Arezou Rafikian – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

12 01, 2022

FedFin Forecast: Prudential Regulatory Framework Set for Structural Change Largely Built on Current Standards

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-14T16:21:13+00:00January 12th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, FedFin begins our 2022 forecasts with this in-depth report on bank regulation. In general, we conclude that the context of decisions in 2022 and beyond will shift from a focus on tailoring efficiencies and burden relief to one emphasizing risk mitigation, fairness, equity, and — for the very biggest banks — a smaller systemic footprint. This report looks at the impact of pending personnel decisions as well as the outlook for climate-risk, new capital rules, FBO standards, and other key issues….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

12 01, 2022

REFORM211

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-12T16:12:09+00:00January 12th, 2022|5- Client Report|

FedFin Forecast: Prudential Regulatory Framework Set for Structural Change Largely Built on Current Standards

As promised, FedFin begins our 2022 forecasts with this in-depth report on bank regulation. In general, we conclude that the context of decisions in 2022 and beyond will shift from a focus on tailoring efficiencies and burden relief to one emphasizing risk mitigation, fairness, equity, and — for the very biggest banks — a smaller systemic footprint. This report looks at the impact of pending personnel decisions as well as the outlook for climate-risk, new capital rules, FBO standards, and other key issues. The only rule we think might get a near-term substantive rewrite is the stress capital buffer (see FSM Report CAPITAL225) via tougher CCAR standards and a reversal of the prior decision to end qualitative objections. The odds of a leverage rewrite are smaller, but not negligible.

REFORM211.pdf…

11 01, 2022

Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-12T22:19:17+00:00January 11th, 2022|Press Clips|

Bank of America to Cut Overdraft Fees to $10 From $35

By Orla McCaffrey and Will Feuer

Bank of America Corp. said Tuesday it would cut overdraft fees to $10 from $35 beginning in May, following other big banks that have rolled back or ditched such charges. Overdraft fees, which are charged when customers don’t have enough cash in their accounts to cover their purchases, are under scrutiny by regulators and politicians who say they unfairly exploit cash-strapped families. Under the Biden administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have pressed banks to scale them back. In a December report, the CFPB flagged Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. on their overdraft fees….“It’s an astute political risk-management strategy,” said Karen Petrou, head of Federal Financial Analytics, a regulatory advisory firm. “It does pay to get out ahead of the reaper, and it does seem certain that the CFPB will turn to regulating overdraft fees.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-america-to-reduce-overdraft-fees-to-10-11641912259?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1…

11 01, 2022

FedFin Assessment: Powell Sidesteps Many Challenges, Promises Much

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-14T16:19:14+00:00January 11th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE66), we listened closely today to gauge the extent to which Chairman Powell faces a serious challenge to reconfirmation. At least as far as Senate Banking Members are concerned, he doesn’t. Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) and other Democrats lambasted Mr. Powell over insider-trading allegations and what they called the Fed’s unresponsiveness, all still were cordial and seemed generally to blame the problem on institutional failures, not the chairman. Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) called the Fed’s diversity policy “outrageous,” but also does not seem inclined….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

11 01, 2022

FEDERALRESERVE67

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-12T14:55:11+00:00January 11th, 2022|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Powell Sidesteps Many Challenges, Promises Much

As promised yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE66), we listened closely today to gauge the extent to which Chairman Powell faces a serious challenge to reconfirmation. At least as far as Senate Banking Members are concerned, he doesn’t. Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) and other Democrats lambasted Mr. Powell over insider-trading allegations and what they called the Fed’s unresponsiveness, all still were cordial and seemed generally to blame the problem on institutional failures, not the chairman. Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) called the Fed’s diversity policy “outrageous,” but also does not seem inclined to block confirmation based solely on this issue. As anticipated, most senators focused on inflation and the economy; Mr. Powell often reflected this by affirming that the Fed will soon cease to be quite as accommodative. Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) urged Mr. Powell not to let up on economic stimulus, also complaining about big-bank consolidation, capital distribution, bank profits, and the need for more lending to “Main Street.”

FEDERALRESERVE67.pdf…

10 01, 2022

Al011022

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-10T14:23:39+00:00January 10th, 2022|3- This Week|

2022 BUILDING BLOCKS

We hope the holidays gave you a relaxing break no matter your travel and omicron worries. FedFin staff stayed busy because so did federal policy-makers. Actions in the last two weeks or so lay a solid platform for game-changing decisions in 2022 on…

Al011022.pdf…

10 01, 2022

m011022

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-10T14:22:24+00:00January 10th, 2022|6- Client Memo|

Senate Banking’s CBDC Questionnaire

It’s certain that Jay Powell’s confirmation hearing will put him through the wringer on inflation, equality, “insider” trading, and the rules he’ll foster under the new vice chair for supervision. This is enough to try even the most patient of souls, but there’s another issue senators should be sure to raise: what’s taking the Fed so, so long to start its CBDC deliberations, let alone conclude them? After initially dismissing the need for a U.S. central bank digital currency, Chairman Powell announced last May that the Board would seek public comment sometime that summer. At about the same time, Gov. Brainard spoke about a possible CBDC construct and the Boston Fed announced a technical build-out project along with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Hub also has CBDC ambitions. Although Fed officials were quick to point out that none of these nor any of the subsequent high-profile papers commits the Fed to anything, work seemed well under way to join the dozens of other central banks convinced that CBDC is essential in the quick-digitization payment future clearly emerging outside the reach of central bankers.

m011022.pdf…

10 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Senate Banking’s CBDC Questionnaire

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-10T14:21:01+00:00January 10th, 2022|The Vault|

It’s certain that Jay Powell’s confirmation hearing will put him through the wringer on inflation, equality, “insider” trading, and the rules he’ll foster under the new vice chair for supervision. This is enough to try even the most patient of souls, but there’s another issue senators should be sure to raise: what’s taking the Fed so, so long to start its CBDC deliberations, let alone conclude them?

After initially dismissing the need for a U.S. central bank digital currency, Chairman Powell announced last May that the Board would seek public comment sometime that summer. At about the same time, Gov. Brainard spoke about a possible CBDC construct and the Boston Fed announced a technical build-out project along with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Hub also has CBDC ambitions. Although Fed officials were quick to point out that none of these nor any of the subsequent high-profile papers commits the Fed to anything, work seemed well under way to join the dozens of other central banks convinced that CBDC is essential in the quick-digitization payment future clearly emerging outside the reach of central bankers.

What’s happened since the summer CBDC storm? Not much.

Mr. Powell and other Fed officials at one point promised that the CBDC paper would come in September, but autumn came and went. The Fed’s certainly been busy tidying up after its “transitory” inflation goof and ongoing macroeconomic challenges, but it neglects CBDC at its and our peril.

First, whether …

10 01, 2022

FEDERALRESERVE66

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-10T14:11:18+00:00January 10th, 2022|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Powell, Brainard Confirmations Confront Challenges

Many of you have asked us to forecast key policy implications ahead of two high-powered hearings this week considering President Biden’s top Fed nominees. We will as usual provide clients with in-depth analyses after the Senate Banking Committee ponders Chairman Powell’s nomination for a second term on Tuesday and Gov. Brainard’s to become vice chair on Thursday. Now, we explain why we think Mr. Powell’s confirmation chances – while still good – are not the slam-dunk many media sources suggest and why Gov. Brainard also faces a challenging outlook. We will not consider the odds that an appointment in the next few days of Sarah Bloom Raskin as vice chair for supervision will alter the political calculus except to say that the last time the White House tried this Sen. Warren (D-MA) didn’t budge. We don’t expect she will this time. This report does not consider other pending nominations to join the Board of Governors because none of them are likely to affect policy debate except when it comes to demands for greater Fed diversity.

https://fedfin.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FEDERALRESERVE66.pdf

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10 01, 2022

Daily011022

Arezou Rafikian2022-01-12T22:20:58+00:00January 10th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

FDIC Exempts Some Custody Funding from Brokered Deposits
As promised in its brokered-deposit rule (see FSM Report DEPOSIT INSURANCE111), the FDIC today published a notice expanding deposit-making exceptions to funds received from third-party custodians without discretion over the IDIs into which funds are placed.

FSB Turns to Insurance Resolutions
The FSB today expanded on longstanding efforts to ensure successful insurance-company resolution, issuing papers on resolution funding, and resolution planning.

Warren Stands Firm Against Powell
As anticipated in our in-depth report earlier today (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE22), Sen. Warren (D-MA) is not letting upon Chairman Powell. Today, she sent a tough letter reiterating demands for an array of information on Fed-officer trading, reiterating also that she wants an SEC investigation.

Daily011022.pdf…

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About Arezou Rafikian