Press releases and other resources for media.
Karen Petrou on President Biden’s Economic Agenda and Public Opinion Polls
Karen Petrou talked about President Biden’s economic agenda and how voters are responding.
White House uses the term ‘Bidenomics’ to help sell the president’s economic agenda
By Asma Khalid
President Biden has low approval ratings on the economy even though voters like some key policies. The White House wants to narrow this gap with its “Bidenomics” slogan, but there are risks….But some experts say this strategy also means the president is owning the economy – all of it. He’s literally putting his name on it. Karen Petrou is a financial analyst who’s worried that this strategy could actually help former President Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner. Karen Petrou: I don’t mind the term Bidenomics. What I mind is that the president is putting his name on economic success, which most Americans aren’t experiencing. And I fear that that will be very damaging to his electoral prospects.
Why the messaging around “Bidenomics” might not be working
About a month ago, President Biden gave a big speech on the country’s economy and rolled out a new term to try to put a positive spin on its performance: Bidenomics. The Biden administration is touting a strong labor market and wage growth. It wants to ride that momentum right into the 2024 presidential election. But not everyone is feeling so cheery about the economy. In fact, two-thirds of voters actually disapprove of the economy under Biden. Where’s the disconnect? Karen Petrou, co-founder and managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, has been writing about this. She spoke with “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio, and the following is an edited transcript of their conversation….
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/07/24/why-the-messaging-around-bidenomics-might-not-be-working/…
End court’s homeless meddling, the ‘Bidenomics’ delusion and other commentary
Editorial Board
The US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit isn’t “the only reason why cities across the West Coast have been overrun with plague-infected homeless camps,” but it’s “a big part of the problem,” grumbles the Washington Examiner editorial board. In Martin v. Boise, the 9th Circuit used the Eighth Amendment to prohibit cities “from enforcing their anti-camping statutes unless they could prove that the city had enough shelter beds available to house every homeless person” there. “Denying cities the ability to clear out public spaces and disincentivize public camping” makes homelessness harder to deal with. A year ago, the “Supreme Court wisely took abortion regulation out of federal courts and returned it to democratically elected leaders”; it’s time it “did the same thing for homelessness policy.”…While President Biden touts “his achievements for the US middle class” based on new job numbers, “American wealth inequality is at one of its highest levels since the Fed began calculating it in 1989,” observes Karen Petrou at The Hill. The bottom 50% of US households “would need to earn $5,000 more just to buy the same things it could the year before the pandemic.” Indeed, “two out of three voters disapprove of his economic performance and no wonder — roughly two-thirds of American households are living paycheck to paycheck and/or skipping purchases they can no longer afford.” The prez hopes to “persuade voters that happy times are here again,” yet that’s …
Bidenomics is an insult to millions of voters living paycheck to paycheck
By Karen Petrou
Bidenomics is gaining no voter traction. To understand why, step back from all the technical economic indicators and look at economic life for key voters — the majority is falling farther and farther behind, faster and faster than ever. On June 28, President Biden stood in front of Bidenomics banners to tout his achievements for the U.S. middle class. And, as he has done with any glimmer of good economic data, he followed that up on July 7 with what was effectively a self fist bump, touting new jobs numbers….
Inflation eases but Fed can’t conquer housing prices
As the Biden administration cheers signs that price rises across the economy have started to cool, homeownership remains out of reach for many first-time buyers.
By Kathy O’Donnel and Sam Sutton
Consumer price inflation is easing, sparking hope that the U.S. may be turning the corner on the worst price spikes in decades. Yet the single biggest component of the Consumer Price Index — housing costs — continues to be the main driver of inflation, rising twice as fast as everything else…“For younger voters, who are seeking to move out of rentals or to find an affordable first home close to work, that can be close to impossible minus a down payment from a wealthier parent,” said Karen Petrou, co-founder and managing partner of Washington-based consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics. “This is one of the really classic aspects of American economic inequality,” she said. “People are squeezed.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/12/housin-inflation-fed-00105757
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Why banks should beware of ‘Bidenomics’ (quotes Karen)
By Claire Williams
The White House in the last few weeks has deployed everyone from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to First Lady Jill Biden to sell a very specific narrative — that the economy is doing well, and that President Joe Biden is responsible for it. Voters are skeptical — and that might be a problem for banks….That leads to a sizable disconnect between how many likely voters feel about the economy, and how the Biden administration is presenting it, said Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics. That’s true not just for Republicans, but for some Democratic voters as well. “I think it is a very dangerous political tactic to try to persuade voters that something they’re experiencing isn’t happening,” she said. “The rhetoric has to change, and he has to recognize the reality of many American households, particularly most likely voters, many of whom are doing worst of all compared to 2016 to 2019.”
https://www.americanbanker.com/news/why-banks-should-beware-of-bidenomics
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Regulators are aligned on capital reforms. Congress is a different story
By Kyle Campbell
July 12, 2023Federal regulators have lined up behind stronger capital requirements for large banks, but questions remain about how much political support they can generate in Washington — and how much they will need for their efforts to last. Unlike the last time bank capital standards were increased after the subprime mortgage crisis, this latest push lacks clear champions in Congress…. Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, said the full impact of the changes will have to be spelled out in the regulators’ notice of proposed rulemaking. In particular, Petrou said the focus will be on differences between the current advanced approaches model used for determining risk-based capital requirements and the new standard approach that will be implemented to align with the so-called Basel III endgame. While capital levels overall will go up as a result of this change, she said, the treatment of specific exposures under the new rules will determine which firms bear the brunt of increase. For banks that have been subjected to the advanced regulations, a switch to a new standard could actually bring a modicum of relief. Because of this, Petrou said she puts little stock in Barr’s assertion that the changes will result in an average increase in capital of 2% across the impacted banks, or that banks could raise the additional equity needed in just two years.”That’s just an average. It’ll have a big impact …
Regulators weigh impact of new capital rules on banks and nonbanks alike
By Kyle Campbell
With new, proposed capital rules set to debut this summer, some in and around the banking sector worry that stringent requirements could inadvertently make the financial system less safe. The key issue for certain policymakers and analysts is whether heightened regulatory standards will push more lending activity away from banks and toward less-regulated entities, such as insurance companies, debt funds and other alternative capital sources….But some see this two-track approach to regulation as shortsighted. It’s just a game of pass the potato,” Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, said. “That’s an analytically unfortunate approach to thinking about capital requirements.” Petrou said one of the goals of regulatory reform should be to reduce unintended consequences. While anticipating those consequences can be difficult, she said risk moving outside the banking system is a well-established reaction to higher regulatory requirements. She pointed to the residential mortgage market, which has been dominated by nonbanks since the reforms implemented after the subprime lending crisis of 2008. Once a strong proponent of Barr’s holistic capital review as means for addressing overlaps and oversights in the current regulatory framework, Petrou said she is now skeptical the exercise can achieve that goal. Given the “piecemeal” changes that have been discussed since this spring’s run of bank failures — including amending the treatment of accumulated other comprehensive income and the introduction of so-called “reverse stress testing” — Petrou worries the …
New bank capital requirements may move faster than the speed of regulation
By Kyle Campbell
As federal regulators prepare to propose new capital standards this summer, a debate has emerged over their timing and potential impact on the real economy.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Martin Gruenberg both confirmed last week that a proposed rule for the final implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework is imminent and signaled that it will include greater capital requirements for the country’s largest banks….Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, said the process of investors responding to regulatory changes and banks responding to their investors has become a well documented cycle, especially under the post-Dodd-Frank regulatory regime. “Investors are priced on a forward-looking basis, and they immediately run the numbers and price the new capital rules or new stress scenarios into their cost of equity,” Petrou said. “That immediately changes the bank’s strategic outlook. We know that because we see it year in, year out.”