Arezou

About Arezou Rafikian

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Arezou Rafikian has created 2347 blog entries.
5 01, 2026

Karen Petrou: Why the Fed’s New-Found Neglect of Banks is Not Benign

2026-01-05T08:56:44-05:00January 5th, 2026|The Vault|

Clients will today receive our in-depth analysis of the Fed’s proposal to radically realign access to the nation’s payment system. As we make clear, the Fed is eyeing a change many banks fear will put them at an acute competitive disadvantage.  Ordinarily, this would slow the central bank.  Now, not a bit, a sea-change from longstanding Fed thinking.  If it lasts, banking will never be the same.

Is that all to the good? In the request for input on new payment accounts, the Fed says the following about what it has taken considered formulating these “skinny” payment accounts:

[T]he Board has considered the risks identified in the Guidelines (i.e., risks to the Reserve Banks, to the overall payment system, to financial stability, to the overall economy as a result of illicit activities, and to the implementation of monetary policy. In addition, the Board considered features that could limit Payment Accounts’ impact on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

Did the Board just forget about banks?  I don’t think so.  Arguably, only captive regulators work to protect their charges from market forces.  Market efficiency is enhanced if uncompetitive banks seek to clog the rails for low-cost, high-innovation services.

Or so it would be if this were a fair fight, which it isn’t.  Banks are of course under an extensive – some might say crippling – set of prudential standards designed in part to ensure clearing-and-settlement capability.  They are also key to financial intermediation.  As we noted last week, a new FRB-NY study …

19 12, 2025

Barron’s, Friday, December 19, 2025

2025-12-19T11:31:55-05:00December 19th, 2025|Press Clips|

Stop Obsessing About Risks and Let The Banks Compete

By Karen Petrou

Americans have been worrying about the risks of mixing banking and commerce since Aaron Burr shot Alexander Hamilton. Burr’s Manhattan Company at the time promised to build safe drinking-water pipes across Manhattan funded by deposits entrusted to its care. This early example of a bank that took commercial business risks didn’t produce a hit musical, but it did leave Americans with a grudge against mixing deposit-taking and business investments. Burr and his co-conspirators absconded with the money, and it took another 40 years for New Yorkers to gain wide access to potable water. The residual anger at Burr left many firmly committed to never allow another bank to undertake commercial activities. Worries still abound that deposit-holding institutions will take unhealthy risks if left unchecked. But the idea that banks ought not to conduct commerce is at best only a partial explanation of crises gone by. It’s also an even worse predictor of any to come….

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stop-obsessing-about-risks-and-let-the-banks-compete-027daec0?st=eMuSgk

 …

12 12, 2025

Bloomberg, Friday, December 12, 2025

2025-12-15T13:40:17-05:00December 12th, 2025|Press Clips|

Five Crypto Firms Get Coveted US Bank-Charter Nod

By Emily Mason and Katanga Johnson

Five cryptocurrency firms received preliminary approval to perform certain banking functions from a US regulator on Friday, marking the latest step in the White House‘s embrace of what was once viewed as a risky, fringe industry. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency offered conditional approval for national trust bank charters that Circle Internet Group Inc., Ripple, BitGo Inc., Fidelity’s digital assets arm and Paxos had requested, according to a press release….In addition to granting charters, US bank regulators including the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are looking for other ways to welcome avant-garde firms into the financial system. For instance, the Fed is weighing whether to grant financial-technology firms access to payments systems like FedWire through so-called “skinny” master accounts. These developments do not just signal legitimacy for newcomers, but also a competitive risk for established lenders, said Karen Shaw Petrou, a longtime policy analyst and managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics. “The OCC is making it more than clear that the new light-touch regulatory construct is not all upside for traditional banks,” she said. “The OCC and FDIC, and perhaps even the Fed, will look far more kindly on nontraditional companies outside many rules that are allowed to offer services that compete directly with what I think must now be called legacy banks.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/occ-greenlights-five-charters-for-firms-including-circle-ripple

5 12, 2025

IntraFi, Banking with Interest Podcast, Friday, December 5, 2025

2025-12-08T10:55:48-05:00December 5th, 2025|Press Clips|

Inside the 2025 Bank Reg U-Turn

Karen Petrou is again featured on IntraFi’s podcast, Banking with Interest, hosted by Rob Blackwell.  It’s a wide, wide-ranging discussion of issues from deposit-insurance reform to sharp reductions in the Fed’s portfolio, whether stablecoins really have a use case, and what’s next from the federal banking agencies.

Listen here.…

17 11, 2025

Karen Petrou: The Fed’s Secret Safety Net for Cayman Island Hedge Funds

2025-11-17T11:28:00-05:00November 17th, 2025|The Vault|

In a speech last week, Secretary Bessent described Treasury obligations as “not only the bedrock of the global financial system, but also the American dream.”  So they are, but they are also a huge source of profit to basis-trading hedge funds happily evading U.S. taxes in the Cayman Islands.  Should the Fed grow its already-gargantuan portfolio at still more taxpayer risk and expense just to keep the good times rolling?  Are there no better ways to ensure Treasury-market stability without a Fed portfolio so large that, as Secretary Bessent has also said, it makes America ever less equal?  There are indeed better ways and the Fed should deploy them, not just comfort the morally hazardous with still another backstop.

An October Federal Reserve study finds that a longstanding source of FRB systemic-risk worries —basis trading hedge funds — is dramatically under-counted in conventional Treasury-market data sources.  Cayman Island-domiciled hedge funds are now, the Fed data show, the largest foreign holders of Treasuries with $1.85 trillion as of the end of 2024 – a trillion-dollar run-up in just two years.  Their holdings now eclipse those of each of China, Japan, and the U.K. who are otherwise the largest foreign holders.  Only the Federal Reserve holds more Treasury obligations than all these hedge funds in the tax-free sun.

At the same time, short-term rates continue to show significant signs of stress  surely worsened by the fact that leveraged basis-traders borrow repos without posting lending to net out most of the risk.    …

14 10, 2025

Karen Petrou: Supervisors Must Match Better Words With Faster, Tougher Deeds

2025-10-21T12:44:02-04:00October 14th, 2025|The Vault|

In remarks last week, Secretary Bessent drew attention to a new OCC and FDIC proposal that, among other things, defines what will be considered “unsafe” and “unsound” when it comes to bank examination and enforcement.  As Mr. Bessent said, “While simply defining a term might seem like a small thing, …, a clear focus on material financial risk will put an end to this nonsense.”  By which he meant the egregious supervisory lapses that led to four costly bank failures in 2023.  He’s right, but the banking agencies must also match these new words with far faster, tougher, and transparent supervisory deeds.

There’s no question that supervisory policy has long forced banks to think at least as much about papering decisions as making them.  This is a particular problem for community banks without teams of compliance specialists, adding all too much cost to the technology and product innovations essential to banks that aren’t just safe, but also sound competitors that serve their communities.  Much in the post-2008 rulebook needs a rewrite and almost everything proposed after the 2023 crash is badly designed.

But ripping out too many pages in righteous rage could spark yet another of the downward spirals in lax rules and irresponsible banking that occur every other decade or so.  I thus worry about a few aspects of this new proposal.

For example, the proposal bars supervisory sanction unless or until a material loss is foreseeable or has actually occurred.  Violations of banking or consumer law cannot …

29 09, 2025

Karen Petrou: Why Stablecoins Must Also Reliably Settle and Clear 

2025-10-21T12:46:27-04:00September 29th, 2025|The Vault|

As we noted last week, a new study finds that stablecoins and other crypto payments use declined from 2022 to 2024 by about a third, now including less than two percent of U.S. households.  Further, these are disproportionately unbanked, with the only bit of growth in payment-stablecoin use coming from households with poor or very poor credit scores. Payee choice was the most important driver of decisions to use a payment stablecoin.  These jarring facts brings the trillions-of-trillions of dollars stablecoin dreamers back to earth with a hard thump.  They might still prevail, but only if banks don’t quickly counter with potent products and nonbanks also get the rules they want and the payees they need to redefine their problematic stablecoin value proposition.

One critical battle is already being waged.  Banks are fighting hard to prevent indirect payment of incentives that advantage stablecoin holders and thus undermine transaction-account alternatives.  This question is among the most important on which Treasury now seeks comment before it quickly starts writing rules.  The Senate Banking Committee might also revise the GENIUS Act at cost of bankers.

Despite the plethora of questions in Treasury’s recent request, another important issue is omitted: who may own a nonbank stablecoin issuer.  The Act as is contains a prohibition on ownership by publicly-traded nonfinancial companies, but Treasury can waive this ban if it and other regulators reach several findings that won’t be too hard to find if Treasury wants them unearthed. Pending changes in law and rule could also …

11 09, 2025

The International Economy, September 2025 Issue

2025-09-13T10:59:19-04:00September 11th, 2025|Press Clips|

The Fed’s New “Gain-of-Function” Monetary Policy

By Scott Bessent

Overuse of nonstandard policies, mission creep, and institutional bloat are threatening the central bank’s monetary independence….In her book Engine of Inequality: The Fed and the Future of Wealth in America (2021), progressive financial policy expert Karen Petrou documents how the Fed’s pursuit of a “wealth effect” to stimulate the economy backfired. “Unprecedented inequality,” wrote Petrou, “is clear proof that the wealth effect is all too effective for the wealthy, but an accelerant to economic hardship for everyone else.” Economists’ focus on the supposed benefits of the wealth effect is particularly odd given that the Fed’s asset purchases act more powerfully on the discount rate at which assets are valued than the stream of cash flows that underpins the asset’s price. Asset owners are less likely to bring forward consumption as a result of changes in the discount rate than income growth, and to the extent that they do increase consumption, the effects may reverse once discount rates are normalized. In Petrou’s view, the exacerbation of income and wealth inequality is a function of the distribution of assets in the United States—which the Fed should take as a given. Only the very wealthiest individuals own financial assets that are most directly impacted by the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases. Moving down the spectrum, a substantial portion of the middle of the income distribution has exposure to home equity, but this asset is less sensitive to the Fed’s financial market machinations. The …

5 09, 2025

Wall Street Journal, Friday, September 5, 2025

2025-09-05T16:00:51-04:00September 5th, 2025|Press Clips|

The Fed’s ‘Gain of Function’ Monetary Policy

By Scott Bessent

As we saw during the Covid pandemic, lab-created experiments can wreak havoc when they escape their confines. Once released, they can’t easily be put back. The “extraordinary” monetary-policy tools unleashed after the 2008 financial crisis have similarly transformed the Federal Reserve’s policy regime, with unpredictable consequences. The Fed’s new operating model is effectively a gain-of-function monetary policy experiment. Overuse of nonstandard policies, mission creep and institutional bloat threaten the central bank’s independence. The Fed must change course. Its standard tool kit has become too complex to manage, with uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Simple and measurable tools, aimed at a narrow mandate, are the clearest way to deliver better outcomes and safeguard central-bank independence over time….By failing to deliver on its inflation mandate, the Fed allowed class and generational disparities to widen. Its pursuit of a wealth effect to stimulate growth backfired. “Unprecedented inequality is clear proof that the wealth effect is all too effective for the wealthy, but an accelerant to economic hardship for everyone else,” financial analyst Karen Petrou wrote in her book “Engine of Inequality” (2021). The Fed’s growing footprint has profound implications for independence. By extending its remit into areas traditionally reserved for fiscal authorities, the Fed has blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-feds-gain-of-function-monetary-policy-ac0dc38a?mod=commentary_article_pos1

Go to Top