#capital proposal – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

29 02, 2024

DAILY022924

Eliza Allen2024-02-29T16:41:41-05:00February 29th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

FSB Says Swiss Standards, Not Its Own, Led to CS Chaos

The FSB today released the review of Swiss GSIB regulation announced after Credit Suisse’s failure.

Basel Tackles Private Credit, GSIB Window-Dressing

The Basel Committee today again pressed nations – clearly here focusing on the U.S. – to finalize the end-game rules as quickly as possible.

FinCEN Releases New AML/CFT Hit List

FinCEN today emphasized that the new FATF report has revised countries where strategic AML and CFT measures are deficient, warning U.S. banks to take this into account – i.e., to ensure appropriate de-risking.

CFPB Targets Bank Comparison-Shopping Posts

The CFPB today loosed another attack on bank marketing practices, arguing that key facts are omitted from credit-card and financial-product descriptions obscuring back-end fees.

Bipartisan HFSC Votes to Repeal SAB 121

At today’s abbreviated markup, HFSC took up H.J. Res. 109, which would repeal the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 requiring banks to keep custody cryptoassets on balance sheet (see FSM Report CUSTODY5).

HFSC Approves Secret Service Cybercrime Bill

As HFSC’s markup continued today, the committee turned to Rep. Fitzgerald’s (R-WI) bipartisan H.R. 7156 expanding Secret Service investigative authorities over cybercrime.

FSB Head Ratchets Up Stablecoin Systemic Worries

In remarks today, FSB Chair Klaas Knot discussed market developments in cryptoassets, suggesting that renewed market interest in stablecoins by bigtechs and financial institutions could have systemic implications.

Daily022924.pdf…

20 02, 2024

DAILY022024

Eliza Allen2024-02-20T17:06:56-05:00February 20th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Waters Fails to Muster Meaningful Democratic Capital-Proposal Protest

Late Friday, HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) released another letter from Democrats protecting the pending capital proposals.

Fed Study: CBDC Impact on Dollar Dominance, Payment System Depends on Many Decisions

A new Fed staff study finds that a U.S. CBDC would have only a marginal impact on the dollar’s role as the reserve currency and within the payment system, although this conclusion depends on a raft of decisions now being made about other CBDCs and the cross-border payment system.

Sanders Targets BlackRock’s Market Power

We will shortly provide clients with an update on Congressional reaction to the C1/Discover merger earlier today, but here draw client attention to a new letter from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), sure also to be among the credit-card consolidation’s fiercest critics.

Brown Presses Powell for Enforceable Ethics Standards

Senate Banking Chair Brown today renewed his campaign against Fed conflict-of-interest policies, sending another letter to Chair Powell arguing that the Fed’s recent internal-investment and ethics standards are unenforceable.

Initial Response to C1/Discover Merger Starts M&A Debate

With Congress in recess, political response to the Capital One/Discover merger has been muted in terms of sparse comments, but fiery when it comes to Sen. Warren (D-MA).

Daily022024.pdf…

6 02, 2024

FSOC30

Shane Smith2024-02-06T15:01:20-05:00February 6th, 2024|5- Client Report|

Yellen Ducks Capital Question, Further Threatening Finalization

As anticipated, today’s HFSC hearing with Treasury Secretary and FSOC Chair Yellen showcased sharp Republican criticism of the Council’s nonbank designation authority (see FSM Report SIFI36), with Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) citing the guidance as yet another example of regulatory politicization, calling FSOC a “rogue” and “roving” regulator. Digital asset regulatory gaps were a top GOP concern, with Chairman McHenry also joined today by Reps. Hill (R-AR), Johnson (R-SD), and Thompson (R-PA) in sending a letter to Ms. Yellen requesting much greater attention to SEC and CFTC collaboration on digital asset oversight. The hearing also continued to raise doubts about the viability of the agencies’ capital proposal (see FSM Report CAPITAL230), with Ms. Yellen repeatedly refusing to endorse it and emphasizing that the rule’s final form is the purview of the banking agencies. Democratic opposition to the proposal was most starkly captured by Rep. Scott (D-GA), who said not only that it would be economically “terrible,” but that the majority of Committee members shared this opinion. Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) strongly countered this view, but Democratic support today was muted. Rep. Waters was also joined last night by Reps. Green (D-TX), Lynch (D-MA), Cleaver (D-MO), and Foster (D-IL) in sending a letter to Chairman McHenry requesting a hearing examining what they argue are racial disparities in mortgage approval rates at Navy Federal Credit Union.

FSOC30.pdf…

2 02, 2024

DAILY020224

Eliza Allen2024-02-02T16:21:33-05:00February 2nd, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Powell, Hsu Add to Pressure on SEC Crypto-Custody Standards

As we noted yesterday, Congressional Republicans are now mounting a Congressional Review Act effort to repeal the SEC’s staff accounting bulletin (see FSM Report CUSTODY5) requiring balance-sheet recognition of crypto-custody deposits at considerable cost to banking institutions.

Trump to Dump Powell

As we expected, Donald Trump today said that, if elected, he will not reappoint Jerome Powell. This decision will not present itself to the next president until Mr. Powell’s term ends in January of 2026, but we do not think either of the candidates is likely to reappoint Mr. Powell should he seek a third term.

GOP Bill Challenges Capital Proposal

Echoing long-held concerns of other HFSC Republicans, Rep. Ogles (R-TN) along with Rep. Donalds (R-FL) have introduced legislation (H.R. 7143) forcing regulators to withdraw the capital proposal (see FSM Report CAPITAL230).

Senate Presses for Anti-Hungary Sanctions

In a statement that may lead financial institutions to review their exposures, Senate Foreign Relations Chair Cardin (D-MD) called on the Biden Administration to consider sanctions against Hungary due to its government’s refusal until late yesterday to support EU efforts for Ukraine and its broadly anti-democratic program in general and with specific regard to pressuring the U.S. and its ambassador to Hungary.

HFSC Republicans Take Another Shot at FDIC

Continuing their campaign against FDIC Chair Gruenberg, HFSC Chair McHenry (R-NC) along with Subcommittee Chairs Barr (R-KY) and Hill (R-AR) sent a letter today to the FDIC questioning …

31 01, 2024

DAILY013124

Eliza Allen2024-01-31T16:57:15-05:00January 31st, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Banking Turns to AI’s Impact on Housing Finance

Today’s lightly-attended Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing on AI and Housing focused principally on AI governance issues including accountability, model explainability, transparency, and bias. Sen. Warnock (D-GA) called for action on S. 3692, legislation to prohibit use of algorithmic systems to coordinate – and it is believed thus inflate – rental prices or reduce supply. Although Subcommittee Chairwoman Smith (D-MN) lauded AI for its potential to boost the housing supply, she and other Democrats raised serious concerns that AI reinforces biases in lending decisions.

Democrats Remain Dubious About the Capital Proposal

Today’s Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on the capital rules made it still more clear that more than a few Democrats share at least some GOP concerns. Chair Barr (R-KY) reiterated points he has frequently made about the poor analytics behind the proposal; Full Committee Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) and Rep. Green (D-TX) were unequivocal in their support. Other Democrats raised concerns many had previously expressed in comment letters, with Rep. Sherman (D-CA) pointing to problems with the proposal’s impact on capital markets and its lack of credit for private mortgage insurance and Rep. Beatty (D-OH) highlighting concerns with small business credit availability.

Daily013124.pdf…

29 01, 2024

M012924

Shane Smith2024-01-29T15:16:08-05:00January 29th, 2024|6- Client Memo|

The Risks New Capital Rules Can’t Cure

Part one of my end-game assessment was last week’s memo laying out the growing odds that the agencies will be forced to issue a new proposal which hopefully makes better sense than the current one. Part two here points out how the agencies have so tightly wrapped themselves around the capital rule’s axle that they are unable to see how many even more critical challenges are going unaddressed. Risks overlooked are often risks even the toughest capital rules cannot contain because the cost of new capital rules actually contributes to the arbitrage and risk-migration accelerating the pace of systemic-risk transformation. This is a negative feedback loop if ever there were one.

m012924.pdf…

29 01, 2024

Karen Petrou: The Risks New Capital Rules Can’t Cure

Shane Smith2024-01-29T09:29:45-05:00January 29th, 2024|The Vault|

Part one of my end-game assessment was last week’s memo laying out the growing odds that the agencies will be forced to issue a new proposal which hopefully makes better sense than the current one. Part two here points out how the agencies have so tightly wrapped themselves around the capital rule’s axle that they are unable to see how many even more critical challenges are going unaddressed. Risks overlooked are often risks even the toughest capital rules cannot contain because the cost of new capital rules actually contributes to the arbitrage and risk-migration accelerating the pace of systemic-risk transformation. This is a negative feedback loop if ever there were one.

The new capital rules will be outdated by the time they are finalized because financial institutions of all persuasions will take advantage of every bit of regulatory-arbitrage opportunity within and across borders. That the banking agencies and FSOC aren’t even thinking about how this might happen makes it still more likely that they will. This is not to say that no changes to capital rules are warranted. Some changes are overdue, but capital rules crafted in a vacuum will not stand up to real-world circumstance.

The collective book reports issued by the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual systemic forecast and the FSOC’s annual reports are remarkably backward-looking. Focused more on not saying anything too frightening and bolstering ongoing initiatives, these tomes have long been and sadly still are poor auguries of risks to come perhaps all too soon.

Even …

26 01, 2024

DAILY012624

Eliza Allen2024-01-26T16:09:38-05:00January 26th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Agencies Rewrite Call Reports Ahead of Final Capital Regs

Despite growing bipartisan concern over a capital proposal likely to be significantly revised, the Fed, OCC, and FDIC today requested comment on proposed changes to call reporting requirements as well as regulatory capital and market risk capital reporting requirements to ensure that these conform with the agencies’ proposal. Many changes reflect the departure from the advanced approach, with the agencies arguing that new disclosure requirements would increase transparency and complement the supervisory review process. Certain item instructions would also be altered to reflect AOCI transition requirements, while form terminology would change to reflect the proposed expanded risk-based approach and the scope of banking organizations covered.

Daily012624.pdf…

22 01, 2024

M012224

Shane Smith2024-01-22T09:40:25-05:00January 22nd, 2024|6- Client Memo|

How the Banking Agencies Dealt Themselves Such a Weak End-Game Hand

We said from the start that finalizing the capital rules as proposed would be difficult because I have truly never seen a sweeping rule buttressed by such shoddy analytics. It’s of course true that lots of rules make little sense, but rules that cost companies as much as the capital rules are uniquely vulnerable to substantive and legal challenges. This is even more likely when, as now, the proposal’s victims know how to temper political claims with well-founded assertions of analytical flaws and unintended consequences. When regulatory credibility is effectively undermined, even those who might otherwise side with the regulators become cautious, if not actually averse to doing so. And thus, it has come to pass for the end-game rules.

m012224.pdf…

18 01, 2024

DAILY011824

Eliza Allen2024-01-18T16:58:16-05:00January 18th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Head Backs U.S. End-Game

In an FT interview today, the Basel Committee’s chair, Pablo Hernández de Cos, unsurprisingly endorsed the U.S. end-game proposal, indirectly but firmly rebutting assertions that it is at variance with global norms.

The Shape of Liquidity Rules to Come

Previewing the construct of what may soon be the anticipated inter-agency proposal addressing liquidity-risk lessons-learned, Acting Comptroller Hsu today argued that the liquidity coverage ratio’s treatment of retail depositors (see FSM Report LIQUIDITY17) does not address likely depositor herding as they run for the exit.

Rounds, Sinema Press for SIFI-Designation Rollback

Senate Banking Committee Member Rounds (R-SD) alongside Sen. Sinema (I-AZ) introduced S.3601, legislation to codify 2019 standards (see FSM report SIFI35) adding significantly more obstacles to systemic designation compared to FSOC’s new approach (see FSM report SIFI36).

Steele’s Good-Bye Presses for More Tough Standards

In his last speech in office, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Graham Steele today called for reassessment of the treatment of unrealized gains or losses not just under the capital rules, but also in the liquidity standards (where they are in fact to some degree now captured).

House Democrats Damn Capital Proposal With Faint Praise

In this report, we begin our assessment of Congressional end-game comment letters.

Senate Letters Slam Capital Proposal’s Tax-Equity Risk Weight Changes

Here, we turn to several Senate letters on the end-game proposal.

Daily011824.pdf…