A Central Bank Very Much in the Middle
As always, we will provide clients with in-depth analyses after Chair Powell comes before Congress later this week to face the usual fusillade of political inquiry along with policy questions. As before (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE74), Mr. Powell will face hard questioning from Republicans on the pending capital rules, with many now trying to pin him down on likely changes and the extent to which Mr. Powell’s promise of consensus before a final rule still holds. A lot of questions will also come from both sides of the aisle on bank mergers, with House Democrats demanding a new merger policy, Sen. Warren (D-MA) trying to get Mr. Powell to signal disapproval of the CapOne/Discover deal – he won’t, and Republicans trying to get Mr. Powell to say that deals such as this one must get done to ensure regional-bank survival – again, he won’t. We also expect a new grilling from the GOP on Fed emergency-liquidity powers, along with continuing questions on climate risk, CBDC, and the quality of bank supervision. The fate of NYCB by the time of the hearing will also be a major preoccupation on both sides of the aisle even if bad doesn’t immediately go to worse. Democrats will try to shore up CBDC but many are also troubled by emergency-liquidity powers. All sides will of course take much of the hearing’s bandwidth by pushing Mr. Powell to go one way or the other on fiscal policy, interest rates, inflation, the Fed’s portfolio, and its relations with other global central banks. At the end of two wearying days, we’ll not sure what any of us will have learned, but we’ll be sure to highlight what we glean in our reports.