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2 09, 2025

Karen Petrou: How to Redesign the Federal Reserve Banks

2025-09-02T09:19:51-04:00September 2nd, 2025|The Vault|

“U.S. President Donald Trump’s radical shift in economic approach has already begun to change norms, behaviors, and institutions globally. Like a major earthquake, it has given rise to new features in the landscape and rendered many existing economic structures unusable,” or so says Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute.  After last week, it looks as if the Federal Reserve as it came to be known over recent decades is also on the scrap heap.  It may not be “unusable,” but the uses to which it will be put are to serve Mr. Trump’s political interests, not necessarily those also of the long-term economy’s resilience, equality, or stability.  The Fed deserves this due to its geriatric monetary-policy model and persistent contributions to economic inequality.  I’m not so sure about the rest of us.

The transformation already under way is not just the result of the President’s unprecedented effort to dismiss a member of the Federal Reserve Board and, if the courts rule in his favor, anyone else he doesn’t like.  Another profound change could come next March, when the Board must ratify the appointments of Federal Reserve Bank presidents.  With a majority of members of the Board on his side, Mr. Trump could block reappointment of all twelve Reserve Bank presidents in March of next year.

The Federal Reserve Act places a rolling list of five Reserve Bank presidents on the FOMC in an effort to balance what congress feared in 1913 would be undue Wall Street influence on monetary …

2 06, 2025

Karen Petrou: A New Trade War: Interest on Reserves

2025-06-02T09:16:29-04:00June 2nd, 2025|The Vault|

Clients will recall that, during his first term, Donald Trump nominated Judy Shelton, a frequent monetary-policy commentator, to the Federal Reserve Board.  However, her nomination sparked outrage among Congressional Democrats and many pundits that doomed confirmation.  Ms. Shelton nonetheless remains a trusted adviser to many with the President’s ear, making renomination and, this time, confirmation a strong possibility should Ms. Shelton still want a seat on the Board of Governors.  We thus took notice when she last week posted an attack on the payment of interest by the Fed on balances held by foreign branches and agencies.  She drew in part on another post adding foreign central banks to the complaint.  This might seem a remote or even improbable concern, but so does much else in CEA head Stephen Miran’s proposal positing a “user tax” that’s now in the House reconciliation bill attacking foreign investors.  Ms. Shelton’s complaint should thus be taken very seriously, especially given all the other demands to curtail interest on reserve balances (IORB).

Ms. Shelton finds that foreign branches and agencies get 42 percent of interest payments from the Fed, or about $78 billion based on total interest payments to banks of $186 billion in 2024.  Rates now on IORB stand at about 4.4 percent – one of the very best deals on offer for super-safe, overnight funds.  Another post calculates interest payments to foreign central banks at around $16.5 billion a year.  In short, it’s a lot of money which the posts rightly say …

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