#MBS – Federal Financial Analytics

8 11, 2023

FedFin on: Rebirth at 91

Arezou Rafikian2023-11-08T16:55:16-05:00November 8th, 2023|The Vault|

Although FHFA calls its FHLB report a centenary event ahead of the System’s 2032 birthday, the agency clearly plans structural substantive reform well before that milestone. Much of what’s planned will crimp FHLB profitability, increasing the importance of what would otherwise seem like tidying-up operational improvements to protect the viability of the System’s weaker Banks. With its eye on keeping the System in line, FHFA does not even suggest it should be allowed by law or regulatory sleight-of-hand to issue MBS or …

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8 08, 2023

FedFin on: Say It’s Simple

Arezou Rafikian2023-08-09T14:19:41-04:00August 8th, 2023|The Vault|

Our most recent analysis of the inter-agency capital proposal focuses on significant changes to the rules for securitization and credit-risk transfer positions. In short, super-traditional securitizations have an easier path to the secondary market, but GSEs still beat banks. Complex ABS face often-formidable obstacles, as does CRT given or taken by banks.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

20 03, 2023

FedFin on: The Collateral Damage of the Banking Crisis

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T14:30:07-04:00March 20th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we build on FedFin’s in-depth reports about recent bank failures to detail new risks for all of the innocent bystanders in the U.S. mortgage market along with a not so-innocent bystander: the Federal Home Loan Banks. We note also some take-aways FHFA may draw from the crisis with regard to GSE regulation, resolution, and supervision. In short, things will be different assuming they don’t get worse and then still more of a paradigm shift.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

11 01, 2023

FedFin on: An Implacable Problem With a Policy Solution

Eliza Allen2023-01-11T16:47:56-05:00January 11th, 2023|The Vault|

As the Fed has hiked interest rates, mortgage rates have of course also gone up, sending a sudden chill through the residential market and putting home ownership even more out of reach for all but those for whom the home equity they still have after prices correct suffices for long-term wealth accumulation. However, mortgage rates have often risen higher than expected from usual yield spreads and thus Fed tightening is even more excruciating not just for the mortgage market, but also for FHFA’s equitable-finance mission and the Fed’s hoped-for soft landing…

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19 12, 2022

FedFin on: FSOC Targets Usual Suspects but Also Points to Big-BHC, Nonbank Mortgage Systemic Risk

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-03T15:56:33-05:00December 19th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, this FedFin report provides an in-depth analysis of FSOC’s 2022 annual report, focusing on findings with near-term policy implications. As always, the report is lengthy and includes many observations and market details that provide insight into Treasury and member-agency-staff thought. Much in it reiterates concerns about short-term funding markets, CCPs, and….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

5 12, 2022

FedFin on: The Big Squeeze

Arezou Rafikian2022-12-06T16:24:20-05:00December 5th, 2022|The Vault|

Making an important addition to the ongoing debate about Treasury-market liquidity, a new paper from the Bank for International Settlements provides sobering data on agency MBS liquidity with significant implications not only for secondary-market liquidity, but also primary-market stability…..

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7 09, 2022

FedFin: The Big Squeeze

Arezou Rafikian2022-12-20T14:27:31-05:00September 7th, 2022|The Vault|

Reinforcing the sharp turn-around in housing markets evident since the Fed surprised markets with its first 75 bps hike, a new working paper from the San Francisco Fed provides the first hard evidence of how monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. hit listing prices hard and fast….

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19 08, 2022

FedFin: The Social-Impact Say-So

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-04T11:19:39-05:00August 19th, 2022|The Vault|

We look here at an interesting idea from three senior Fannie Mae officials: an index to measure a Single-Family MBS’s social impact. The proposal seeks to enable socially conscious investors to support affordable housing for underserved communities while balancing the needs of mortgage borrowers, investors, and market function. It also reflects the objectives laid out in Fannie Mae’s Equitable Housing Finance Plan such as providing social impact data and boosting low-income and minority homeownership. …

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17 05, 2022

FedFin on: CRA Regulatory Rewrite

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-21T14:50:17-05:00May 17th, 2022|The Vault|

Following much talk about the need to update Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) rules since this was last done in 1995, federal banking agencies have finally agreed on a proposed redesign of standards essential to banks that wish to expand or acquire as well as those seeking strong community ties and the policy and political benefit these afford. Much of the complexity in the NPR results from the agencies’ decision to allow only partial credit for activities (e.g., mortgages) largely assumed in the past…

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16 05, 2022

FedFin: Minimizing Mortgages, Maximizing Community Service

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-21T15:06:30-05:00May 16th, 2022|The Vault|

As we noted last week, the federal banking agencies sighed a mighty sigh and heaved up a massive inter-agency proposal rewriting decades-old standards detailing which activities earn the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) points essential for any bank’s strategic objectives and national reputation. As discussed below, the new proposal is lengthy, complex, and in some cases analytically daunting or flat-out confusing. Still one critical conclusion is clear…

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