#Cryptoassets

12 09, 2022

Karen Petrou: When Crypto Arrogance is Criminal Contempt

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-17T15:44:34-04:00September 12th, 2022|The Vault|

Bankers are often said to live in isolated splendor. There’s truth to this, but banker insularity is nothing compared to the astonishing effrontery of cryptoasset executives who think their self-assured brilliance puts them above not just the law, but even concern for the public good. Nothing argues more compellingly for immediate, stringent crypto regulation than the outrage with which crypto companies have greeted Treasury’s demands – request failed to work – that they cease facilitating the kind of dark-money transactions that fund Russian war crimes, North Korean nuclear-obliteration threats, and webs of human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and general evil around the world. These companies clearly cannot govern themselves and they must thus be quickly and sharply made to do so for everyone else.

What brought this issue to a head is the self-righteous fury with which crypto companies view Treasury’s efforts to make them comply with the same sanctions rules demanded of anyone dealing in any other form of money. Somehow, money in digital form is money that can do no wrong because, we are told, those who use crypto-currency – apparently unlike users of any other form of a medium of exchange — have a right to do so as they wish.

This omnipotent perspective is clearly evident in last week’s Coinbase suit against the U.S. Treasury on grounds that sanctioning a crypto “mixer”, Tornado Cash, trampled on so many First Amendment rights that press stories giving its side of the case had space only to list a few. …

22 08, 2022

FedFin on: FRB Crypto-Activity Constraints

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-04T10:52:55-05:00August 22nd, 2022|The Vault|

Reflecting the concerns voiced in a recent executive order from President Biden and a subsequent request for views from Treasury, the Federal Reserve has joined the OCC in demanding prior notice from banking organizations that wish to undertake cryptoasset activities. The OCC also warned national banks already engaged in these activities to ensure that they are safe and sound, but the Fed has gone farther. It also demands that state member banks and BHCs already engaged in this sector notify their lead supervisor and ensure that…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

12 07, 2022

FedFin on: U.S. Digital-Asset Policy

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-23T16:02:08-05:00July 12th, 2022|The Vault|

As part of its response to the President’s digital-asset executive order, the Department of the Treasury is seeking views on the broad policy questions on which it believes answers might guide the Administration’s next steps. The definition of digital assets on which comment is sought includes central-bank digital currency (CBDC) and other digital representations of value delivered via distributed ledger technology (DLT). As a result, Treasury’s inquiry is comprehensive and results could have far-reaching implications, but the nature of the questions posed are so broad as to provide little indication of how Treasury plans to frame its report to the White House and proceed thereafter.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

22 06, 2022

FedFin: Fed Comes Under Heightened Political Pressure

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-25T15:58:37-05:00June 22nd, 2022|The Vault|

As we expected, today’s Senate Banking session with Chairman Powell is a preview of broader national debate ahead of the midterm election. Democrats generally sought to emphasize their understanding of inflation’s costs without lambasting the Fed and, indirectly, the Biden Administration. Still, Sens. Ossoff (D-GA) and Warnock (D-GA) pressed Mr. Powell on the Fed’s failure to begin to tighten last summer. Republicans were strongly united in lambasting….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

14 06, 2022

FedFin On: U.S. Digital-Asset Framework

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-27T15:30:30-05:00June 14th, 2022|The Vault|

After protracted negotiations and much public attention, bipartisan senators have introduced a far-reaching bill designed to encourage digital-asset use without undue risk to consumers, investors, or the financial system. The bill decides most, if not all, of the outstanding regulatory barriers to digital-asset use in favor of digital assets and their providers. Provisions in many cases go farther than public discussion has so far noted – for example, the measure not only expands the ability of digital-asset providers to reach retail and wholesale customers, but also gives them access to FDIC resolution without the cost of paying insurance premiums or coming under many of the rules that govern insured depositories…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

18 04, 2022

Karen Petrou: Starry-Eyed Kids Stumbling in the Cryptoverse

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-02T10:55:51-05:00April 18th, 2022|The Vault|

One of the really sort-of sweet things about many who espouse the inevitability of digital assets is boundless hope for crypto domination derived from little knowledge of how the financial system actually works. Last week, a prime example surfaced on Reuters, which touted a plan by which $10 billion of bitcoins would supplant the dollar as the global reserve currency. Here’s to hoping, but the total USD money supply clocks in at close to $22 trillion, suggesting one might need more than a few billion to make even a bit of a dent. Digital currency may well reign supreme, but it won’t be much more than a speculative bet until someone figures out how to integrate it into legacy systems and market, policy, and regulatory realities.

One might say that using M3 as the measure of the dollar’s power is unfair. So, let’s use just currency in circulation. That’s a lot less, but still a formidable $2.3 trillion, a number not only humbling to entrepreneurs, but also progressive Democrats crafting a new form of digital currency via the U.S. Treasury.

Our in-depth analysis assesses this “e-cash” legislation. The idea here is to create a digital asset that is identical to physical dollars in all but physicality. This may be a worthy effort, but it won’t be easy.

Take just one issue: the bill mandates that e-cash be fully private and anonymous but also ensures effective AML enforcement. Quite simply, that can’t happen.

Still, as physical-cash transactions shrink, the absence …

29 03, 2022

FedFin: Global Securities Regulators Diss DeFi

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-27T15:46:19-04:00March 29th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, this report provides an in-depth analysis of IOSCO’s new paper on decentralized finance, one sure to advance the FSB’s efforts to bring DeFi systems under greater regulatory scrutiny due to the findings we here detail. In the U.S., President Biden’s crypto-focused executive order (see FSM Report CRYPTO26) highlights DeFi’s risk with regard to illicit finance. IOSCO’s work on this report was headed by the SEC, suggesting rapid U.S. action not only on this concern, but also on many other risks by the Commission, as well as the FSOC and other U.S. agencies…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

21 03, 2022

Karen Petrou: How to Set Course to a Digital Future

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-03T13:18:42-04:00March 21st, 2022|The Vault|

Last week, we laid out the macrofinancial implications of the Ukraine crisis – i.e., its impact on the global financial-and-regulatory order. Some of this analysis is founded on President Biden’s digital-asset executive order, which also has profound and immediate impact on critical macroprudential issues at the border of innovation and regulation to which we now turn. To forecast how digitalization will come upon us, the digital-asset order must be read in the Administration’s broader context in which high-impact political issues, such as racial equity, weigh at least as heavily as the complexities of CBDC or even the benefit of a future financial crises foregone.

Administration policy based on Democratic politics is set not only by the digital-asset order, but also by other White House directives that will define the boundaries of what Treasury and the agencies – the Fed included at least to a point – will do. To forecast digital-asset policy, one must thus also divine the outcome of two other executive orders.

First, there’s the President’s competition directive. Every critical consumer-protection question under the CFPB’s purview is now considered first and foremost in terms of competition, with the agency’s director making it manifestly clear that almost anything done by any big bank is a target for structural reform. Director Chopra doesn’t like fintech or biotech much better than most banks do, but his approach to digital assets is likely only to squelch big banks as much as he can and thus to drive cryptoassets further into …

18 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Inflation’s High Cost to Competition and Comity

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-24T15:18:29-04:00January 18th, 2022|The Vault|

It’s not news that the latest inflation data are disastrous. Even if they won’t last, as Mr. Powell again assured Congress, it sure is hard to see how the combination of pressures detailed in the inflation data lead to ta rate even close to the FOMC’s median projection for 2022 of 2.6 percent. This means that real rates will remain negative throughout 2022 and well into 2023. Indeed, given that the FOMC’s median projection for the near-term fed funds rate never gets above 2.1 percent, even the Fed has tacitly conceded that negative real rates may well be prolonged absent either divine intervention or another devilishly-deep recession. In June of last year, I predicted that U.S. inflation would not prove transitory and forecast the political impact finally understood at the highest levels of the Biden White House. Much is also now being written about the inequality impact I described last year, but little is said about the sum total impact of these sorry facts of life on the financial system. These may also prove anything but transitory.

The first financial-system impact of high inflation and slow growth for anything but the S&P is both political and structural. With his back increasingly pushed to the wall by inflation’s toxic equality impact, Mr. Biden defended himself against the latest CPI numbers by arguing that many of them are due to monopolistic price controls best cured by rapid antitrust initiatives such as the one already launched against the meat industry.

Other …

12 01, 2022

FedFin Forecast: Prudential Regulatory Framework Set for Structural Change Largely Built on Current Standards

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-24T15:49:23-04:00January 12th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, FedFin begins our 2022 forecasts with this in-depth report on bank regulation. In general, we conclude that the context of decisions in 2022 and beyond will shift from a focus on tailoring efficiencies and burden relief to one emphasizing risk mitigation, fairness, equity, and — for the very biggest banks — a smaller systemic footprint. This report looks at the impact of pending personnel decisions as well as the outlook for climate-risk, new capital rules, FBO standards, and other key issues….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…