#scenario analysis – Federal Financial Analytics

16 04, 2024

DAILY041624

Eliza Allen2024-04-16T17:10:39-04:00April 16th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

House GOP Takes on New Merger Guidelines

The House Small Business Committee today sent a GOP letter to the FTC and Justice Department strongly protesting new merger guidelines (see FSM Report MERGER13) on grounds that they sharply curtail needed small-business capital.

House Hikes Iran Sanctions

Working through a series of sanctions bills in the wake of recent geopolitical developments, the House yesterday voted 294-105 to advance H.R. 5921, a bill introduced by Rep. Huizenga (R-MI) that prohibits Treasury from authorizing transactions by U.S. financial institutions in connection with Iranian imports or exports other than food, medicine, and other humanitarian assistance.

House Passes Bill Targeting China-Iran Petroleum Trade

Continuing its response to recent geopolitical events, the House yesterday voted by a 383-11 margin to pass H.R. 5923, a bill from Reps. Lawler (R-NY) and Gottheimer (D-NJ) that would require the President to periodically determine if any Chinese financial institutions have purchased petroleum or petroleum products from Iran, stating that U.S. financial institutions also may not open or maintain certain accounts with Chinese institutions that have done so.

Warren Again Targets OCC Merger Decisions

Continuing recent attacks on the OCC’s approach to mergers, Sens. Warren (D-MA) and Blumenthal (D-CT) yesterday sent a letter to Acting Comptroller Hsu sharply criticizing the agency’s decision first to allow NYCB to acquire Flagstar bank and then do the same shortly thereafter for Signature.

OCC Toughens LCR, NSFR via New Reporting Requirements

The OCC today sought public comment as required by law for …

2 01, 2024

AI4

Eliza Allen2024-01-02T10:14:03-05:00January 2nd, 2024|1- Financial Services Management|

AI Financial Risk, Rules

Bipartisan Senate legislation has been introduced to press FSOC to do more than highlight artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential threat to financial stability. The measure instead requires the Council to undertake a rapid study of AI’s financial stability risk and report to Congress on conclusions that must then be advanced through FSOC designation and federal-agency action. The bill also gives the SEC more authority to address at least some of the risks its chairman has identified that may be posed by predictive analytics, including AI. New AI-related stress testing would also be likely.

AI4.pdf…

6 11, 2023

DAILY110623

Eliza Allen2023-11-06T16:52:37-05:00November 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Finds Bank Vulnerabilities Worrisome, But Manageable

Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff today released their latest assessment of the U.S. banking system’s vulnerability, updating its methodology now to include unrealized losses – clearly a lesson the FRB-NY analysts learned the hard way earlier this year. Although some measures of systemic risk hovers around 2008 levels, the FRB-NY capital-stress model remains at historically low levels compared to 2008 stress. However, incorporating unrealized losses “the 2023 scenario” finds banks at “somewhat elevated” levels compared to historical norms.

Cook Points to Emerging Systemic Worries

FRB Gov. Lisa Cook today said that the U.S. financial system is considerably more robust than it was in the mid-2000s, basing her analysis on the Fed’s most recent financial-stability assessment (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC95). Much in her talk echoes the Fed’s report, with Gov. Cook noting she is particularly focused on NBFI leverage and, going beyond the Fed’s current thinking, also the systemic risk AI may pose.

Daily110623.pdf…

12 10, 2023

DAILY101223

Eliza Allen2023-10-12T17:09:17-04:00October 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FSB Calls for More Private Climate Disclosures

Expressing considerable satisfaction with climate-risk disclosure progress, the FSB today released a report finding that all member jurisdictions either have or plan climate disclosure regimes, but there still needs to be greater private-sector self-reporting.

Pressure Builds for Heightened Iran, China Sanctions

Ahead of the hearing we anticipated earlier this week, HFSC Republicans have introduced several bills designed to increase financial pressures on Iran to punish it for the Hamas attack.

EU Regulators Add ESG Considerations to Regulatory, Supervisory Standards

In a bit of gold plating for what it believes to be the public good, the European Banking Authority today issued a report pressing for Pillar 1 capital charges for activities posing ESG risks with particular attention to climate.

OMB Redesigns Federal Rulemaking to Consider, Increase Competition

Acting under the President’s competition executive order (see Client Report MERGER6), OMB’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs yesterday issued new guidance governing federal rulemaking stipulating express assessment of the impact of new or prospective rules to enhance market competition.

CFPB, DoJ Issue Immigration Discrimination Warning

Taking action that may in some cases put lenders in conflict with state law, the CFPB and DoJ stated today that “unnecessary or overbroad reliance” on immigration status in a credit decision may violate the ECOA.

Daily101223.pdf…

25 09, 2023

DAILY092523

Eliza Allen2023-09-25T16:05:07-04:00September 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF Report: CBDC Designs Could Boost Financial Inclusion

On Friday, the IMF released a report concluding that a well-designed CBDC could foster financial inclusion and act as an entry point for the unbanked to the broader financial system. This will strengthen Democratic demands for a U.S. CBDC, but we expect GOP opposition to remain firm and the Fed’s posture to retain its current focus on wholesale CBDCs.

FRB-NY: Stablecoins, MMFs Have Same Dynamic Runs

An FRB New York study today concludes that stablecoin investors behaved similarly to MMF investors in numerous recent runs. Staff found that investors consider a stablecoin to have been effectively depegged once its price drops below $0.99 which triggers a run and mirrors the dynamics of MMFs “breaking the buck.”

Senate Dems Target SIFI Designation, Scenarios to Curb Climate Risk

Senator Warren (D-MA) along with Sens. Sanders (I-VT), Heinrich (D-NM), Markey (D-MA), Whitehouse (D-RI), and Merkley (D-OR) today released a letter dated last Wednesday to Treasury Secretary Yellen and Climate Counselor Zindler calling on the Department to significantly increase the urgency with which it targets climate-related financial risk.

Daily092523.pdf…

11 07, 2023

DAILY071123

Eliza Allen2023-07-11T16:38:06-04:00July 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Staff: Climate Tradition Risk Meaningful, Manageable

A new blog post from Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff concludes that climate-transition risk in bank loan portfolios is meaningful, but also manageable. The paper uses general-equilibrium models to focus on forward-looking climate risk in scenarios based on current policy as well as orderly and disorderly transitions, an approach it believes differ from much retrospective analysis of carbon emissions as a measure of transition risk.

CFPB, OCC Team Up To Sanction BofA Transaction, Card Account Practices

The CFPB and OCC today took action against Bank of America in ways that renew questions about potential overlaps between the CFPB’s jurisdiction and that of the banking agencies. The costlier of the two actions from the CFPB ordered the bank to pay over $170 million in civil monetary penalties and restitution for a range of practices the Bureau regards as abusive and deceptive (see FSM Report CONSUMER39).

GOP Urges Supreme Court to Uphold Fifth Circuit CFPB Decision

Continuing the GOP’s longstanding campaign to redesign the CFPB, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC), Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC), and 130 Members of Congress filed an amicus brief today urging the Supreme Court to uphold the Fifth Circuit’s decision declaring the CFPB’s funding mechanism unconstitutional.

Daily071123.pdf…

7 06, 2023

DAILY060723

Eliza Allen2023-06-07T16:50:58-04:00June 7th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Advances Supervisory Rewrite, Wants Quick End To End-Game

The Basel Committee’s release today of its latest meeting confirms that global regulators plan to revise 2012’s core supervisory principles (see FSM Report REFORM92) in light of recent events, releasing a consultation next month. Work is also under way to update the 2022 crypto standards (see FSM Report CRYPTO37) to address permissionless blockchains and stablecoins.

HFSC Urges Careful Use of China Sanctions

At today’s HFSC National Security Subcommittee hearing on maintaining the dollar’s global dominance, Subcommittee Chairman Luetkemeyer (R-MO) and Reps. Petterson (D-CO) and Kim (R-CA) argued that the sanctions that would follow an invasion of Taiwan need to be used carefully to avoid unintended harm to the dollar’s global status.

Durbin Leads Renewed Charge For Credit-Card Network Choice

As anticipated, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Durbin (D-IL) along with Sens. Welch (D-VT), Marshall (R-KS), and Vance (R-OH) today reintroduced legislation to extend routing-system requirements to credit cards. The bill, which has also been reintroduced in the House by Reps. Gooden (R-TX) and Lofgren (D-CA), slightly revises last year’s measure (see FSM Report INTERCHANGE10) by addressing security and operational risks associated with unaffiliated network routing requirements.

Daily060723.pdf…

11 04, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-11T16:52:14-04:00April 11th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

11 04, 2023

REFORM220

Eliza Allen2023-04-11T10:41:47-04:00April 11th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Top Brainard, Gruenberg Regulatory Rewrites

In this report, we drill down on prior forecasts (see Client Report REFORM219) of near-term regulatory action to identify the revisions sure to be prioritized as NEC Director Brainard and FDIC Chairman Gruenberg seek to reverse rules finalized over their objections when they were in the minority. Ms. Brainard does not have a direct role dictating what the Fed will do given central-bank independence, but she has a good deal of influence as evidenced most recently by the White House action list. Acting Comptroller Hsu was not casting formal votes over these years, but he was an influential staff leader in this area and clearly has his own list – see for example his efforts on bank merger and resolution policy (see FSM Report RESOLVE48). We expect he will concur with Vice Chairman Barr and Mr. Gruenberg if they all advance the rewrites to the tailoring rules to which Ms. Brainard and Mr. Gruenberg so strongly objected.

REFORM220.pdf…

3 03, 2023

Al030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-03T17:17:37-05:00March 3rd, 2023|3- This Week|

Gloves Off

When Chairman Powell comes before HFSC and Senate Banking this week, we’ll see if FedFin’s forecast for newly-rough going plays out, but all signs say it will. In the lead-up to the midterm, Democrats other than Sen. Warren (D-MA) who weren’t all that sympathetic to many Fed actions held their tongues in order to protect a central bank that, for all its putative independence, seemed aligned with Biden Administration statements promoting American prosperity and the near-term chances of reduced inflation. With the 2024 election looking even uglier than the midterm and Republicans in control of the House, Mr. Powell may find himself squeezed hard from both sides of the aisle, taking lots of heat on issues ranging from monetary policy and the debt ceiling to a panoply of Fed regulatory and payment-system decisions along with the pending nomination of a new vice chair.

Al030623.pdf…