#HTM – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

20 03, 2023

FedFin Analysis: Possible Cures for a Viral Run

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T16:12:34-04:00March 20th, 2023|The Vault|

Among the most vexing issues in the wake of SVB’s failure is the extent to which social media may have led to the first “viral run,” a run akin to the meme-stock volatility that lead the SEC and others to fear a new form of “flash-crash” risk. In this report, we assess current policy options related to deposit runs resulting from social media, an issue cited frequently by HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) as a top priority as he begins work on post-SVB financial standards. We note some remedies – e.g., a ban on deposit-related communication were they permissible under various constitutional and statutory free-speech edicts.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

20 03, 2023

LIQUIDITY33

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T16:12:26-04:00March 20th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Analysis: Possible Cures for a Viral Run

Among the most vexing issues in the wake of SVB’s failure is the extent to which social media may have led to the first “viral run,” a run akin to the meme-stock volatility that lead the SEC and others to fear a new form of “flash-crash” risk. In this report, we assess current policy options related to deposit runs resulting from social media, an issue cited frequently by HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) as a top priority as he begins work on post-SVB financial standards. We note some remedies – e.g., a ban on deposit-related communication were they permissible under various constitutional and statutory free-speech edicts. In this report, we thus assess tools more readily at hand that federal regulators might deploy now that social media’s destabilizing impact has been recognized, noting the challenges of forestalling runs without at the same time providing opinions on individual banking organizations or issuing preemptive systemic protections that would have the effect of eliminating deposit-insurance limits. This report will thus also assess other options, including standards prohibiting deposit-related “exclusivity” requirements, dedicated Fed liquidity facilities, and revisions to the liquidity rules. Options to revise FDIC coverage to address this risk through structural changes to coverage thresholds will be detailed in a forthcoming Petrou op-ed.

LIQUIDITY33.pdf…

17 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T16:50:38-04:00March 17th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

17 03, 2023

REFORM216

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T14:27:00-04:00March 17th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions. While Republicans strongly opposed tougher capital rules when Chairman Powell appeared before them just last week (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE73), we expect them now only to make token statements of concern about any changes that do not adversely affect smaller banking organizations. In addition to looking at specific regulatory rewrites, this report assesses timing, noting in particular how the pending end-game rules could serve as the vehicle for changes the agencies hope to muster quickly in order to minimize demands for structural change to their own powers.

REFORM216.pdf…

28 02, 2023

DAILY022823

Eliza Allen2023-02-28T17:16:34-05:00February 28th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

CFPB Treads Gingerly on Mortgage-Disclosure Exceptions

In a notice emphasizing the CFPB’s distaste for allowing regulatory exceptions, the Bureau asks for comment on an application for one to which it seems a bit more sympathetic.

FDIC Sees Sunny Side of Bank Earnings Data

In its review of banking-industry fourth-quarter results, the FDIC today notes a sharp increase in the gap between bank loan yield and deposit interest costs.

Basel Forecasts End-Game Capital Shortfalls

The Basel Committee today issued its latest monitoring report, finding that large global banks saw capital decreases to pre-pandemic levels even as liquidity ratios continued to improve.

Bipartisan China Bills Fly Through HFSC Markup

As anticipated, HFSC today reported five bills to censure China and protect Taiwan, along with bills addressing drug-trafficking financing, biomedical security and bank service company examinations.

Democrats Stand Firm versus Privacy Preemption

Following an orderly and bipartisan start to today’s HFSC markup, Democrats and Republicans today came to verbal blows over the Chairman’s data privacy bill.

Daily022823.pdf…