#OFR – Federal Financial Analytics

25 09, 2023

DAILY092523

Eliza Allen2023-09-25T16:05:07-04:00September 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF Report: CBDC Designs Could Boost Financial Inclusion

On Friday, the IMF released a report concluding that a well-designed CBDC could foster financial inclusion and act as an entry point for the unbanked to the broader financial system. This will strengthen Democratic demands for a U.S. CBDC, but we expect GOP opposition to remain firm and the Fed’s posture to retain its current focus on wholesale CBDCs.

FRB-NY: Stablecoins, MMFs Have Same Dynamic Runs

An FRB New York study today concludes that stablecoin investors behaved similarly to MMF investors in numerous recent runs. Staff found that investors consider a stablecoin to have been effectively depegged once its price drops below $0.99 which triggers a run and mirrors the dynamics of MMFs “breaking the buck.”

Senate Dems Target SIFI Designation, Scenarios to Curb Climate Risk

Senator Warren (D-MA) along with Sens. Sanders (I-VT), Heinrich (D-NM), Markey (D-MA), Whitehouse (D-RI), and Merkley (D-OR) today released a letter dated last Wednesday to Treasury Secretary Yellen and Climate Counselor Zindler calling on the Department to significantly increase the urgency with which it targets climate-related financial risk.

Daily092523.pdf…

20 09, 2023

DAILY092023

Eliza Allen2023-09-20T17:11:25-04:00September 20th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Brown, Rounds Agree: AI Credit-Underwriting Warrants Regulatory Attention

At today’s Senate Banking hearing on AI in financial services, Chairman Brown (D-OH) argued that AI should be governed by the same rules as the rest of the financial system, with new law necessary if existing rules prove inadequate.

HFSC FinCEN Bills Draw Bipartisan Support

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) at today’s markup praised the scope of bipartisan support on today’s FinCEN, sanctions, and other national security bills.

HFSC Delays Bipartisan Sanction Bill Vote

Today’s HFSC markup also considered two bills addressing sanctions policy: H.R. 5512 from Rep. Sherman (D-CA) to require bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions on Russia and Belarus and H.R. 760 from Rep. Barr (R-KY) imposing blocking sanctions on Chinese defense or surveillance companies and the third-party companies that supply them.

HFSC Dems Continue Strongly Opposing GOP Anti-CBDC Measure

The bipartisan spirit of today’s HFSC markup dissipated as Members fiercely debated H.R. 5403 from Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN), a bill that would bar the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals.

Gruenberg: New Shadow Bank Standards Would Cure a Capital Proposal Problem

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg today gave remarks arguing that FSOC along with OFR should establish a new reporting framework to assess the financial stability risks posed by nonbanks and ensure that public reporting is sufficient for market participants to understand nonbank counterparty risk.

HFSC Reports FinCEN, Sanctions, CBDC Bills

HFSC today unanimously reported H.R 760 sanctioning Chinese defense companies, H.R. 5512 requiring bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions …

25 04, 2023

DAILY042523

Eliza Allen2023-04-25T17:12:43-04:00April 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Stablecoin 2.0 Is Controversial 3.0

Ahead of Thursday’s stablecoin hearing, HFSC Republicans late yesterday released a second discussion draft of legislation that received a most equivocal response at last week’s subcommittee hearing (see Client Report CRYPTO42).

Treasury Finds Profitability to Blame for De-Risking

Treasury today released its 2023 De-Risking Report, finding that profitability principally explains why financial institutions choose to de-risk.

OFR: No Single Factor To Blame For 2019 Repo Spike

A new OFR paper on the September 2019 repo rate spike concludes that while a confluence of factors – large Treasury issuances, corporate tax deadlines, and lower levels of reserves – caused the crisis, none of them individually would have been disruptive enough to trigger the spike, although limited transparency and market segmentation exacerbated it.

Federal Agencies Launch New Anti-AI Enforcement Effort

The FTC, the Civil Rights Division of the DoJ, CFPB, and EEOC today released a joint statement pledging to enforce all relevant consumer protection, anti-discrimination, and fair competition laws not only on AI, but indeed also on all “automated systems” that the agencies believe to be within their jurisdictions.

HFSC Digital Assets Hearing Set For Jurisdictional Debate

Ahead of Thursday’s hearing on the latest stablecoin discussing draft, HFSC’s staff memo today reiterates GOP opposition to the SEC’s jurisdictional arguments.

ONRRP Revised

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today revised the terms of access to the overnight reverse-repo program, adding financial stability and bank safety-and-soundness to monetary-policy implementation as ONRRP criteria for eligible counterparties …

18 04, 2023

DAILY041823

Eliza Allen2023-04-18T17:03:30-04:00April 18th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Finds NBFIs a Source of Systemic Risk Over the Centuries

Reflecting renewed interest in “narrow banks,” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York blog posted evidence of systemic risk from nonbanks in the absence of any banks at all.

Stablecoin Compromise Faces Steep Challenges

As noted yesterday, HFSC’s Digital Asset Subcommittee is set for a Wednesday hearing clearly intended to lay the groundwork for near-term action on Chairman McHenry’s (R-NC) longstanding goal of enacting stablecoin legislation.

Despite Failures, DIF Restoration Ahead Of Schedule

At the FDIC Board’s meeting today, FDIC staff said that – while the timing for restoring the DIF to its 1.35% statutory minimum remains uncertain – the DIF could reach its statutory minimum ahead of time and by 2024.

Bowman Remains Staunch CBDC Skeptic

Reiterating that any U.S. CBDC requires Congressional approval, Gov. Bowman today also reiterated her longstanding skepticism to any such instrument.

CFPB Plans Timing Study to Buttress Junk-Fee Regs

The Federal Register today includes a CFPB comment request on its “Junk Fees Timing Study,” which would be part of a series of online lab experiments testing differences in consumer choices across different information presentations.

Warren, Reed Demand OFR Use Subpoenas To Obtain Systemic Data

Sens. Warren (D-MA) and Reed (D-RI) today urged OFR Acting Director Martin to fill data gaps around financial stability risks posed by climate change, cryptocurrencies, and repo markets.

Daily041823.pdf…

24 03, 2023

DAILY032423

Eliza Allen2023-03-24T17:13:54-04:00March 24th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Expands Attack On Fed Supervisory Actions

In yet another letter ahead of next week’s hearings, Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) and all Republican Members of the committee asked Fed Chairman Powell and FRB-SF President Daly a series of questions asserting that SVB’s failure reflects significant supervisory lapses.

FSOC Breaks The Glass

Although there is no formal announcement, FSOC will hold what is clearly an emergency, closed meeting later today per a new media advisory.

Top HFSC Republicans Join SVB-Supervisory Inquest

Following a similar letter from Senate Banking Republicans earlier today, HFSC Subcommittee Chairmans Barr (R-KY) and Huizenga (R-MI) along with Rep. Kim (R-CA) sent yet another letter to Vice Chair Barr and FRB-SF President Daly also demanding detailed supervisory-related information on SVB.

Reserve Banks Promise to Bear Some Sometime Soon

Under ever-growing pressure, all of the Federal Reserve Banks today under the New York Fed’s aegis announced a common transparency policy.

HFSC GOP Targets State Bank Supervisors

Top House Republicans today brought state banking commissions into the SVB and SBNY fray, asking each for extensive details on recent actions and setting the April 6 deadline now evident in all recent GOP requests in this arena.

GOP Leaders Also Demand FSOC Answers

HFSC Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) and Huizenga (R-MI) today also sent letters to FSOC Chair Yellen and Council of Inspectors General on Financial Oversight Chair Delmar requesting detailed information on meetings surrounding the banking agencies’ March 12 decision to invoke a systemic risk exception for SVB …

23 03, 2023

DAILY032323

Eliza Allen2023-03-23T17:09:59-04:00March 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OFR Study Predicts Household Gains, Banking Instability From Digital Currencies

A new OFR working paper concludes that full integration of digital currencies into the economy would reduce financial-system volatility and improve household welfare, but also increase the probability of a banking crisis.

HFSC Poses Still Tougher SVB/SBNY Resolution Questions

Following tough GOP letters to the Fed and FDIC earlier this week, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Subcommittee Chair Hill (R-AR) last night sent even sterner missives to Chairman Gruenberg and Secretary Yellen.

Bipartisan Push Begins For CEO Clawbacks

Ahead of its first of many hearings on the collapse of SVB and SBNY, Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) today sent letters to the former CEOs of the banks demanding that they answer for the bank failures, noting also that they will be expected to testify before the Committee if they are unable to do so next week.

OFR Blog: CRE, Residential Markets Pose Little Systemic Risk

Despite growing concerns about CRE and even potential systemic risk, an OFR blog post today concludes that neither the residential nor commercial real estate market poses a significant threat to the financial system.

Basel Stands By Its Rules, Contemplates New Supervisory Standards

The Basel Committee’s release following its March 14 meeting unsurprisingly notes the bank failures preceding it just days before, but attributes them principally to poor risk management in the face of rising rates.

GSEs Seek Public Comment on Credit Score Model Transition

The FHFA today announced…

12 01, 2023

DAILY011223

Eliza Allen2023-01-12T16:51:37-05:00January 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OCC Tightens Fair-Lending Review

Acting Comptroller Hsu took the occasion today of release of a new fair-lending manual to emphasize the OCC’s commitment to ending credit discrimination.

McHenry Chairmanship Starts With CFPB Confrontation

In his first financial-policy action since becoming HFSC Chairman, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) today blasted the Bureau and its “reckless” Director for what he described as expanding its authority beyond congressional intent.

FRB-NY Staff Renew Debate Over FBO Liquidity, Market Impact

A new post from FRB-NY staff assesses the funding strategies of FBO branches and agencies to judge their current impact setting dollar-liquidity pricing in the U.S. wholesale funding market.

OFR Cites Heightened Systemic Risk, MMF Worries

In its annual report on 2021, OFR has concluded that financial stability risks are generally elevated due to macroeconomic tightening, inflation, climate change and volatility in Treasury, crypto, and commodity markets.

DOJ Lands Unprecedented Redlining Settlement

Continuing the Administration’s racial-equity campaign, the Department of Justice today announced an historic settlement with City National Bank.

Daily011223.pdf…

5 01, 2023

DAILY010523

Eliza Allen2023-01-05T17:01:33-05:00January 5th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OFR Tackles Repo-Market Data Transparency

As pressed by the FSOC (see Client Report FSOC28), OFR today released a sweeping proposal to gather daily data on the uncleared bilateral repo market. The proposal follows a data-collection pilot that leads OFR now to detail 33 daily reporting items that would be collected from the forty largest bank and nonbank primary dealers in this systemic-critical sector.

OCC Reiterates Long Term Principles

The OCC today published its 2022 Annual Report, revealing little of its priorities for 2023. It does, however, reiterate long-term goals laid out by Acting Comptroller Hsu, including guarding against complacency, addressing inequality, adapting to digitalization, and managing climate risk.

Daily010523.pdf…

9 09, 2022

DAILY090922

Eliza Allen2022-10-24T12:01:09-04:00September 9th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

White House Reaffirms Anti-Algo Stand

The White House late yesterday announced core bigtech policy principles. These are extremely general and do not go as far in areas such as antitrust that progressives sought.

U.S. Announces Start of Work on Basel “End Game”

Ahead of what might otherwise have been a fractious Basel Committee meeting, the Fed, OCC, and FDIC today reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to finalize what FRB Vice Chair Barr Wednesday called the Basel III “end-game.”

Basel Chair Announces Preliminary AI Priorities

Pablo Hernández de Cos, Chair of the Basel Committee, announced today the work that regulators plan on AI and algorithmic decision-making.

OFR Details Climate Data-Sharing Efforts

Acting OFR Director James Martin today addressed the need for integrated climate-related financial data and challenges to forecasting and modeling climate risk.

Liang Stresses Climate-Resiliency

Treasury Under Secretary Liang today reiterated an array of agency and Administration climate-risk priorities, emphasizing ongoing Treasury and FSOC climate resiliency efforts and underscoring Treasury’s commitment to a net-zero economy.

Treasury To Issue Price-Cap Sanction Guidance

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo today made it clear that enforcement of the anti-Russia oil-price caps will depend not only on restricting shipping insurance, but also doing so for financial and payment services.

Daily090922.pdf…

23 08, 2022

DAILY082322

Eliza Allen2023-01-04T10:40:24-05:00August 23rd, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Life Insurers Depend on FHLB Advances for Stress Liquidity, Long-Term Funding

Reflecting longstanding fears about life-insurance run-risk (see Client Report SYSTEMIC92), a new research note from the Federal Reserve finds that life insurers were quick to establish liquidity buffers when Covid hit in 2020, largely doing so via FHLB advances and interest-rate derivative margins.

JEC Financial Inclusion Report Calls for Postal Banking, Crypto Regulation

The Joint Economic Committee yesterday afternoon released a report on the barriers that people of color and low-income communities face accessing financial services, concluding that traditional banks discriminate, new nonbank offerings may prove predatory, and policy solutions are essential.

OFR: Lower-Risk Hedge Funds Lead to Higher Treasury-Market Stress

A new OFR working paper finds that changes in aggregate hedge fund exposures are related to Treasury yield changes in economically and statistically significant ways, with managed futures and multi-strategy funds having the highest impact on Treasury prices.

FHFA Advances Equity Campaign with New Committee

Building on its equitable housing campaign, FHFA today announced an advisory committee on affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing. It will provide analysis focused on Fannie, Freddie, and the FHLBs in areas such as the barriers to and need for regulatory or policy changes to expand affordable, equitable, and sustainable housing.

Daily082322.pdf…