What do bank earnings tell us about the economy?

By Mitchell Hartman

It’s the second week of April, which means spring is in the air and daffodils, cherry trees and lilacs are blooming. Here at Marketplace, it also means earnings season is starting. Corporate profit-and-loss reports for the January-to-March quarter kicked off in earnest Wednesday with Delta Air Lines, which did quite well. Revenue rose 6% and earnings per share nearly doubled from a year ago. ..“Banks really are bellwethers of the economy,” said Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics. “Biggest issues for the larger banks: interest rates, which we — at least, I — know are going to be higher for longer. And that helps to improve bank earnings.” That’s because the banks make more money on the interest they charge borrowers. But Petrou said there’s also a downside to interest rates staying high: credit losses. As consumers keep spending, their credit card balances are rising….“We know that the low-wage earners are having difficulty. What we’re looking for now: Has it crept up the wage scale, middle-income wage earners with late payments or delinquencies?” she said.

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/04/11/what-do-bank-earnings-tell-us-about-the-economy/…

When is strong hiring too strong?

Buy the People: Why everyone loves to hate the Fed

By Kyle Campbell

Click the link below to listen to Kyle Campbell’s podcast on economic  populism.  It’s a terrific survey of Fed history with authoritative insiders including Federal Financial Analytics‘ managing partner Karen Petrou, and then – my bit – an assessment of why recent monetary  policy has made so many Americans so angry and how that affects the political outlook , especially this November.

https://www.americanbanker.com/podcast/buy-the-people-why-everyone-loves-to-hate-the-fed…

By MICHAEL STRATFORD and ZACHARY WARMBRODT

First look: A bank merger rethink — MM has a preview of a provocative bank M&A talk that Federal Financial Analytics managing director Karen Petrou will give at a Kansas City Fed workshop today.

As banking agencies signal tougher scrutiny of proposed mergers, Petrou makes the case that regulators are failing to use tools they already have to address conflicts of interest, concentration and unfair competition ahead of M&A reviews.

“How much of this is necessary in merger review and how much could be accomplished by better prudential regulation along with vigilant supervision and meaningful enforcement?” she says in remarks prepared for her talk, which you can read here.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money…

Why Is Trump’s Truth Social Worth Billions? Experts Have Theories

By Eric Cortellessa

On the cusp of a financial crisis, Donald Trump got help from an unlikely source: His struggling social media platform. Investors approved a plan on Friday to take Truth Social public, increasing his net worth by billions as he’s drowning in legal expenses and owes New York state half a billion dollars in a civil fraud case. The company will start trading on the ​​Nasdaq exchange on Tuesday. But the financial statements of Trump’s firm show scant evidence of a booming business worthy of the $4.7 to $5.6 billion market capitalization reported on Monday. Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social, lost money last year, according to regulatory filings….It’s not the first time that markets have embraced social media companies at levels that appear to exceed their value, according to Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics. Other examples, she cites, include Uber and WeWork.“These kinds of valuations that seem insane are surprisingly common,” says Petrou, “They’re less common than they used to be when interest rates were low. All sorts of firms have been financed significantly, or capitalized through IPO, well above their estimated value. Some of them had no revenues for years. But the markets were chasing yield.”In other words: they were taking high risks they thought could lead to high rewards. That could also be the case with the lagging Truth Social, where shareholders are betting that a …

https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-inequality-bidenomics-ef5ef7ed…

Banks knock FDIC over growing tab for last year’s failures

By Polo Rocha

One year after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed in the span of three days, big banks are miffed about their growing tab from last March’s wild weekend. The gripes stem from decisions made between March 10-12, 2023, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. stopped deposit runs by taking over the two banks and declaring a systemic risk exception to ensure that the vast quantities of uninsured deposits at those failed banks were covered….Karen Petrou, the co-founder of the consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics, said the $4 billion difference is a “very significant mistake” that calls into question the FDIC’s credibility in gauging the costliness of bank resolutions. “When an agency gets something this wrong, it’s not unreasonable for those picking up the tab to ask,” Petrou said. The agency has been gradually getting rid of certain assets that First Citizens Bank and New York Community Bancorp did not acquire when they bought many of the remnants of the two failed banks. First Citizens bought much of SVB, and New York Community acquired parts of Signature…

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/banks-knock-fdic-over-growing-tab-for-last-years-failures

 …

How November’s election could shape antitrust policy

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report/this-elections-big-trust-issue-maybe-not-the-one-youre-thinking-of/…