes Housing Even More Unaffordable

Shane Smith2024-04-08T09:30:15-04:00April 8th, 2024|The Vault|

As we’ve noted, Sen. Warren and a raft of progressive Democrats are emphatically demanding that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates to promote affordable housing. However, as a new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas note confirms, low rates don’t necessarily make it easier to buy a home because house prices generally rise as rates fall. Worse still, ultra-low real rates eviscerate not just the ability of all but the well-heeled and -housed to save for a down payment, but also for much else that ensures economic resilience and long-term security. Simply put, lower for longer makes the U.S. still more economically unequal, not exactly what progressives want.

The assumption in Sen. Warren’s letter and a like-kind one from Chair Brown is that lower mortgage rates reduce the carrying cost of a mortgage and thus make it easier for lower-income households to qualify for a loan. However, this seemingly-obvious conclusion assumes that housing markets are static and, as any real-estate agent will tell you, they aren’t.

When rates go down, demand goes up and prices do the same. Or, as the Dallas Fed study observes, a one-percentage-point hike in short-term rates usually lowers house prices by 7.5 percent over two years. Just as intuition suggests that easy money spurs homebuying, so it is that tight money reduces demand and prices respond accordingly.

Or, they do in a normal market and there haven’t been any of these since the Fed sent interest rates below inflation-adjusted zero in 2008 and kept them …

12 03, 2024

DAILY031224

Eliza Allen2024-03-12T16:59:10-04:00March 12th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Hsu Says Opsrisk Not Cured by Capital, Liquidity

In remarks today on operational resilience, Acting Comptroller Hsu notes that operational risk is not “a problem that capital or liquidity can solve.” Karen Petrou has noted this most recently with regard to the operational-risk capital rules included in the current proposal, which are founded on the longstanding regulatory assumption that capital indeed buffers operational risk.

Senate Talk of Affordable Housing Turns to FHLB Role

At today’s Senate Banking Committee affordable-housing hearing, Chairman Brown (D-OH) again called for the Fed to cut interest rates to address the crisis. The hearing also touched on the role FHLBs can play, with Sen. Lummis (R-WY) stating her intentions to work with the system to expand its impact on the housing supply shortage.

CFPB to Proceed to Mortgage-Fee Rulemaking

NEC Director Brainard today said that the CFPB will pursue a rule or similar action to curtail mortgage-closing “junk” costs along the lines we identified following last week’s Bureau post in conjunction with the new White House competition strike force.

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5 02, 2024

M020524

Shane Smith2024-02-05T10:42:05-05:00February 5th, 2024|6- Client Memo|

Why Lower Rates Won’t Lead to More Affordable Housing

As Politico rightly pointed out last week, the inability of anyone who doesn’t already own a home to get one is turning into a significant political problem for incumbents of all persuasions. It might also come to be one for the Federal Reserve based on a call I got from a senior senator a couple of weeks ago. This is not exactly what the Fed needs given how hot a political potato it’s already become.

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31 01, 2024

DAILY013124

Eliza Allen2024-01-31T16:57:15-05:00January 31st, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Banking Turns to AI’s Impact on Housing Finance

Today’s lightly-attended Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing on AI and Housing focused principally on AI governance issues including accountability, model explainability, transparency, and bias. Sen. Warnock (D-GA) called for action on S. 3692, legislation to prohibit use of algorithmic systems to coordinate – and it is believed thus inflate – rental prices or reduce supply. Although Subcommittee Chairwoman Smith (D-MN) lauded AI for its potential to boost the housing supply, she and other Democrats raised serious concerns that AI reinforces biases in lending decisions.

Democrats Remain Dubious About the Capital Proposal

Today’s Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on the capital rules made it still more clear that more than a few Democrats share at least some GOP concerns. Chair Barr (R-KY) reiterated points he has frequently made about the poor analytics behind the proposal; Full Committee Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) and Rep. Green (D-TX) were unequivocal in their support. Other Democrats raised concerns many had previously expressed in comment letters, with Rep. Sherman (D-CA) pointing to problems with the proposal’s impact on capital markets and its lack of credit for private mortgage insurance and Rep. Beatty (D-OH) highlighting concerns with small business credit availability.

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30 01, 2024

DAILY013024

Eliza Allen2024-01-30T17:13:26-05:00January 30th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

FinCEN Estimates High Bank-BOI Reporting Costs

FinCEN via the Federal Register today requested comment on the estimated total annual reporting and recordkeeping burden for new Access Rule beneficial ownership information (BOI) reporting requirements (see FSM Report AML135).

Brown Puts More Pressure on Powell

Following Sen. Warren’s rate-cut demands and affordable housing concerns yesterday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Brown (D-OH) today sent a letter to FRB Chair Powell also calling for less restrictive monetary policy on grounds that elevated rates negatively impact home affordability, limit the housing supply, restrict small business growth, and dampen wages.

HFSC Targets China Sanctions, Outbound Investments

Today’s HFSC National Security Subcommittee Hearing focused on China sanctions and restrictions on outbound investments.

GOP Demands Retraction of CFPB Tech-Payment Proposal

Reiterating their opposition to the Bureau’s pending digital-payment rule (see FSM Report PAYMENT27), HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) alongside Digital Assets Subcommittee Chairman Hill (R-AR) and Rep. Flood (R-NE) sent a letter today urging the CFPB to reopen and extend the comment period and reconsider finalizing the rule as proposed.

Daily013024.pdf…

11 12, 2023

Daily121123

Shane Smith2023-12-11T16:51:51-05:00December 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Treasury Broadens Illicit Finance Scope to CRE, Investment Advisors

In connection with an order sanctioning two Afghanis for transnational corruption, Treasury and FinCEN today issued a fact sheet on actions under way to address corruption and other illicit transactions.

White House Threatens Veto on Bill Curtailing OCC, Other Agencies

The House Rules Committee is expected today to clear H.R. 357 for floor action as soon as tomorrow, prompting the White House to issue a veto threat.

Warren Presses Case for Crypto Standards in NDAA

Strengthening her position ahead of a fight with HFSC Chair McHenry (R-NC) over crypto provisions in the NDAA, Sen. Warren (D-MA) today announced that Sens. Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Luján (D-NM) alongside Senate Banking Committee members Warnock (D-GA), Butler (D-CA), and Van Hollen (D-MD) joined Sen. Warren and 14 other Senators as co-sponsors of the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act.

CGFS Wants LTV-Related Capital Rules Adjusted to Reflect House Prices

Reviewing the link between housing finance and systemic risk, the BIS Committee on the Global Financial System’s report today focused on the need for automatic stabilizers that provide macroprudential controls in this high-risk sector.

Daily121123.pdf…

23 10, 2023

M102323

Eliza Allen2023-10-23T12:03:15-04:00October 23rd, 2023|6- Client Memo|

Why the New CRA Rules Won’t Serve Communities Any Better Than the Old CRA Rules

On Tuesday, the banking agencies will release the final version of their 679-page proposal to rewrite the Community Reinvestment Act. Regrettably, much of the proposal reflected the worst of false-science staff seeking complex new models defining subjective goals combined with certainty-loving compliance officers and lawyers who just want to be told the number they need to hit, not if the number makes any sense. Unsurprisingly, there were hundreds of comment letters in which banks generally said the agencies should ease up and community groups urged still more stringent standards. But the story doesn’t end with this unremarkable line-up– in just the last few months, two major bank trade associations and one often-virulently anti-bank advocacy group agreed on one crucial thing: anything close to what the agencies proposed won’t work.

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23 10, 2023

Karen Petrou: Why the New CRA Rules Won’t Serve Communities Any Better Than the Old CRA Rules

Eliza Allen2023-10-23T12:03:22-04:00October 23rd, 2023|The Vault|

On Tuesday, the banking agencies will release the final version of their 679-page proposal to rewrite the Community Reinvestment Act. Regrettably, much of the proposal reflected the worst of false-science staff seeking complex new models defining subjective goals combined with certainty-loving compliance officers and lawyers who just want to be told the number they need to hit, not if the number makes any sense. Unsurprisingly, there were hundreds of comment letters in which banks generally said the agencies should ease up and community groups urged still more stringent standards. But the story doesn’t end with this unremarkable line-up– in just the last few months, two major bank trade associations and one often-virulently anti-bank advocacy group agreed on one crucial thing: anything close to what the agencies proposed won’t work.

There are of course sharp differences between what banks and public advocates want in a new CRA rule, but what unites them is the over-arching understanding that the new approach is a cumbersome exercise remote from the reality confronting both banks and borrowers in the least-served urban and rural communities. Banks complain – often with good reason as I showed in my book on economic inequality – that risk-based capital rules over-estimate the risk of lending to many community-focused borrowers. The new capital proposals would ameliorate some of this in their “enhanced” risk weightings, but these weightings actually don’t count for much of anything since the proposed “higher-of” standards applies current, higher weightings.

The agencies in fact acknowledge as much …