#ONRRP – Federal Financial Analytics

14 06, 2023

DAILY061423

Eliza Allen2023-06-14T17:01:12-04:00June 14th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OCC Lays Out Revised Risk Warnings, Admonitions

The OCC today released its semiannual risk assessment, with much of its context based on data as of September 2022 and thus of limited value forecasting near-term threats. The OCC is careful to advise that the banking systems and institutions with federal charters have been the focus of special OCC attention since the mid-March failures.

McHenry Heightens GOP Opposition to FSOC Systemic Standards

Perhaps because he was unable yesterday to quiz Secretary Yellen (see Client Report REFORM227), HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) today sent Ms. Yellen a letter taking sharp issue with proposed FSOC nonbank-SIFI designation standards (see FSM Report SIFI35). Arguing that FSOC’s longstanding precedent is not to designate nonbanks although this was done after Dodd-Frank (before Trump-era de-designations), Mr. McHenry states that the new approach focuses only on size and thus ignores the extent to which activities pose risk.

Powell Says No to ONRRP Redesign

At his press conference today, Chairman Powell denied that the ONRRP has any adverse impact on deposit inflows but said it and reserve levels will gradually drop as Treasury rebuilds its cash reserves. Further, the Fed is not open now to reducing RRP rates.

Daily061423.pdf…

6 06, 2023

DAILY060623

Eliza Allen2023-06-06T16:49:29-04:00June 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC Tackles China, CBDC

The committee memo for the HFSC National Security Subcommittee hearing tomorrow makes it clear that China is the main focus of dollar-sovereignty considerations and CBDC will play a central role in this debate.

CFPB Wants Chatbots To Stop Talking

The CFPB today released an “issue spotlight” looking at how AI in general and chatbots in particular may adversely affect retail-finance consumers, concluding that chatbots may be useful for simple inquiries, but effectiveness wanes as complexity rises.

Third-Party Guidance Gets Still More Stringent

After repeatedly saying that third-party risk management is a top priority, the banking agencies today finalized a 2021 proposal (see FSM Report VENDOR9) tightening current requirements.

GOP Questions ONRRP, Treasury RWAs

Although HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) today highlighted the legislation on which today’s hearing was to focus, much of the discussion over Treasury-management policy revisited last week’s debt-ceiling battles.

Daily060623.pdf…

18 05, 2023

DAILY051823

Eliza Allen2023-05-18T16:51:22-04:00May 18th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY: SLR, Other Bank Stress Led to ONRRP Growth

A new post from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York summarizes a recent staff report analyzing the ONRRP’s explosive growth. As we have noted before, the study confirms that the combination of a revised SLR and strong deposit in flows in 2021 severely stressed bank balance-sheet capacity, leading large institutions to push deposits to sponsored MMFs. Indeed, bank-sponsored MMFs had larger inflows than independent MMFs at this time and banks with tighter capital ratios moved disproportionately more funds to their sponsored MMFs.

Reserve Banks Reconsider Liquidity-Backstop Standards, Set-Up

FRB-Dallas President Logan today reinforced findings in recent bank failures about the importance of advance planning for accessing FRB liquidity, urging banks to have legal documentation and collateral arrangements well in advance of possible stress. Presaging standards we expect shortly from the banking agencies, she also urged regular operational dry runs to ensure ready access to funding sources such as Home Loan Banks and Fed liquidity windows, noting that this would reduce discount-window stigma.

Daily051823.pdf…

25 04, 2023

DAILY042523

Eliza Allen2023-04-25T17:12:43-04:00April 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Stablecoin 2.0 Is Controversial 3.0

Ahead of Thursday’s stablecoin hearing, HFSC Republicans late yesterday released a second discussion draft of legislation that received a most equivocal response at last week’s subcommittee hearing (see Client Report CRYPTO42).

Treasury Finds Profitability to Blame for De-Risking

Treasury today released its 2023 De-Risking Report, finding that profitability principally explains why financial institutions choose to de-risk.

OFR: No Single Factor To Blame For 2019 Repo Spike

A new OFR paper on the September 2019 repo rate spike concludes that while a confluence of factors – large Treasury issuances, corporate tax deadlines, and lower levels of reserves – caused the crisis, none of them individually would have been disruptive enough to trigger the spike, although limited transparency and market segmentation exacerbated it.

Federal Agencies Launch New Anti-AI Enforcement Effort

The FTC, the Civil Rights Division of the DoJ, CFPB, and EEOC today released a joint statement pledging to enforce all relevant consumer protection, anti-discrimination, and fair competition laws not only on AI, but indeed also on all “automated systems” that the agencies believe to be within their jurisdictions.

HFSC Digital Assets Hearing Set For Jurisdictional Debate

Ahead of Thursday’s hearing on the latest stablecoin discussing draft, HFSC’s staff memo today reiterates GOP opposition to the SEC’s jurisdictional arguments.

ONRRP Revised

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today revised the terms of access to the overnight reverse-repo program, adding financial stability and bank safety-and-soundness to monetary-policy implementation as ONRRP criteria for eligible counterparties …

3 04, 2023

DAILY040323

Eliza Allen2023-04-03T17:05:54-04:00April 3rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS: Banning Capital Distributions Proved Good for Banks, Borrowers

If macroeconomic or market conditions worsen, it seems likely that anxious regulators will look to preserve bank capital and turn to the ban on capital distributions briefly in place at the height of the Covid crisis. A new BIS study of the impact these restrictions had on the EU at the time is thus a timely guide to regulatory thinking under new leadership at the White House, Fed, OCC, and FDIC.

CFPB Loads Its UDAAP Bazooka

The CFPB today released what to our initial review appears an explosive new policy statement even though the agency asserts that it sets no new policy.

BIS Study Finds Retail CBDCs May Counter Financial Shocks

Supporting its overall goal of two-tier CBDC, the BIS released a model-based working paper today finding that the introduction of a retail CBDC that is perfectly substitutable with bank deposits in an open, large economy (i.e., the U.S.) could lower real interest rates and be an effective tool for countering financial shocks.

Why MMFs Beat Bank Deposits

A new FRB-NY post uses recent evidence to confirm an earlier study that MMFs are more responsive than bank deposits to monetary-policy tightening. Indeed, the data are striking, with MMF rates since March of 22 matching fed funds moves by 97 percent versus an only eight percent match for three-month CDs.

Daily040323.pdf…

20 01, 2023

DAILY012023

Eliza Allen2023-01-20T16:43:26-05:00January 20th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Waller Throws Fuel on IOR-Recapture Fire

The American Banker today reports that FRB Gov. Christopher Waller answered a question by saying that the Fed does not need the $2 trillion or so housed in the ONRRP to conduct monetary policy. Mr. Waller also said the Fed does not need the level it now holds of central-bank deposits from banks, noting that QT should continue with very significant reductions even though the precise amount of reserves needed to ensure market liquidity is unknown.

Daily012023.pdf…

13 01, 2023

DAILY011323

Eliza Allen2023-01-13T16:39:53-05:00January 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Another GSE Comes Under a Regulatory-Capital Rewrite

A little-noticed GSE – Farmer Mac – has long been criticized by agricultural lenders for reducing competition in this critical sector based in part on unduly-advantageous capital rules. Now, the Farm Credit Administration – the GSE’s regulator – has issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking to consider whether and how to align Farmer Mac’s capital more closely to the Basel banking standards.

Fed Records Expected Loss Congress Will Assess

The Fed today released its preliminary 2022 income and expense data, detailing $18.8 billion in deferred assets following its suspension of Treasury remittances. It also reports an increase in total interest expense from $5.7 billion in 2021 to $96.6 billion in 2022, $55.1 billion of which was due to depository institutions and $41.5 billion related to the ONRPP.

Daily011323.pdf…

19 12, 2022

DAILY121922

Eliza Allen2022-12-19T16:49:50-05:00December 19th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

JEC Report Calls for Crypto Regulation

The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) released a report late Friday arguing that recent contraction in the digital-asset market demonstrates the need for more regulation. While it does not outline specific policy changes, the report asserts that new regulations must strive to keep digital assets separate from the broader economy to prevent contagion, as well as ensure that investors are properly informed on digital asset’s individual risks.

KC Fed Discounts SLR Relief as Solution to ONRRP Growth

A Friday brief from the Kansas City Fed concludes that limited money-market investment opportunities, policy uncertainty, and ONRRP changes such as easier eligibility better explain the sharp increase in ONRRP than bank-capital shortages as deposits flowed to MMFs. As a result, the paper concludes that reinstating SLR exemptions for central-bank deposits and Treasury obligations would not materially affect bank use of the ONRRP and thus facilitate Fed balance-sheet reduction.

McHenry Tees Up Fintech Action for New Congress

Incoming Chairman McHenry (R-NC) today reintroduced legislation designed to facilitate financial innovation, kicking off his chairmanship’s focus on fintech, crypto, and other financial technology related matters. The bill does not address priority policy questions in this contentious arena, instead creating a pathway for financial innovators to request information on whether they are eligible for exemptions from relevant regulations from the banking agencies and CFPB.

Daily121922.pdf…

17 10, 2022

Karen Petrou: Fed Financial Losses and Big-Bank Political risk

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-17T15:39:27-04:00October 17th, 2022|The Vault|

Congress will do nothing about anything until the midterm election seals each Member’s fate. Thus, I expect nothing to come from Congress in 2022 responding to the Fed’s sudden turn for the financial worst. However, when Congress again comes to thinking about the Fed, it will not go unnoticed despite all the acrimony about monetary-policy miscues that taxpayers are in some ways now far more clearly subsidizing payments to banks, MMFs, and other financial companies holding deposits with the central bank or using its standing market windows. The last time Congress thought about interest rates on reserves (IRR), more than a few Members wanted it back. Given that these payments are now at what seems direct taxpayer cost, they’ll have a lot of new friends in the next Congress unless someone quickly shows why these interest payments are an artifact of Fed confusion, not big-bank malfeasance.

Yes, I know – the $2.9 billion loss the Fed reported in terms of Treasury remittances for the first week of October isn’t a direct taxpayer subsidy any more than the hundreds of billions the Fed has sent to the Treasury since 2008 are funds directly taken from taxpayers. The ups and downs of Fed remittances are the result of balance-sheet operations comprised of liabilities owed to financial companies and earnings on assets in the Fed’s portfolio. Neither is direct spending nor revenue raising. This is, though, a technicality for Members of Congress who have become used to having the Fed – and …

17 10, 2022

m101722

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-17T15:38:55-04:00October 17th, 2022|6- Client Memo|

Fed Financial Losses and Big-Bank Political risk

Congress will do nothing about anything until the midterm election seals each Member’s fate. Thus, I expect nothing to come from Congress in 2022 responding to the Fed’s sudden turn for the financial worst. However, when Congress again comes to thinking about the Fed, it will not go unnoticed despite all the acrimony about monetary-policy miscues that taxpayers are in some ways now far more clearly subsidizing payments to banks, MMFs, and other financial companies holding deposits with the central bank or using its standing market windows. The last time Congress thought about interest rates on reserves (IRR), more than a few Members wanted it back. Given that these payments are now at what seems direct taxpayer cost, they’ll have a lot of new friends in the next Congress unless someone quickly shows why these interest payments are an artifact of Fed confusion, not big-bank malfeasance.

m101722.pdf

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