Eliza Allen – Federal Financial Analytics

31 05, 2023

DAILY053123

Eliza Allen2023-05-31T17:00:40-04:00May 31st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF: Housing Risk Not At GFC Level, Still Worrisome

While falling home prices are unlikely to trigger another financial crisis, an IMF blog post today finds that a drop could still harm the global economic outlook.

FDIC Tries Guarded Optimism

The FDIC’s first-quarter report on the condition of the U.S. banking industry was guardedly optimistic, but that in part appears to be due to the way in which the agency foresees its problems. Problem banks are up by 4 to 43 with $58 billion in assets among them.

End-Game Starts Soon

FRB Governor and Vice-Chair nominee Jefferson today expanded on the Fed’s financial-stability objectives, resolutely disavowing any of the credit-allocation ambitions Republicans sometimes ascribe to its work on climate risk.

CFPB Small-Business Disclosures Go Live

The Federal Register today includes the CFPB’s controversial final rule on small business data collection published late March which the Bureau says will increase transparency in small business lending, promote economic development, and combat unlawful discrimination.

FHA Expands Pandemic Mortgage Relief As Rates Rise

FHA today requested comment on a new loss mitigation proposal called the Payment Supplement Partial Claim allowing servicers to use FHA funds to bring a borrower’s mortgage current and temporarily reduce principal payments.

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30 05, 2023

Daily053023

Eliza Allen2023-05-30T17:13:13-04:00May 30th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Fed Study Validates Bank/Shadow-Bank Interconnections, Systemic Risk

A new study by staff from the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and New York evaluates the banking-sector impact of fire sales across multiple NBFI segments, finding numerous bank vulnerabilities to nonbanks not only through direct exposures, but also through complex, indirect channels.

McHenry Protests U.S. Outbound-Investment Constraints

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) sent a letter to Secretary Yellen late Friday demanding information about a potential executive order that would enable CFIUS to prohibit or require notification of outbound investments into China, stating that the Administration’s interest in capital controls necessitates Congressional oversight.

IMF Article Calls SVB Resolution “Riskless Capitalism”

An article in the IMF’s forthcoming Finance and Development magazine issue argues that SVB’s uninsured depositors enjoyed “riskless capitalism,” concluding that high moral hazard-risks will persist without incentives for depositor due diligence.

FTC Demands Greater Debit-Card Data Access

The FTC today finalized a consent order requiring Mastercard to provide competing card networks with the customer account information necessary to process debit payments, alleging that the company illegally withheld that information to prevent merchants from using its competitors or Mastercard-branded debit cards saved in e-wallets outside of traditional networks.

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26 05, 2023

Al052923

Eliza Allen2023-05-26T12:21:18-04:00May 26th, 2023|3- This Week|

We Know You’re Not Watching This Space

With all eyes focused on the disastrous brinksmanship playing out with regard to the debt ceiling, we know you’ll have little time for financial policy over the U.S. holiday weekend. That’s not to say that there weren’t any important developments last week – see below for analyses thereon – nor that next week won’t be busy even if all magically turns right with U.S. fiscal policy. We’ll be watching, analyzing, and anticipating, coming back at you Tuesday with a new Petrou memo and much more unless something so important breaks over the weekend that we feel we must interrupt what little off-time we’ll all try to find.

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24 05, 2023

DAILY052423

Eliza Allen2023-05-24T17:16:58-04:00May 24th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

New Fed Paper Shows Link Between Twitter, Market Sentiment, Run Risk

A new FRB staff paper uses natural-language models and social-media data to craft a “twitter sentiment index” (TSI) that is then compared to actual market conditions.

Democrats Press Clawback, Regulatory Fixes as HFSC Considers Transparency Measures

Today’s HFSC mark-up so far has focused on one of Rep. Barr’s (R-KY) three regulatory transparency bills, with Democrats proposing a series of amendments without any deciding votes.

House Oversight Panel Focuses On Supervisory Accountability, Reform

At today’s hearing of the Financial Services Subcommittee of House Oversight on bank failures and supervision at the San Francisco Fed, Subcommittee Chairwoman McClain (R-MI) opened with a series of sharply-worded questions on who oversaw the bank, what factors might have distracted them from traditional supervision, why glaring risk factors were not more forcefully addressed, whether regulators were unduly complacent, whether the Fed and FDIC used all of their regulatory tools, and if the agencies have been objective and transparent in their bank failure post-mortems as well as their accounts of the systemic risk exception.

Markup Votes Postponed for Transparency, LLPA Bills

Since our last alert, Democrats continued to submit amendments for Rep Barr’s (R-KY) transparency bill at today’s HFSC markup and party lines cemented over Rep. Davidson’s (R-OH) LLPA bill.

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23 05, 2023

DAILY052323

Eliza Allen2023-05-23T17:15:40-04:00May 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

House Advances Consensus Anti-China Reporting Legislation

The House yesterday voted 400-5 to approve H.R. 1156, bipartisan legislation addressing Congress’ China concerns by mandating a new study.

Gruenberg Endorses Bank On Accounts, Notes Continuing Racial Gaps

In remarks today largely devoid of policy implications, Chairman Gruenberg praised Bank On’s impact on financial inclusion, but noted that racial divides still persist as Black and Hispanic households are more likely to be unbanked than White ones at every income level.

IOSCO Aims at Ending Crypto-Market Arbitrage

Advancing global crypto standards, the International Organization of Securities Commissions today released a consultative report on the contentious question of centralized-market regulation with which a joint HFSC/AG Committee process is now wrestling (see Client Report CRYPTO43).

HFSC GOP Blasts GSE Fees, Supports FHLB System

Today’s HFSC hearing with FHFA Director Thompson was largely the LLPA battle we anticipated, with Republicans lambasting recent actions and Democrats tartly responding that Republicans did not know what they were talking about.

Hsu Echoes Gruenberg’s Bank-On Praises

Following Chairman Gruenberg’s remarks earlier today, Acting Comptroller Hsu similarly praised Bank On’s impact on financial inclusion while highlighting racial and income gaps.

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22 05, 2023

DAILY052223

Eliza Allen2023-05-22T16:53:15-04:00May 22nd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC Set To Tackle LLPAs, GSE Policy

As noted, HFSC tomorrow will grill FHFA Director Thompson. Republicans will surely emphasize their opposition to recent LLPAs laid out at a subcommittee hearing last week; Democrats will continue to defend them.

Americans Struggle With Inflation, Savings; Bank Use Stable

Although the Fed’s latest economic well-being study has grim macro results with significant political consequences, it also finds that 94 percent of Americans in 2022 had banking relationships, an unchanged rate from 2021 although gaps remain by age, race, ethnicity, and disability.

Kashkari Disputes Need For Broad Reg Rewrite If Big-Bank Capital Goes Way Up

Renewing his campaign to hike large-bank capital ratios, FRB-Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari today said that higher capital requirements would have prevented recent failures and that additional, over-complex rules are poor substitutes for them.

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22 05, 2023

M052223

Eliza Allen2023-05-22T11:47:38-04:00May 22nd, 2023|6- Client Memo|

How to Ensure That Independent Study of Regulatory Mistakes Leads to Near-Term, Meaningful Redress and Reform

Last week, a moderate Senate Democrat was joined by a Republican in yet another letter demanding an independent investigation of regulatory actions related to recent bank failures. But, as the absence of specifics in any of these letters makes clear, it’s a lot easier to call for independent inquiry than to lay out how to conduct one that might make a meaningful difference. Precedent is not encouraging – for example, Congress created a Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission after 2008, but it was an unqualified waste of time and money. Still, we urgently need an independent assessment of what went so wrong combined with another providing near-term, actionable reforms. Having served on one post-crisis national commission that did a bit of good, I recommend separating the forensic inquiry from the one focused on the future, guarding against conflicts without eliminating expertise, and assessing only a few clear questions suitable for practical answers that can be readily accomplished under current law.

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22 05, 2023

Karen Petrou: How to Ensure That Independent Study of Regulatory Mistakes Leads to Near-Term, Meaningful Redress and Reform

Eliza Allen2023-05-22T11:47:33-04:00May 22nd, 2023|The Vault|

Last week, a moderate Senate Democrat was joined by a Republican in yet another letter demanding an independent investigation of regulatory actions related to recent bank failures. But, as the absence of specifics in any of these letters makes clear, it’s a lot easier to call for independent inquiry than to lay out how to conduct one that might make a meaningful difference. Precedent is not encouraging – for example, Congress created a Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission after 2008, but it was an unqualified waste of time and money. Still, we urgently need an independent assessment of what went so wrong combined with another providing near-term, actionable reforms. Having served on one post-crisis national commission that did a bit of good, I recommend separating the forensic inquiry from the one focused on the future, guarding against conflicts without eliminating expertise, and assessing only a few clear questions suitable for practical answers that can be readily accomplished under current law.

The first decision point determines all the rest: whether the independent analysis is to be forensic – who dropped which heavy ball on whose toes – or focused on the future – what we learned and what to do about it. Many of the proposals for an independent commission, including the Congressional letter noted above, want their commission to do both, but none could do so well and asking for this is thus asking for trouble.

A good forensic analysis will reduce the moral hazard enjoyed by federal supervisors long exempt …

19 05, 2023

Al052223

Eliza Allen2023-05-19T17:03:18-04:00May 19th, 2023|3- This Week|

Well, That Was Interesting!

As we anticipated, a series of hearings last week clarified what the banking agencies plan, what Congress thinks about it, and what’s soon to come. Based on the reports cited below, we draft the following conclusions from the hearings, testimony, and reaction thereto:

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19 05, 2023

DAILY051923

Eliza Allen2023-05-19T17:03:07-04:00May 19th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Strengthens Stand Against New Rules, Possible Supervisory Overkill

In case anyone doubted her meaning last week, FRB Gov. Bowman today repeated her strong opposition to the regulatory rewrites spelled out in what at first seemed the Fed’s but is now apparently only Vice Chairman Barr’s report (see Client Report REFORM221). Ms. Bowman also reiterates her call for an independent study, continued tailoring, and improved supervision.

Bills To Reduce Regulatory Independence Advance

As anticipated at his last hearing, HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) has now formally introduced three regulatory transparency bills. We will shortly provide clients with in-depth analyses of these bills, which we expect quickly to proceed to mark-up on largely party-line votes.

Warren Pounces On Reports Of Treasury-Bond Assessment Proposal

Sen. Warren (D-MA) yesterday sent a strongly-worded letter to FDIC Chairman Gruenberg demanding that the FDIC reject reported big bank plans to replenish the DIF with at-par Treasury bonds rather than the proposed special assessment (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE120).

BIS’s Carstens Dismisses Crypto, Calls For Tighter Non-bank Controls

In a wide-ranging speech today, BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens sharply criticized cryptocurrencies and called for greater regulation of the nonbank sector to avert a systemic financial crisis.

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