Karen Petrou: Why U.S. Soft Power is So Squishy

2023-12-18T09:28:13-05:00December 18th, 2023|The Vault|

Late last week, Treasury issued a super-perky blog post asserting that U.S.-led sanctions will soon subdue Russia’s military might.  However, judging by the data Treasury rallies, saying sanctions subdued Russia’s war-making capabilities is akin to a Yorkie’s confidence that it can tackle a Rottweiler.  The terrier can indeed get in a few painful nips, but bring the big dog down?  It could if sanctions worked.  But, they don’t.  The more Treasury persuades itself they do, the faster U.S. might dissipates thanks to resolute attacks and internal insouciance.

Why has U.S. soft power gone so squishy?  Some problems are of the U.S.’s making, some not, but all pose a significant challenge as the world has again become a very dangerous place for a faltering super-power that not-unreasonably still thinks of itself as the bastion of democracy.

As I noted in a talk last week, one foundation of American might has long been the “Almighty dollar.”  As a lot of data make clear, the dollar remains potent, but it’s no longer decisive.  Nations come and go as reserve-currency issuers and the U.S. is going because, as I detail, it’s squandered the payment-system, financial-market efficacy, sovereign-obligation impregnability, and unquestioned rule-of-law pillars on which reserve-currency status rests.  Enemies wielding currencies they seek to turn into global go-tos combined with the anonymity and evasion power of digital assets don’t help, but the U.S. seems to be doing its damnedest to speed the dollar’s demise not by express action, but rather by unfounded assumptions that, …