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11 01, 2023

FedFin on: An Implacable Problem With a Policy Solution

2023-01-11T16:47:56-05:00January 11th, 2023|The Vault|

As the Fed has hiked interest rates, mortgage rates have of course also gone up, sending a sudden chill through the residential market and putting home ownership even more out of reach for all but those for whom the home equity they still have after prices correct suffices for long-term wealth accumulation.  However, mortgage rates have often risen higher than expected from usual yield spreads and thus Fed tightening is even more excruciating not just for the mortgage market, but also for FHFA’s equitable-finance mission and the Fed’s hoped-for soft landing…

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.

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11 01, 2023

GSE-011123

2023-01-11T13:13:55-05:00January 11th, 2023|4- GSE Activity Report|

An Implacable Problem with a Policy Solution

As the Fed has hiked interest rates, mortgage rates have of course also gone up, sending a sudden chill through the residential market and putting home ownership even more out of reach for all but those for whom the home equity they still have after prices correct suffices for long-term wealth accumulation.  However, mortgage rates have often risen higher than expected from usual yield spreads and thus Fed tightening is even more excruciating not just for the mortgage market, but also for FHFA’s equitable-finance mission and the Fed’s hoped-for soft landing.  In this analysis, we assess the dynamics of recent mortgage pricing and what might be done about it.

GSE-011123.pdf

19 12, 2022

FedFin on: FSOC Targets Usual Suspects but Also Points to Big-BHC, Nonbank Mortgage Systemic Risk

2023-01-03T15:56:33-05:00December 19th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, this FedFin report provides an in-depth analysis of FSOC’s 2022 annual report, focusing on findings with near-term policy implications.  As always, the report is lengthy and includes many observations and market details that provide insight into Treasury and member-agency-staff thought.  Much in it reiterates concerns about short-term funding markets, CCPs, and….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

19 12, 2022

FSOC28

2022-12-19T13:00:38-05:00December 19th, 2022|5- Client Report|

FSOC Targets Usual Suspects but Also Points to Big-BHC, Nonbank Mortgage Systemic Risk

As promised, this FedFin report provides an in-depth analysis of FSOC’s 2022 annual report, focusing on findings with near-term policy implications.  As always, the report is lengthy and includes many observations and market details that provide insight into Treasury and member-agency-staff thought.  Much in it reiterates concerns about short-term funding markets, CCPs, and investment funds (with FSOC for the first time urging regulators to look not only at MMFs and OEFs, but also at collective investment vehicles).  As previously noted, the report is relatively sanguine about digital-asset systemic risk but, also reiterates findings in FSOC’s report (see Client Report CRYPTO33) demanding rapid action on a raft of reforms in this high-risk sector.  What surprised us is the discussion of large BHCs, which departs from longstanding Fed and FSOC comfort in the post-GFC regulatory regime for this sector.

FSOC28.pdf

19 12, 2022

GSE-121922

2022-12-19T12:55:45-05:00December 19th, 2022|4- GSE Activity Report|

Nonbanks Get Unwelcome FSOC Attention

As promised Friday when FSOC’s annual report was released, we here go into depth on its implications for residential housing.  Most notable to us in the lengthy report was its continuing concern about residential-housing price vulnerability, its new focus on MBS-market volatility, and specific action steps to address longstanding fears about nonbank mortgage originators and servicers.

GSE-121922.pdf

5 12, 2022

FedFin on: The Big Squeeze

2022-12-06T16:24:20-05:00December 5th, 2022|The Vault|

Making an important addition to the ongoing debate about Treasury-market liquidity, a new paper from the Bank for International Settlements provides sobering data on agency MBS liquidity with significant implications not only for secondary-market liquidity, but also primary-market stability…..

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

5 12, 2022

GSE-120522

2022-12-05T16:12:12-05:00December 5th, 2022|4- GSE Activity Report|

The Big Squeeze

Making an important addition to the ongoing debate about Treasury-market liquidity, a new paper from the Bank for International Settlements provides sobering data on agency MBS liquidity with significant implications not only for secondary-market liquidity, but also primary-market stability.  Treasury has taken some steps to enhance its market, but none of which we are aware has yet been adopted for agency paper, an omission with potentially systemic consequences if liquidity stress in this $10 trillion market turns to shove.

GSE-120522.pdf

7 09, 2022

FedFin: The Big Squeeze

2022-12-20T14:27:31-05:00September 7th, 2022|The Vault|

Reinforcing the sharp turn-around in housing markets evident since the Fed surprised markets with its first 75 bps hike, a new working paper from the San Francisco Fed provides the first hard evidence of how monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. hit listing prices hard and fast….

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

7 09, 2022

GSE-090722

2022-12-20T14:26:18-05:00September 7th, 2022|4- GSE Activity Report|

The Big Squeeze

Reinforcing the sharp turn-around in housing markets evident since the Fed surprised markets with its first 75 bps hike, a new working paper from the San Francisco Fed provides the first hard evidence of how monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. hit listing prices hard and fast.  The study’s approach is data-based, but theoretical; today’s markets suggests it’s also prescient.

GSE-090722.pdf

19 08, 2022

GSE-081922

2023-01-04T11:19:00-05:00August 19th, 2022|4- GSE Activity Report|

The Social-Impact Say-So

We look here at an interesting idea from three senior Fannie Mae officials: an index to measure a Single-Family MBS’s social impact.  The proposal seeks to enable socially conscious investors to support affordable housing for underserved communities while balancing the needs of mortgage borrowers, investors, and market function.  It also reflects the objectives laid out in Fannie Mae’s Equitable Housing Finance Plan such as providing social impact data and boosting low-income and minority homeownership.  The methodology thus lays out a way to measure performance that is no longer solely dependent on FHFA or comparisons to Freddie that Fannie might find unflattering.

GSE-081922.pdf

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