Arezou

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So far Arezou Rafikian has created 1947 blog entries.
17 03, 2024

Barron’s, Sunday, March 17, 2024

2024-03-18T10:00:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Press Clips|

The U.S. Economy Is Booming, But Only for a Few

“Our economy is literally the envy of the world,” President Biden declared in his recent State of the Union address. There’s some truth to this exceptionalism talk. However, the U.S. economy seems to be doing better than other advanced economies thanks also to data badly distorted by U.S. economic inequality. Here, we’re also exceptional, just in the bad way of being less equal than all other advanced democracies. Big-picture numbers show the U.S. economy beating much of the rest of the world. Gross domestic product grew 2.5% in 2023, compared to 1.9% in Japan, 0.5% in the U.K., and negative 0.3%—a mild recession—in Germany. Unemployment numbers are similar. What these apparently favorable comparisons miss, however, is how spending and investing by the few Americans who own so much of American wealth and receive so much of its income drive an economy that leaves almost everyone else farther and farther behind. Unequal economies are also unduly vulnerable to recessions and financial crises. The seeming strength of the U.S. economy is a brittle platform for growth or, as the White House hopes, political support….

https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-inequality-bidenomics-ef5ef7ed

15 03, 2024

Al031824

2024-03-15T17:23:21-04:00March 15th, 2024|3- This Week|

Answered Prayers?

Banks have been asking regulators for years – decades? – to update 1995 merger guidance.  So the banking agencies are beginning to do, but not exactly as banks would have liked to see it done.  Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) thinks the OCC’s proposed merger policy is too soft, our analysis (see FSM Report MERGER14) and that of many others finds it a formidable barrier to all but the simplest, smallest transactions.  Now comes the FDIC.  As the schedule below makes clear, it plans on Thursday to issue a proposal based on its 2021 RFI (see FSM Report MERGER9).  We doubt any bank-merger policy influenced as strongly by CFPB Director Chopra will be a bank merger policy banks will like any better than the OCC’s, although some compromises may have to be made if Republican members of the FDIC board are willing to contemplate at least some of what Mr. Chopra, surely seconded by Chair Gruenberg, wants done.

Al031824.pdf

15 03, 2024

Daily031524

2024-03-15T17:22:26-04:00March 15th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Effective Date for Late-Fee Ban Set for May

Publication in the Federal Register today sets the effective date for the CFPB credit-card late fee regulation (see FSM Report CREDITCARD37) as May 14, 2024.  The rule sets a controversial $8 safe harbor for late fees by larger issuers and mandates a stringent fee-calculation methodology for smaller issuers.  The Bureau did, however, forbear setting limits on other card fees such as those associated with over-limit purchases.  Litigation contesting the rule is already in the works along with a GOP resolution to overturn it.

Vance Goes for Nuclear Financial-Market Option vs. China

Sen. Vance (R-OH) has introduced S. 3945, a bill to ban China and entities it governs from U.S. capital, bond, and financial markets if Treasury determines that it has engaged in sovereign-debt restructuring in violation of global law and financial-market practice.  The goal here is clearly to force China to cease the practice of throwing emerging-market debtors into default on debt it has extended while securing repayment or other beneficial treatment for itself.

Daily031524.pdf

15 03, 2024

GSE-031524

2024-03-15T17:20:04-04:00March 15th, 2024|4- GSE Activity Report|

Fees on the Firing Line

If it wasn’t clear before that the CFPB’s blog post targeting “junk” mortgage fees meant business, NEC Director Brainard’s comments endorsing it brought this on home.  No matter the controversy and litigation, the Bureau has toppled credit-card late fees at least for now.  It clearly plans a like-kind assault on mortgage costs, so we here turn to an analysis of which are on the firing line and how deadly the Bureau’s shots are likely to prove.

GSE-031524.pdf

13 03, 2024

American Banker, Wednesday, March 13, 2024

2024-03-14T09:44:17-04:00March 13th, 2024|Press Clips|

Banks knock FDIC over growing tab for last year’s failures

By Polo Rocha

One year after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed in the span of three days, big banks are miffed about their growing tab from last March’s wild weekend. The gripes stem from decisions made between March 10-12, 2023, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. stopped deposit runs by taking over the two banks and declaring a systemic risk exception to ensure that the vast quantities of uninsured deposits at those failed banks were covered….Karen Petrou, the co-founder of the consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics, said the $4 billion difference is a “very significant mistake” that calls into question the FDIC’s credibility in gauging the costliness of bank resolutions. “When an agency gets something this wrong, it’s not unreasonable for those picking up the tab to ask,” Petrou said. The agency has been gradually getting rid of certain assets that First Citizens Bank and New York Community Bancorp did not acquire when they bought many of the remnants of the two failed banks. First Citizens bought much of SVB, and New York Community acquired parts of Signature…

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/banks-knock-fdic-over-growing-tab-for-last-years-failures

 …

12 03, 2024

FedFin on: FHLBs Forced Into an Unflattering Limelight

2024-03-12T16:55:37-04:00March 12th, 2024|The Vault|

The President’s FY25 budget picks up FHFA’s recommendations, calling for statutory change to double the System’s affordable-housing commitment.  That won’t happen anytime soon, but a new CBO report strengthens FHFA’s hand in several areas well within its jurisdiction.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here

6 03, 2024

Marketplace, Wednesday, March 6, 2024

2024-03-06T15:15:40-05:00March 6th, 2024|Press Clips|

How November’s election could shape antitrust policy

It’s the morning after Super Tuesday primaries, and for people making money decisions large and small, the election results are not a paradigm shift. We’ll discuss why with Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics.

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report/this-elections-big-trust-issue-maybe-not-the-one-youre-thinking-of/

5 03, 2024

FedFin on: Consumer-Financial Product Marketing Practices

2024-03-05T16:34:22-05:00March 5th, 2024|The Vault|

The CFPB has issued a circular essentially banning digital and perhaps all other consumer-finance comparison-shopping and lead-generation tools for credit cards and other products not covered by prior orders.  These activities could continue, but only as long as the comparison or lead is completely objective as the Bureau may come to judge it under complex and sometimes conflicting standards.  The circular follows similar CFPB actions outside the Administrative Procedure Act even though the agency clearly intends to enforce its new approach both directly and in concert with other state and federal agencies….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

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