#stress test – Federal Financial Analytics

16 04, 2024

DAILY041624

Eliza Allen2024-04-16T17:10:39-04:00April 16th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

House GOP Takes on New Merger Guidelines

The House Small Business Committee today sent a GOP letter to the FTC and Justice Department strongly protesting new merger guidelines (see FSM Report MERGER13) on grounds that they sharply curtail needed small-business capital.

House Hikes Iran Sanctions

Working through a series of sanctions bills in the wake of recent geopolitical developments, the House yesterday voted 294-105 to advance H.R. 5921, a bill introduced by Rep. Huizenga (R-MI) that prohibits Treasury from authorizing transactions by U.S. financial institutions in connection with Iranian imports or exports other than food, medicine, and other humanitarian assistance.

House Passes Bill Targeting China-Iran Petroleum Trade

Continuing its response to recent geopolitical events, the House yesterday voted by a 383-11 margin to pass H.R. 5923, a bill from Reps. Lawler (R-NY) and Gottheimer (D-NJ) that would require the President to periodically determine if any Chinese financial institutions have purchased petroleum or petroleum products from Iran, stating that U.S. financial institutions also may not open or maintain certain accounts with Chinese institutions that have done so.

Warren Again Targets OCC Merger Decisions

Continuing recent attacks on the OCC’s approach to mergers, Sens. Warren (D-MA) and Blumenthal (D-CT) yesterday sent a letter to Acting Comptroller Hsu sharply criticizing the agency’s decision first to allow NYCB to acquire Flagstar bank and then do the same shortly thereafter for Signature.

OCC Toughens LCR, NSFR via New Reporting Requirements

The OCC today sought public comment as required by law for …

1 04, 2024

M040124

Eliza Allen2024-04-01T11:17:29-04:00April 1st, 2024|6- Client Memo|

The Frightening Similarity Between Key Bridge and Bank Stress Tests

On Friday, the Washington Post reported that Key Bridge passed all its stress tests before it fell into the harbor. These were well-established protocols looking at structural resilience – acceptable, if not awesome – and, after 9/11, also at terrorist attack. That a giant container ship might plow into the bridge was not contemplated even though this has happened before in the U.S. and not that long ago. Which brings me to bank stress-testing and how unlikely it is to matter under actual, acute stress because the current U.S. methodology correlates risk across big banks in ways that can make bad a lot worse. Even more troubling, tests still don’t look over the banking parapet.

M040124.pdf…

1 04, 2024

Karen Petrou: The Frightening Similarity Between Key Bridge and Bank Stress Tests

Eliza Allen2024-04-12T09:41:28-04:00April 1st, 2024|The Vault|

On Friday, the Washington Post reported that Key Bridge passed all its stress tests before it fell into the harbor. These were well-established protocols looking at structural resilience – acceptable, if not awesome – and, after 9/11, also at terrorist attack. That a giant container ship might plow into the bridge was not contemplated even though this has happened before in the U.S. and not that long ago. Which brings me to bank stress-testing and how unlikely it is to matter under actual, acute stress because the current U.S. methodology correlates risk across big banks in ways that can make bad a lot worse. Even more troubling, tests still don’t look over the banking parapet.

To be sure, the Fed’s semi-annual financial-stability reports (see Client Report SYSTEMIC97) muse about risks that lurk outside the largest banks, and FSOC dutifully catalogs nonbank risk each and every year in a copious annual report (see Client Report FSOC29). Last year, FSOC also said a lot about what might someday be done to address it via systemic designation (see FSM Report SIFI36). But what’s being done, not just said, about nonbank risk even as inter-connections become ever more entwined? Not much in the U.S. even though other national regulators are taking meaningful steps first to know where it lies and then to curtail it.

For example, the Bank of England and Australia’s Prudential Regulatory Authority are quickly moving past bank-centric stress testing, with Australia importantly looking not just within the financial …

4 03, 2024

DAILY030424

Eliza Allen2024-03-04T16:58:40-05:00March 4th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Targets Prime-Broker Risk

The BIS quarterly review contains an assessment of the risk prime brokers may pose both to GSIBs and financial stability. This sector has long been a concern of central bankers and risk managers, but the BIS analysis is the first in recent years to quantify it and decompose key risk drivers (e.g., wrong-way risk) to conclude that the inter-connections between hedge funds and prime brokers are a source of systemic instability and potential hazard to banks as evidenced all too clearly last year at Credit Suisse. These risks are of course also a key part of the Fed’s new exploratory stress-test related to hedge funds (see Client Report STRESS32).

Daily030424.pdf…

16 02, 2024

GSE-021624

Shane Smith2024-02-16T11:18:38-05:00February 16th, 2024|4- GSE Activity Report|

All Stressed Out

In this report, we build on our in-depth analysis yesterday of the Fed’s new stress-test scenarios to focus on their mortgage-market impact. The binding stress tests won’t make portfolio mortgage finance any easier, but they also won’t make it much worse. However, new “exploratory” stress tests will take interest-rate risk into account with particular attention to mortgages and MBS. That won’t help.

GSE-021624.pdf…

15 02, 2024

STRESS32

Eliza Allen2024-02-15T15:42:00-05:00February 15th, 2024|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: New Fed Stress Tests are a lot Like the Old Fed Stress Tests

In this report, we assess the strategic and policy implications of the Fed’s new stress-test regime. Released today, it incorporates new “exploratory” scenarios previewed by Vice Chair Barr as a response to the significant stress-test omissions laid bare in the March banking crisis. However, these exploratory tests will not directly factor into the SCB, which will also be calibrated to current capital rules since the banking agencies are now most unlikely to finalize these in time for SCB calculations later this year. We nonetheless expect bank supervisors to run bank results against internal models premised on new capital requirements, using supervisory discretion to address any capital shortfalls they feel warrant distribution restrictions regardless of formal test results. Similarly, we think supervisors will take near-term action if any of the exploratory scenarios points to near-term risk.

STRESS32.pdf…

22 01, 2024

DAILY012224

Eliza Allen2024-01-22T16:57:16-05:00January 22nd, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB Reconsiders Interchange-Fee Cuts

Bowing to critics in the banking industry and on the Board, the Federal Reserve today extended the comment period on its debit-card interchange fee proposal (see FSM report INTERCHANGE12) by a surprisingly-long ninety days to May 12. The extension is in part due to the Board’s decision to publish additional interchange fee cap data which may have persuaded the Board that the initial data analysis supporting a mandatory pricing reduction was incorrect.

OIG Finds Reserve-Bank Trades Legal, But Problematic

The Federal Reserve’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) today released long-awaited reviews of personal trades by former Dallas and Boston Reserve Bank Presidents two years ago that raised numerous and often vociferous assertions of conflicts of interest. Indeed, Sen. Warren (D-MA) stated that she believed these epitomized a “culture of corruption” at the Fed, introducing bipartisan legislation to force considerably more transparency at the Reserve Banks.

FSB Plans Global Run-Risk Buffers

The head of the Financial Stability Board, Secretary General John Schindler, today briefed media on the global regulator’s plans to brief the G20 in October about viral-run risk and the standards needed to avert it. Mr. Schindler said little about what the FSB is likely to propose although the Basel Committee is now considering rewrites to global LCR and NSFR standards likely to be reflected in the FSB’s recommendations.

Daily012224.pdf…

12 01, 2024

DAILY011224

Eliza Allen2024-01-12T15:31:11-05:00January 12th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Emmer, HFSC GOP Reintroduce FSOC Oversight Measure

Following a hearing earlier this week at which GOP Members reiterated longstanding FSOC criticism, House Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) has reintroduced legislation along with ten other HFSC Republicans to bring FSOC under congressional appropriations.

HFSC Bipartisan AI Task Force Already Divided on Key Priorities

Reflecting growing concern about AI’s risks (see Client Report FSOC29), HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) yesterday announced the creation of a bipartisan AI Working Group to be led by Digital Assets Subcommittee Chairman Hill (R-AR) and Ranking Member Lynch (D-MA).

House Passes Measures to Check Chinese Economic Power

The House today passed several bills addressing the role of China in IMF and World Bank policy and a renewed attempt to limit what many Members of Congress consider Chinese currency manipulation (H. R. 839).

The Fed Becomes a Big Loser

The Federal Reserve System today released its preliminary FY23 financial results, the first look into the System’s operating condition above and beyond its significant mark-to-market losses.

Daily011224.pdf…

9 01, 2024

DAILY010924

Eliza Allen2024-01-09T16:48:15-05:00January 9th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Now Tackles Supervisory Transparency

In remarks late yesterday, FRB Gov. Bowman added a new concern: supervisory transparency. She indicated that the Fed’s supervisory expectations have changed to the point at which some state agencies think the Fed goes too far, but banks have no way of anticipating possible supervisory injunctions. As a result, she argues for near-term transparency via public notice-and-comment guidance or rulemaking.

Barr Bows a Bit

Answering questions today, FRB Vice Chair Barr indicated that the BTFP may well close on March 11, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the Fed’s emergency-liquidity mandate. That said, loans will be extended until the one-year anniversary and may remain until 2025. He also outlined a significant compromise on the operational-risk section of the end-game rules (see FSM Report OPSRISK22), more closely aligning the proposal with the Basel standards as our outlook anticipated.

Daily010924.pdf…

3 01, 2024

DAILY010324

Eliza Allen2024-01-03T16:38:18-05:00January 3rd, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

EBA Plans Full-Bore NBFI Crackdown

We will shortly provide clients with an in-depth analysis of notable changes to call reporting released for comment late last year. Today’s Financial Times interviews José Manuel Campa, the chair of the European Banking Authority (EBA), whose comments on NBFIs make it clear that, as we expected, the U.S. action is part of a broader global push to map bank/NBFI interconnections and then curtail them. The EBA is also planning to stress-test these interconnections, a move we expect also from the Fed when it moves forward on Vice Chair Barr’s multi-scenario test plans.

Women Do Too Know

The Federal Reserve Board this week has issued a staff note finding that the so-called financial literacy gender gap is largely driven by study design, not gender differences in financial literacy. This has considerable implications for many financial-literacy programs now specifically targeted to women. The note finds that women are much more likely than men to utilize the “don’t know” choice even though men and women actually respond incorrectly at similar rates.

Daily010324.pdf…