#NBFI – Page 3 – Federal Financial Analytics

18 12, 2023

FSOC29

Eliza Allen2023-12-18T11:36:07-05:00December 18th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: FSOC Worries A Lot, Watches, Waits

This year’s FSOC report trods much old ground with two exceptions. The first pertains to a new focus on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and new, generative technologies. That said, the report does little beyond highlight this risk and include it among all the others federal agencies are told to monitor. Private credit now also alarms FSOC, with insurance company investment in this sector of particular systemic concern in concert with the sectors’ CRE and junk-bond exposures, offshore reinsurance, and PE ownership. As detailed in this report, banks are found to be resilient and have ample capital even as the report supports consideration of pending regulatory revisions. Banking agencies are also asked to monitor uninsured-deposit levels and assess run-risk in light of social media and other accelerants. In sharp contrast to more alarmist statements in the past and extensive Treasury reports (see Client Report CRYPTO32), this year’s report downplays cryptoasset risk because federal regulators are said to have taken steps to contain it. The report also reiterates FSOC’s continuing focus on cyber and climate risk, with the closed session preceding the meeting considering a framework being developed by the OCC to measure and monitor financial risks and bank exposures. Agencies are also encouraged to pursue comparable, “decision-useful” climate disclosures. The LIBOR transition is considered a success and no longer poses a systemic risk.

FSOC29.pdf…

15 12, 2023

DAILY121523

Eliza Allen2023-12-15T17:31:25-05:00December 15th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Crypto Measures Await Next Session

As anticipated, HFSC Chair McHenry (R-NC) was able to fend off concerted efforts by Sens. Brown (D-OH) and Warren (D-MA) to add the Warren-Marshall crypto bill to the National Defense Authorization Act.

FSOC to Target Hedge Funds, Nonbank Mortgage Companies

The readout from Treasury on yesterday’s FSOC meeting provides insight into the Council’s executive session suggesting significant near-term systemic action regarding hedge funds.

FSB Plans Broad Rewrite of Public Backstops, GSIFI Resolvability, Operational Readiness

The FSB’s 2023 Resolution Report today advises banks and public sector authorities to be prepared to access public sector funding in resolution, with the Board planning to review whether existing public sector backstops are adequate to meet potential failure scenarios.

Brown Renews Bipartisan Quest to Constrain Nonbank Banks

Advancing the big-tech concerns he most recently voiced before GSIB CEOs (see Client Report GSIB23), Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) has introduced S. 3538, bipartisan legislation to impose bank regulation on non-bank parent companies of insured depository institutions.

DOJ Targets Fraudulent Microtransactions

Cracking down on unauthorized bank account charges, the DOJ today announced multiple actions against “sham” companies alleged to have used misrepresentations or unauthorized charges to steal money from consumers’ financial accounts.

CRS Warns Credit Card Act Could Result In Risky Retailer Payment Networks

The CRS this week issued a report analyzing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Competition Act, S.1838 (see FSM Report INTERCHANGE10), projecting that fee caps will have a greater impact on transaction fees than competition, with …

8 12, 2023

Al121123

Eliza Allen2023-12-08T16:55:05-05:00December 8th, 2023|3- This Week|

Another Book Report?

At a recent hearing (see Client Report CONSUMER54), CFPB Director Chopra wasn’t shy in his critique of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. He called it a “book report club,” a moniker Karen Petrou last week suggested was not wholly untrue when it comes to emerging risks such as private credit. FSOC’s meeting this Thursday is likely to show the Council at its bookwormy best given that the agenda consists largely of ritual release of yet another FSOC report. We’ve dutifully catalogued these year-in, year-out as hundreds of FSOC blessed pages spew forth about what the Council did, how many facts its staff gathered about whom in the past year, and what it thinks might go wrong where in concert with little indication of what the Council might then do to prevent the worst from happening.

Al121123.pdf…

7 12, 2023

DAILY120723

Eliza Allen2023-12-07T16:42:01-05:00December 7th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS: CCP Collateral Holdings Pose Systemic Risk

A new BIS study looks at the risk that the transformation of OTC markets to centrally-cleared ones has in turn transformed markets based in part on know-your-counterparty into those dependent principally on collateral backing margin positions – an inherently more fragile market structure.

White House Presses FHLB Affordable-Housing Action

In remarks today, National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard not only highlighted the Biden Administration’s actions to address housing affordability, but also mentioned plans for new financing programs.

Ambitious CFPB Regulatory Plans Come Into View

The CFPB’s fall 2023 regulatory agenda provides status updates for several significant rulemaking items.

Basel to Set IRR, Window-Dressing, Crypto Standards

The Basel Committee’s year-end meeting advanced plans to address interest-rate risk (IRR) with a concrete agreement to issue a new consultation later this month updating current global IRR standards (see FSM Report IRR7).

BIS Points to MMF Risk When Rates Rise

Another new BIS paper concludes that the record size of MMFs poses significant threat to dollar-funding market stability.

OCC Warns Banks of AI Risk, Possible Supervisory Action

Reflecting growing Congressional, regulatory, and industry concerns over AI, today’s OCC semiannual risk assessment for federal banks states that national banks should be mindful of AI risks as these fall under current supervisory procedures.

Senate GOP Goes for Gruenberg’s Jugular

Despite efforts by the FDIC to reassure critics about its independent investigation, Senate Banking Republicans today fired off a ferocious letter demanding that FDIC Chair Gruenberg immediately resign …

14 11, 2023

DAILY111423

Eliza Allen2023-11-14T16:51:55-05:00November 14th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Comment Deadline Set for Debit-Card Interchange Fee Cap

The Federal Register today includes the Federal Reserve’s proposed sharp reduction in the cap for debit-card interchange fees. As previously noted (see FSM Report INTERCHANGE12), the reduction is premised on the Fed’s finding of lowered debit-card costs, but its methodology is largely unchanged and thus may not reflect current and prospective costs such as those associated with pending deposit-insurance, capital, liquidity, CRA, and open-banking standards.

FSB Hones in on Insurance Company Risk, Resolvability

At its plenary meeting over the last two days, the FSB reviewed its longstanding priorities in areas such as NBFIs, climate risk, and cryptoassets. The most notable change in priorities comes with renewed focus on insurance-company systemic risk due to challenging resolution.

Daily111423.pdf…

14 11, 2023

REFORM229

Eliza Allen2023-11-14T15:57:18-05:00November 14th, 2023|5- Client Report|

Capital Proposal Gets Bipartisan Bashing in Senate Banking

Today’s Senate Banking hearing with top bank regulators showcased broad bipartisan concern over the interagency capital proposal (see FSM Report CAPITAL230). Although Chairman Brown (D-OH), Sen. Warren (D-MA), and Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) staunchly defended the proposal on countercyclicality grounds, other senators on both sides of the aisle sounded the alarm over its impact on credit availability, small-business lending, and shadow-bank migration. FRB Vice Chair Barr repeatedly defended his agency’s analysis while emphasizing openness to comment, also highlighting that the proposal relates primarily to non-credit activity and would apply to only 37 banks. Some Republicans also raised concerns over other recent rulemakings, with Sen. Britt (R-AL) asking Vice Chair Barr if the agencies would consider a comment deadline extension for the LTD proposal (see FSM Report TLAC9). Although Mr. Barr stated that the rule is far simpler than the capital proposal, he also said the agencies would consider a similar extension. FDIC Chairman Gruenberg drew bipartisan ire over reports of FDIC widespread harassment, with Republicans seizing the occasion to criticize Mr. Gruenberg’s leadership. Grilled by Sen. Tillis (R-NC) about reports of a Fed leak of confidential supervisory information, Mr. Barr only said that he is deeply concerned. Separately, Chairman Brown emphasized unfinished work on bank executive accountability and urged Congress to pass the RECOUP Act (see FSM Report COMPENSATION37), which passed the Committee nearly unanimously in July.

REFORM229.pdf…

6 11, 2023

DAILY110623

Eliza Allen2023-11-06T16:52:37-05:00November 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Finds Bank Vulnerabilities Worrisome, But Manageable

Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff today released their latest assessment of the U.S. banking system’s vulnerability, updating its methodology now to include unrealized losses – clearly a lesson the FRB-NY analysts learned the hard way earlier this year. Although some measures of systemic risk hovers around 2008 levels, the FRB-NY capital-stress model remains at historically low levels compared to 2008 stress. However, incorporating unrealized losses “the 2023 scenario” finds banks at “somewhat elevated” levels compared to historical norms.

Cook Points to Emerging Systemic Worries

FRB Gov. Lisa Cook today said that the U.S. financial system is considerably more robust than it was in the mid-2000s, basing her analysis on the Fed’s most recent financial-stability assessment (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC95). Much in her talk echoes the Fed’s report, with Gov. Cook noting she is particularly focused on NBFI leverage and, going beyond the Fed’s current thinking, also the systemic risk AI may pose.

Daily110623.pdf…

23 10, 2023

GSE-102323

Eliza Allen2023-10-23T16:39:05-04:00October 23rd, 2023|4- GSE Activity Report|

Spotting SPVs

As noted in our report earlier today, the Federal Reserve’s latest financial-stability report expresses deep misgivings about complex securitizations. This flies directly in the face of its recent decision to liberalize the capital treatment for credit-linked notes involving bankruptcy-remote SPVs, yet more evidence that the U.S. has a central bank of many silos that interact infrequently, if at all.

GSE-102323.pdf…

11 10, 2023

DAILY101123

Eliza Allen2023-10-11T16:47:36-04:00October 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Targets U.S. Leverage Ratio, NBFIs

In remarks during the Morocco IMF/Bank meeting today, FRB Gov. Bowman contrasted U.S. bank resilience with the IMF’s findings yesterday on potential vulnerabilities as rates rise and macroeconomic conditions soften.

FSB Reiterates Stability Concerns

The FSB’s latest work plan reiterates all it most recently said to the G20.

CFPB Barrels Down on “Basic” Banking Fees

In conjunction with a new White-House junk-fee initiative, the CFPB today issued “guidance” – i.e., essentially a final rule – banning large banks and credit unions from collecting “unreasonable” fees for what the Bureau considers reasonable and “basic” account information.

SEC Throws Wrench into TLAC Standards

As we noted yesterday, the FSB’s assessment of the global resolution framework’s effectiveness found significant glitches it urges national regulators quickly to address via standards such as those now pending in the U.S. to bring smaller banking organizations into the resolution-planning regime (see FSM Report LIVINGWILL23).

OFR Study: Short-Selling Does Not Harm Financial Stability

OFR today released a model-based study that finds no evidence that short-selling adversely affects financial stability.

Daily101123.pdf…

5 10, 2023

DAILY100523

Eliza Allen2023-10-05T16:36:40-04:00October 5th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Kanter, Khan Mount Stout Defense of Draft Merger Guidelines

FTC Chair Khan and DOJ Assistant AG Kanter today defended the agencies’ draft merger guidelines (see FSM Report MERGER12) on grounds that they are faithful to congressional intent, reflect core legal principles, are more accessible and easier to apply, and better reflect the modern competitive landscape.

Basel Plans NBFI Ops-Risk Supervisory Standards, Continuing Review of Bank Supervision, New Disclosures

The Basel Committee today released its long-awaited report on 2023 vulnerabilities, deciding based on it to prioritize new supervisory approaches and additional analytical tools.

Bipartisan Bill Provides Transaction Account Deposit Insurance

Following Chairman Gruenberg’s remarks yesterday highlighting targeted deposit insurance reform, Sens. Manchin (D-WV), Braun (R-SD), and Hickenlooper (D-CO) yesterday introduced legislation to reinstate the Transaction Account Guarantee (TAG) program, expanding deposit insurance to non-interest bearing transaction accounts up to $10 million.

FDIC Proposes Public-Good Policy for IDI Corporate Governance

The FDIC today announced the Board’s 3-2 approval of an NPR establishing guidelines on corporate governance and risk management for FDIC-supervised IDIs with over $10 billion in assets.

Daily100523.pdf…