#payment-system

10 02, 2025

Karen Petrou: Payment-System Politics and the Havoc It Wreaks

Shane Smith2025-02-10T09:16:53-05:00February 10th, 2025|The Vault|

Any bank that granted even just “read-only” access to its payment services with as few controls as the U.S. Treasury would and should be harshly sanctioned by its supervisors. Who steps in to ensure the smooth functioning of the multi-trillion Treasury payment system? Do any of Mr. Musk’s operatives know what would happen if they pulled the wrong plug and disabled critical payments on U.S. debt or to American citizens such as those for Social Security? And, what if they don’t care if they disrupt payments if they believe this suits a political purpose?

When I wrote my memo last week hoping that these fears are alarmist, we didn’t know then what we know now about unlimited payment system access by a key DOGE warrior since named to head the Fiscal Service and the youth, inexperience, and dubious histories of the payment-system teams. Do any of them know that payment-system finality is an essential element of payment-system credibility and financial-system stability or do they view the payment system as a video game with a prize for the team member who finds the target that rings the loudest political bell? Do any of these Trump appointees know that making even a little mistake could be catastrophic in a system handling trillions of dollars in billions of transactions or are they looking for viral moments on encrypted social-media platforms so they become the envy of like-minded young men?

As FedFin noted last week, what Congress and the press took as a pledge …

3 02, 2025

Karen Petrou: Why Playing with Treasury’s Payment System is Playing with Fire

Shane Smith2025-02-03T09:04:54-05:00February 3rd, 2025|The Vault|

In just two weeks, Donald Trump has done something no one ever expected which he may not even intend: overturning the axiomatic expectation that a full-faith-and-credit obligation of the United States government is the best there is. Now, the U.S. will honor its commitments only if it still likes them. Anything that upends financial-market axioms stokes systemic risk and stoking is now so heated that it threatens even the multi-trillion Treasury market on which U.S. prosperity and global financial stability depend.

Is this alarmist? Yes, but then who would have thought the White House would issue an edict freezing all federal funding or maybe just some federal funding even though more than just some federal funding was frozen? Who would have thought the U.S. would cease all but a very few foreign-aid payments including those with other sovereign governments no matter which geopolitical or humanitarian interests are sacrificed? Even if some of this was audible on the campaign trail, none of it was thinkable to anyone counting on constitutional checks and balances along with a sound sense by someone in the White House of second-order effects.

It is in this context that one more Trump Administration action is particularly worrisome and why I fear even for the once-sacrosanct promise that the U.S. will not just honor its commitments, but also pay its bills. Elon Musk’s acolytes at DOGE have now been granted unfettered access to the Treasury payment system. Why?

Maybe it’s just curiosity or maybe DOGE wants to update …

13 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: The Fate of the Federal Reserve

Arezou Rafikian2024-11-14T15:45:31-05:00November 13th, 2024|The Vault|

In a recent client brief, we provided our forecast of what might happen to Federal Reserve independence, process, powers, and personnel under either a Harris or Trump presidency. This is of course no longer an either/or matter, with this report thus reviewing and, where needed, updating our initial assessment of what Mr. Trump could do to the central bank even where Chair Powell says he can’t. Sherrod Brown’s defeat makes the Fed particularly vulnerable in the Senate, where Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) stands a strong chance of becoming the Banking Committee’s ranking Democrat. She and incoming chair Tim Scott (R-SC) will agree on a lot about the Fed, especially if Sen. Rick Scott – a frequent Warren ally on the Fed front – becomes Majority Leader….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

30 09, 2024

Karen Petrou: How DOJ’s Case Against Visa Could Make Debit-Card Markets Still More Concentrated

Eliza Allen2024-09-30T11:29:16-04:00September 30th, 2024|The Vault|

In our recent paper on bank-merger policy, we noted that over-stringent merger policy is likely to lead to unintended and perverse consequences. This emphatically is not to say that all bank mergers are good mergers, but rather to emphasize that blocking all mergers based on arbitrary criteria may well backfire and lead to still-greater concentration in a market defined as much by regulatory-arbitrage opportunities as competitiveness. Case in point: Justice may rightly want to bring Visa to heel, but its bank-merger policy could simultaneously block the kinds of bank consortia that would otherwise be able to continue market-critical card processing and also bring it under the regulatory umbrella. If DOJ successfully sues Visa, its bank-merger policy is likely to replace one disgraced omnipotent network-effect competitor with another omnipotent network-effect competitor rather than one or more regulated networks comprised of regulated, competing banks.

One of the often-overlooked – but very important – aspects of new merger policy from the Department of Justice is its dark view of financial networks and platforms. These are of course most pertinent in the payment system where, as one payment executive recently put it, “payment is a matter of volumes. If you don’t have volumes, you don’t have the capacity to be competitive.” Put another way, payment systems are network-effect entities and, unless Justice understands this, the only bank payment-system providers will be one or more of the very biggest banks that don’t need third-party networks to generate scale. Existing bank consortia of different-sized …

8 07, 2024

Karen Petrou: What MAGA Republicans and Rohit Chopra Both Want

Eliza Allen2024-07-08T13:20:21-04:00July 8th, 2024|The Vault|

Following last week’s celebration of American independence, my thoughts turned to the confluence of concern from both sides of the political spectrum about an issue at the heart of the Bill of Rights: “financial censorship.” When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and CFPB Director Chopra agree – as they do – on a hot-button point such as freedom of thought as it may be expressed in financial transactions, a new framework is upon us no matter who wins in November. Virtuous as this ideal is, putting it into practice is fraught with consequences, more than a few unintended.

That Mr. Chopra chose to address the Federalist Society is notable in and of itself. I’ve done this more than a few times and emerged not only unscathed, but often enlightened. But that was before Democrats viewed the Society as a cabal meant to subvert rules such as those Mr. Chopra is fond of issuing. But the CFPB director knew his crowd – he and even super-MAGA conservatives fear that powerful financial companies threaten freedom of thought because giant platforms have undue control over each of our wallets. This may not be true, but at least one such company gave it a try and those taking aim at financial censorships think that once is enough, and they are right.

However, the focus on financial censorship goes beyond what payment companies allow us to express via what we purchase. The debate is over a decade old, beginning as it did when Obama Administration banking …

5 03, 2024

FedFin on: Consumer-Financial Product Marketing Practices

Arezou Rafikian2024-03-05T16:34:22-05:00March 5th, 2024|The Vault|

The CFPB has issued a circular essentially banning digital and perhaps all other consumer-finance comparison-shopping and lead-generation tools for credit cards and other products not covered by prior orders. These activities could continue, but only as long as the comparison or lead is completely objective as the Bureau may come to judge it under complex and sometimes conflicting standards. The circular follows similar CFPB actions outside the Administrative Procedure Act even though the agency clearly intends to enforce its new approach both directly and in concert with other state and federal agencies….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

26 02, 2024

Karen Petrou: The Unintended Consequences of Blocking the Credit-Card Merger

Eliza Allen2024-04-12T09:46:02-04:00February 26th, 2024|The Vault|

There is no doubt that the banking agencies have approved all too many dubious merger applications along with charter conversions of convenience. However, the debate roiling over the Capital One/Discover merger harkens to an earlier age of thousands more prosperous small banks all operating strictly within a perimeter guarded by top-notch consumer, community, and prudential regulators. Whether this ever existed is at best uncertain. What is for sure is that all this nostalgia for a halcyon past will hasten a future dominated by GSIBs and systemic-scale nonbanks still operating outside flimsy regulatory guardrails.

The best way to demonstrate this awkward certainty is to run a counter-factual – that is, think about what the world would look like if opponents of the Capital One/Discover deal get their way. Would we quickly see a return to card competition housed firmly within a tightly-regulated system? Would the payment system be loosed from Visa and Mastercard’s grip? Would merchants see the dawn of a new era of itsy-bitsy interchange fees? Would card rates plummet and rewards stay splendiferous? I very much doubt it. Space here does not permit a detailed assessment of the analytics underlying my conclusions, so let’s go straight to each of them.

First, banning the CapOne/Discover deal would not ensure robust card competition under strict bank regulation. JPMorgan’s and American Express’ formidable stakes could grow because credit-card lending is a business dependent on economies of scale and scope vital to capital-efficiency through the secondary market. However, large banks will …

1 02, 2023

FedFin on: State Member Bank Powers

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-01T16:54:12-05:00February 1st, 2023|The Vault|

In conjunction with rejecting an uninsured crypto bank’s application for Federal Reserve membership, the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement conforming state member bank powers only to those authorized for national banks even if the state member is an uninsured depository institution. While it is possible for state member banks to gain greater powers following Fed deliberations, the new approach sharply limits the ability of states to empower uninsured charters not only focused on cryptoasset activities, but….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

5 12, 2022

Karen Petrou: Bank Canaries in the Crypto Mineshaft

Arezou Rafikian2022-12-05T16:34:33-05:00December 5th, 2022|The Vault|

Just because crypto hasn’t triggered a systemic collapse doesn’t mean that it won’t be the perpetrator of quiet banking crashes. We would do well to remember that the 2008 calamity came shortly after the collapse of small subprime-mortgage finance companies. These would have been proverbial dead canaries had anyone looked down the mineshaft. And, even as the U.S. subprime crashes formed into a single, torrential crisis, bank regulators confidently foretold no systemic impact because they comfortably believed that no bank had undue exposure to high-risk mortgages. So bank regulators still say now when it comes to crypto and let’s hope the outcome is different this time. However, bits and pieces of bank wreckage are already to be found in FTX’s rubble and may well surface as the crypto tide continues to ebb. No bank shipwrecks have emerged, but some of the wreckage has the look of a sizeable hull.

The most tantalizing bit of banking wreckage is a super-tiny Washington State bank which FTX appears to have surreptitiously acquired. As the New York Times reported, one of FTX’s affiliates last March invested more than double all the capital previously held in Farmington State Bank, doing so in a carefully-structured way to avoid triggering legal control thresholds. The bank is the nation’s 26^th smallest and, after this generous investment, it deposits went up about 600 percent from its initial $10 million level via four new accounts. Sill more intriguingly, Farmington’s crypto ties via shadow owners appear to go back to …

31 10, 2022

FedFin on: “Surprise” Fee Restrictions

Arezou Rafikian2022-11-01T16:55:42-04:00October 31st, 2022|The Vault|

In conjunction with a Presidential speech and new White House initiative against “junk fees,” the CFPB has accelerated its own efforts in this arena with two new policy directives. As with many other recent Bureau actions, the new circular and bulletin do not take the form of notice-and-comment rulemakings, but rather are directives with express enforcement implications unless or until the courts overturn them, the General Accounting Office intervenes to bar guidance outside the rulemaking process as it did years ago related to inter-agency leveraged-loan standards, or new law reconfigures the agency. The most immediate implication of these edicts is a ban on blanket rejected deposit fees and further constraints on overdraft fees.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…