13 01, 2023


2023-01-13T16:42:19-05:00January 13th, 2023|3- This Week|

Tumult in the House

As is patently clear from all the discourse following Kevin McCarthy’s fifteenth ballot win for the House gavel, the “lower body” has taken a few shots across its institutional knee-cap.  However, we think experienced House Members with ambitions for higher office along with affinity for strongly-conservative policies will find a way to move legislation on the GOP side of the aisle.  Less clear is what Democrats will do given the Speaker’s pledge to bring every bill to the floor on an open rule – a procedure allowing them considerable scope both for substantive legislative change and political theater.  If the Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) thinks his party’s bread is buttered on the side of showing it can govern, some bills will move forward without toxic Democratic change; if not, not.  All is, thus, a muddle in which there may well be a middle.


14 01, 2022


2023-04-24T15:20:35-04:00January 14th, 2022|3- This Week|

Filling Out the Fed

Last week was an eventful week for the Federal Reserve, not only due to critical appointments and confirmations, but also because the latest round of inflation data has made the central bank’s forecasting skills seem still less prescient and its power to determine the macro economy even more precarious.  As we noted in our reports (see below), Senate Republicans appear ready to let Mr. Powell off the hook, doubtless because they view him as the least objectionable option from their perspective than anyone else President Biden might nominate.  Instead, they have targeted Lael Brainard’s vice-chair nomination as the one on which they’ll take an anti-inflation stand.  For good measure, Republicans are also and more quietly signaling to the Fed that, if they’re unhappy with either monetary or regulatory policy, they will stop just talking about Fed independence and start taking it away.


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