#BTFP – Federal Financial Analytics

27 03, 2024

DAILY032724

Eliza Allen2024-03-27T16:47:24-04:00March 27th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-Cleveland Study: Banks Beat Capital-Rule Reaper

One of the major complaints banks have raised with the pending end-game capital rules is that the proposed transition period for final implementation does not soften the blow as the agencies argue.

Treasury Points to AI Fraud, Cyber Risk; Presses for New Rules, Best Practices

Adhering to the President’s AI executive order (see Client Report AI3), Treasury today assessed AI risk in the financial sector, concluding that further work is required to address AI-related fraud and cybersecurity risks.

FRB-NY: Mid-Size Regionals Show Deposit/Asset Recovery

A new report from Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff finds that the 2023 failures had little lasting impact on bank deposit costs and funding practices save for banks between the $50 to $250 billion level the study dubs “super-regionals.”

KC Fed: Core-System Providers May Have Undue Market Power

A new report from Kansas City Fed staff finds that three core-system providers dominate this critical sector, making it difficult for depository institutions and especially smaller banks to obtain better service levels.

Daily032724.pdf…

25 03, 2024

M032524

Eliza Allen2024-03-25T11:45:52-04:00March 25th, 2024|6- Client Memo|

How the FDIC Fails and Why It Matters So Much

Last January, we sent a forecast of likely regulatory action and what I called a “philosophical reflection” on the contradiction between the sum total of rules premised on unstoppable taxpayer rescues and U.S. policy that no bank be too big to fail. Much in our forecast is now coming into public view due to Chair Powell and Vice Chair Barr; more on that to come, but these rules like the proposals are still premised on big-bank blow-outs. I thus turn here from the philosophical to the pragmatic when it comes to bank resolution, picking up on a stunning admission in the FDIC’s proposed merger policy to ponder what’s really next for U.S. banks regardless of what any of the agencies say will result from all the new rules.

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25 03, 2024

Karen Petrou: How the FDIC Fails and Why It Matters So Much

Eliza Allen2024-03-25T11:45:45-04:00March 25th, 2024|The Vault|

Last January, we sent a forecast of likely regulatory action and what I called a “philosophical reflection” on the contradiction between the sum total of rules premised on unstoppable taxpayer rescues and U.S. policy that no bank be too big to fail. Much in our forecast is now coming into public view due to Chair Powell and Vice Chair Barr; more on that to come, but these rules like the proposals are still premised on big-bank blow-outs. I thus turn here from the philosophical to the pragmatic when it comes to bank resolution, picking up on a stunning admission in the FDIC’s proposed merger policy to ponder what’s really next for U.S. banks regardless of what any of the agencies say will result from all the new rules.

Let me quote at some length from the FDIC’s proposed merger policy:

“In particular, the failure of a large IDI could present greater challenges to the FDIC’s resolution and receivership functions, and could present a broader financial stability threat. For various reasons, including their size, sources of funding, and other organizational complexities, the resolution of large IDIs can present significant risk to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), as well as material operational risk for the FDIC. In addition, as a practical matter, the size of an IDI may limit the resolution options available to the FDIC in the event of failure.”

In short, the FDIC wants to block most big-bank mergers because it can’t ensure orderly resolution of a large insured depository …

11 03, 2024

DAILY031124

Eliza Allen2024-03-11T17:15:23-04:00March 11th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Hagerty Demands Signature-Asset Sale Answers ASAP

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) yesterday sent a letter to Chair Gruenberg questioning the FDIC’s adherence to requirements in its auction process during the sale of Signature Bank’s loan portfolio, accusing the FDIC of making political choices inconsistent with its least-cost mandate.

Scott Again Calls for Gruenberg Resignation

Adding to GOP pressure on FDIC Chair Gruenberg, Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) yesterday sent a letter reiterating his demand that Mr. Gruenberg step down.

BTFP Demise if FHLB Opportunity

As anticipated, the BTFP window closed today.

FDIC’s Hill Wants New Blockchain, Liquidity Standards

FDIC Vice Chair Hill today said there are “significant downsides” to the agency’s current approach to blockchain, describing its message and that of the inter-agency policy (see Client Report CRYPTO32) as “don’t bother trying.”

Warren Tries to Divide Powell from Other Regulators to Conquer Capital Regs

Following her grilling of Chair Powell last week regarding his decision to intervene in setting the new capital rules, Sen. Warren (D-MA) yesterday sent a letter to Vice Chair Barr, Chair Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller Hsu asking them if pressure from big banks has “weakened your resolve.”

GAO Wants FinCEN to Move Better, Faster

Reinforcing longstanding bank complaints about the current AML regime, GAO today published a report finding that FinCEN needs to improve transparency surrounding its progress implementing the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020 (see FSM Report AML132).

Biden Presses for Statutory Change Boosting FHLB Affordable-Housing Contributions

President Biden’s FY25 …

1 03, 2024

DAILY030124

Eliza Allen2024-03-01T17:10:56-05:00March 1st, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Fed Emergency Powers Back on Senate Docket

Just before the Senate passed the stopgap bill to avert a shutdown, Sen. Paul (R-KY) forced a vote on an amendment to prevent the Fed from buying debt from states and municipalities.

DOJ Goes After “Gate-Keepers”

In remarks late yesterday, Assistant AG Jonathan Kanter highlighted the impact of new DOJ/FTC guidelines (see FSM Report MERGER13) and enforcement efforts with regard to “gate-keepers” – i.e., “monopoly chokepoints” so powerful that they control entry and pricing in a key sector in which they also often compete.

Fed Seems a Bit Warier of Banking-System Stress

The Fed monetary-policy report submitted today ahead of Chair Powell’s testimony next week includes a financial-stability analysis largely derived from the FRB’s most recent financial-stability report (see Client Report SYSTEMIC97) and the update provided earlier this week by a key FRB-NY official.

White House Steps in to Comfort NYCB Worries

At close of business, NYCB shares had sunk to levels not seen since 1997 following the release of still more bad news on Thursday.

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15 02, 2024

LIQUIDITY34

Shane Smith2024-02-15T15:07:26-05:00February 15th, 2024|5- Client Report|

Congress Contemplates Fed Emergency-Liquidity Power, Discount-Window Use

Today’s HFSC Financial Institutions hearing on emergency liquidity featured much discussion of reform, but few indications of any action Congress will take to advance it apart from support for pending agency efforts to enhance discount-window readiness. However, GOP criticism of the Bank Term Funding Program combined with witness support for its end makes clear the Fed’s political challenge should it reverse course and retain the facility in light of NYCB’s challenges and the potential for broader regional-bank stress. Republicans including Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) were skeptical of the Home Loan Banks’ role as lenders to banks in duress; Democrats countered with strong support for the System as a boon to community banks. Rep. Barr also contemplates some form of legislation to prevent the Fed from crafting new emergency-liquidity programs without prior Congressional approval, with Rep. Luetkemeyer (R-MO) noting his longstanding plan to give the FDIC authority to invoke a transaction-account guarantee regardless of amount without the need for prior Congressional approval.

LIQUIDITY34.pdf…

25 01, 2024

DAILY012524

Shane Smith2024-01-25T16:50:12-05:00January 25th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Fed Surprisingly Slams the BTFP’s Doors

At an unusual time and on a day that does not comport with the usual timelines for Fed action, the Board last night unanimously announced it will shutter the Bank Term Funding Program as scheduled on March 11.

Basel Head Backs U.S. Regulators

In response to waves of recent letters pushing back on the Basel III capital rules, Basel Committee Secretary General Esho defended Basel III, arguing that there is little evidence that Basel III implementation will have a detrimental effect on banking and economic growth

FTC Tackles AI Inter-Connections, Concentration

Following remarks by FTC Chair Khan making clear that there is no “AI exception” to lawful behavior, the FTC announced that it has issued orders to Alphabet, Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI requiring them to provide their recent investment and partnership information involving gen-AI companies and major CSPs.

CFTC Kicks Off Financial-Agency AI Assessment

Just as it did years ago with climate risk (see Client Report GREEN4), the CFTC took the lead among U.S. financial regulators with respect to AI.

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9 01, 2024

DAILY010924

Eliza Allen2024-01-09T16:48:15-05:00January 9th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Now Tackles Supervisory Transparency

In remarks late yesterday, FRB Gov. Bowman added a new concern: supervisory transparency. She indicated that the Fed’s supervisory expectations have changed to the point at which some state agencies think the Fed goes too far, but banks have no way of anticipating possible supervisory injunctions. As a result, she argues for near-term transparency via public notice-and-comment guidance or rulemaking.

Barr Bows a Bit

Answering questions today, FRB Vice Chair Barr indicated that the BTFP may well close on March 11, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the Fed’s emergency-liquidity mandate. That said, loans will be extended until the one-year anniversary and may remain until 2025. He also outlined a significant compromise on the operational-risk section of the end-game rules (see FSM Report OPSRISK22), more closely aligning the proposal with the Basel standards as our outlook anticipated.

Daily010924.pdf…

1 11, 2023

DAILY110123

Eliza Allen2023-11-01T16:52:56-04:00November 1st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Vance, GOP Seek to Reverse New Immigration Credit Ruling

Following a joint CFPB-DOJ statement asserting that financial institutions’ “unnecessary or overbroad reliance” on immigration status in a credit decision may violate the ECOA, Sen. Vance (R-OH) along with all Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee today sent a scathing letter to CFPB Director Chopra and DOJ AG Garland urging the regulators to retract it on legal and financial stability grounds.

Congress Takes on SEC Custody Construct

Members of Congress are mobilizing against the SEC’s custody proposal (see FSM Report CUSTODY5) following yesterday’s block-buster GAO ruling against the SEC’s SAB 121 ruling, a ruling with considerable impact also in the broader custody rewrite. Republicans responded to the GAO with anticipated demands for rapid Congressional Review Act repeal.

Powell Pledges Fed Capital Consensus

In the midst of much monetary-policy discussion today, Chair Powell now said more publicly that the Fed will work towards consensus on controversial capital rules. Rep. Barr (R-KY) previously said Mr. Powell assured him that the final rule will reflect the Board of Governors as a whole, encouraging Rep. Barr and others that Vice Chair Barr will need to modulate some of the proposal’s most controversial provisions.

Daily110123.pdf…

1 08, 2023

DAILY080123

Eliza Allen2023-08-01T16:49:48-04:00August 1st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Curtain Falls on Fintech-Charter Hopeful

In a blow to the waning chartering prospects for fintech and crypto banks, the OCC today announced that Figure – a fintech platform that applied in 2020 for a strikingly-novel national bank charter (see Client Report CHARTER28) – has officially withdrawn its application. As noted, Figure’s application followed OCC revisions to federal-charter activities making any activity authorized for national banks possible via electronic, not just traditional, means (see FSM Report CHARTER27).

Discount-Window Stigma Persists

The Fed today released the results of its May 2023 Senior Financial Officer Survey, with most banks continuing to fear public disclosure of discount window advances. As noted, the banking agencies last week told banks not only to improve contingency-funding planning, but also to look more favorably on the discount window. This seems unlikely absent a change in current market perception or repeal of the disclosure requirements.

Daily080123.pdf…