#payment-system

27 01, 2022

FedFin on: U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-11T16:11:59-04:00January 27th, 2022|The Vault|

Months after initially promising to release a discussion draft on central bank digital currency (CBDC), the Federal Reserve is now seeking comment on whether and how it might create one. Reflecting the hesitancy of several FRB leaders, Chairman Powell included, the draft emphatically states that the Board has made no decision to issue a CBDC and, should it do so, it will seek at least tacit approval from both Congress and whichever Administration is in charge at the time.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

21 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Few Financial Fall-Out Shelters If Russia Invades Ukraine

Arezou Rafikian-12023-04-24T11:51:21-04:00January 21st, 2022|The Vault|

Perhaps nothing says as emphatically that market valuations are divorced from reality as the fact that equity and bond markets are essentially ignoring the increasing risk that Russia invades Ukraine. Investors have grown used to shrugging off geopolitical risks – see just the brief chills after Russia’s previous invasions of Crimea and Georgia as cases in point. But this time is different because this time Ukraine is a critical link in Europe’s energy supply, macroeconomic stress in Europe will have immediate global repercussions, and Vladimir Putin is making it more than clear that this time he’s not just playing around with minor nations he thinks of as vassal states. This time, he will go to the economic map if he believes the Western response to his invasion might pose too much risk to Russia’s economy and his popularity and there’s no reason to doubt him. As a result, I hope Treasury and the Fed are keeping a careful eye on the Treasury market and global payment system, not to mention on the cyber-security on which core market infrastructure rests. The threat is all too real.

Treasury has long known that the “nuclear option” when it comes to economic sanctions is denying Russia access to any financial institution with any kind of domicile in the U.S. or any point of access to the U.S. payment system topped off by SWIFT sanctions blocking Russian access to the global payment system. If Treasury fires these high-powered missiles – and it’s likely to have …

12 01, 2022

FedFin Forecast: Prudential Regulatory Framework Set for Structural Change Largely Built on Current Standards

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-24T15:49:23-04:00January 12th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, FedFin begins our 2022 forecasts with this in-depth report on bank regulation. In general, we conclude that the context of decisions in 2022 and beyond will shift from a focus on tailoring efficiencies and burden relief to one emphasizing risk mitigation, fairness, equity, and — for the very biggest banks — a smaller systemic footprint. This report looks at the impact of pending personnel decisions as well as the outlook for climate-risk, new capital rules, FBO standards, and other key issues….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

11 01, 2022

FedFin Assessment: Powell Sidesteps Many Challenges, Promises Much

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-24T15:54:45-04:00January 11th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE66), we listened closely today to gauge the extent to which Chairman Powell faces a serious challenge to reconfirmation. At least as far as Senate Banking Members are concerned, he doesn’t. Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) and other Democrats lambasted Mr. Powell over insider-trading allegations and what they called the Fed’s unresponsiveness, all still were cordial and seemed generally to blame the problem on institutional failures, not the chairman. Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) called the Fed’s diversity policy “outrageous,” but also does not seem inclined….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

10 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Senate Banking’s CBDC Questionnaire

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-25T14:04:57-04:00January 10th, 2022|The Vault|

It’s certain that Jay Powell’s confirmation hearing will put him through the wringer on inflation, equality, “insider” trading, and the rules he’ll foster under the new vice chair for supervision. This is enough to try even the most patient of souls, but there’s another issue senators should be sure to raise: what’s taking the Fed so, so long to start its CBDC deliberations, let alone conclude them?

After initially dismissing the need for a U.S. central bank digital currency, Chairman Powell announced last May that the Board would seek public comment sometime that summer. At about the same time, Gov. Brainard spoke about a possible CBDC construct and the Boston Fed announced a technical build-out project along with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Hub also has CBDC ambitions. Although Fed officials were quick to point out that none of these nor any of the subsequent high-profile papers commits the Fed to anything, work seemed well under way to join the dozens of other central banks convinced that CBDC is essential in the quick-digitization payment future clearly emerging outside the reach of central bankers.

What’s happened since the summer CBDC storm? Not much.

Mr. Powell and other Fed officials at one point promised that the CBDC paper would come in September, but autumn came and went. The Fed’s certainly been busy tidying up after its “transitory” inflation goof and ongoing macroeconomic challenges, but it neglects CBDC at its and our peril.

First, whether …

15 11, 2021

Karen Petrou: The Real Problem in the Omarova Hearing

Arezou Rafikian2023-06-01T13:46:35-04:00November 15th, 2021|The Vault|

Later this week, the Senate Banking Committee will hold Saule Omarova’s confirmation hearing for Comptroller of the Currency. Many expect this to be a knock-down, drag-out between the progressive bank-reform agenda and the banking industry’s antipathy thereto. This it surely will be, but to watch only these fireworks is to miss the longer-burning fire below: renewed questions about whether banks are public utilities or private companies with unique privileges fully reimbursed by virtue of unduly-burdensome regulation. It is by this choice — not Ms. Omarova’s most-uncertain confirmation — that the future of U.S. finance will be decided.

Although Ms. Omarova has surely moved on from the Marxist views of which she is accused based on an early academic paper, she clearly sides with those who think that banking is for public purpose, not private profit. Indeed, according to at least some of her work, banking can’t be trusted to banks and thus should be seconded to the federal government or outside experts presumed to be not just objective, but also disinterested in all but the public good.

This is not a new view. After the S&L crisis of the 1980s and the subsequent banking debacle in the early part of the next decade, much was made of the subsidy banks were said to enjoy from unique access to FDIC insurance and the Fed’s discount window. Bankers strongly disputed any subsidy, but I said then and believe now that banks then indeed enjoyed special-purpose charters that warranted not just tough safety-and-soundness …

2 11, 2021

FedFin Assessment: The Near-Term Stablecoin Regulatory Agenda

Arezou Rafikian2023-06-02T13:04:23-04:00November 2nd, 2021|The Vault|

As noted yesterday, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) was joined by the OCC and FDIC yesterday issuing a report calling for prompt Congressional action to regulate stablecoins and, even in its absence, also for fast action by federal regulators and the FSOC. In part because it poses the largest regulatory void, the most worrisome of the risks the report details arises from the role stablecoins may play in the payment system and resulting threats to systemic stability and competition. Issues germane to digital-asset trading (defined to include lending and related activities) are described but largely left to regulators; SEC Chairman Gensler has made it clear (see Client Report INVESTOR19) that he intends to act and the CFTC-chair nominee has done the same.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.

…

14 10, 2021

FedFin on: Global Systemic-Risk Standards for Stablecoin Arrangements

Arezou Rafikian2023-06-15T14:58:37-04:00October 14th, 2021|The Vault|

Responding to requests from the G7, G20, and FSB, this report addresses market-infrastructure considerations related to systemically-important stablecoins that do not involve multi-currency baskets (e.g., Facebook’s Diem). The report builds on the FSB’s current principles and those on cross-border payments, but generally does not propose specific standards. Instead, it lays out how current global principles in this area should guide both stablecoin developers and regulators.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

13 09, 2021

Karen Petrou: Are Federal Reserve Banks Forever?

Arezou Rafikian2023-08-03T16:18:47-04:00September 13th, 2021|The Vault|

After my latest opinion piece appeared in Barron’s on Thursday, I was stunned by the virulence with which Barron’s readers — not exactly a bunch of Democratic Socialists — agreed with me not because of my reasoning, but because they believe the Fed in general and Jay Powell in particular are engaged in a sweeping conspiracy on behalf of the wealthiest global capitalists. The new controversy over Reserve Bank president stock holdings only adds fuel to this fire. Are Federal Reserve Banks forever? Their history suggests maybe not.

Reserve Banks are creatures of 1913, created in concert with the Federal Reserve Board in Washington as part of the awkward compromise that persuaded those who feared a dominant federal banking powerhouse that the central bank would have roots outside the largest cities and thus be beyond the reach of New York’s powerful bankers.

This balancing act is in fact one reason the Board is headquartered in Washington, not New York, and also why the New York Fed is the most powerful among nominal equals when it comes to its fellow Reserve Banks. The fundamental anachronism of the System is evident in its geographic footprint — a heavy concentration of Reserve banks up to Kansas City and St. Louis and then not a single Reserve Bank for all of the mountain and western states but the lone edifice still standing apart in San Francisco.

The ethics rules now at issue due to recent revelations are also artifacts of not just the Reserve …