#BIS – Federal Financial Analytics

26 09, 2023

DAILY092623

Eliza Allen2023-09-26T16:36:09-04:00September 26th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Analysis Blasts Lax Capital Regs, But We See Study Flaws

A new BIS paper uses confidential data to defend tough regulatory capital charges because bank internal measures of expected loss (EL) are “excessively optimistic.” However, this critique in our view is applicable only to internal models. It might be said that standardized-approach charges are also unduly optimistic if based on EL, but the entire Basel construct is intended to cover only EL, with loan-loss reserves, capital-conservation-buffers, the leverage ratio, and stress tests supposed to do the rest.

Basel Sees Large Bank Capital Improvements, Slight Liquidity Reductions

The Basel Committee today released the results of its monitoring exercise for the second half of 2022, finding that the largest banks’ capital ratios increased above pre-pandemic levels while liquidity coverage ratios declined. Under the fully phased-in Basel III framework, the average common equity tier 1 capital ratio increased from 12.5% to 12.7% for Group 1 banks from the first half of 2022 to the end of the year. Group 1 banks also reported regulatory capital shortfalls of $3.42 billion under this framework as of December 31, 2022, all of which was GSIB Tier II capital.

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13 09, 2023

DAILY091323

Eliza Allen2023-09-13T16:46:21-04:00September 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Plans Still More Nails in CBDC Congressional Coffin

The memo for tomorrow’s HFSC CBDC hearing leaves no doubt as to continuing staunch GOP opposition, with Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) reintroducing legislation barring the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals or using it to implement monetary policy.

FSI: Contingent Capital Fails as TLAC

Reinforcing the decision by U.S. agencies not to allow CoCo to serve as TLAC (see FSM Report TLAC9), a new BIS staff brief concludes that the current regulatory framework for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds may not be fit for purpose, encouraging regulators to rethink CoCo as well as to consider heightening disclosure standards.

Gensler Emphasizes Prime Broker, Crypto, AI Risks

SEC Chairman Gensler today highlighted his ongoing worries about prime brokers, reiterating leverage and systemic-risk concerns.

Chopra Suggests Bank Merger Rewrite in Works

CFPB Director Chopra today reiterated the Bureau’s priorities, stating that the current bank merger review process lacks analytical rigor which will soon be addressed in ways he did not specify.

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12 09, 2023

DAILY091223

Eliza Allen2023-09-12T17:19:22-04:00September 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GHOS Presses Basel Action on Lessons Learned

Basel’s group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) met yesterday, listing strong bank risk management and governance arrangements, effective supervision, and the need for a robust regulatory framework as the primary lessons it learned from this year’s banking turmoil. GHOS also pressed its members to finalize their Basel III reforms, noting that most plan to implement them by the end of 2024.

Gensler Takes Swing-Pricing, AI Fire

At today’s Senate Banking hearing with SEC Chairman Gensler, Democrats largely defended the pace and scope of recent SEC work while Republicans criticized the agency for rulemakings they said were ideologically driven and inadequately analyzed. Chairman Brown (D-OH) applauded the SEC’s crypto enforcement actions and encouraged it to examine broker and investment adviser use of AI. Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) and several other Republicans sharply criticized Mr. Gensler for what they said was his lack of transparency and responsiveness to congressional inquiries.

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5 09, 2023

DAILY090523

Eliza Allen2023-09-05T17:16:52-04:00September 5th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FSB Considers Resolution Construct Revamp

In addition to calling for full and consistent implementation of the Basel III framework, the FSB head’s letter to the G20 today stresses that this year’s bank failures challenge long-held views about deposit stickiness and the speed of bank runs, leading international standard-setters now to consider unspecified policy changes to the resolution construct.

BIS Study: Fed, FDIC Reassurances Offset Bank Run Risk

Contributing to analysis of viral runs and how to stop them, a new paper from BIS staff concludes that public communication from the Fed on banking system stability and from the FDIC on deposit insurance during crises can mitigate systemwide run risk, while similar statements from political figures such as President Biden are less effective.

IMF: Money Laundering Undermines Financial Stability

The IMF yesterday published a blog post on money laundering’s financial-stability impact, concluding that cross-border illicit payments result in equity-price declines, higher CDS costs, elevated perceived credit risk, and declines in deposits for the individual banks involved. The blog also states that there is a contagion dynamic as a result of spillover effects between targeted banks and other banks within the region.

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31 08, 2023

DAILY083123

Eliza Allen2023-08-31T16:04:01-04:00August 31st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Report: Big Tech in Insurance Poses Financial Stability Risks

The BIS Financial Stability Institute (FSI) released a report today highlighting the financial stability risks associated with big tech’s entry into insurance, noting that a big tech specific regulatory approach may be warranted. The report finds big tech has a significant footprint in the insurance industry as a service provider but its activities as risk carriers or intermediaries are limited. Thus, financial stability concerns stem from the concentration of technology services and linkages between financial institutions and commercial activities.

Fed Study: Fintech Partnerships Arbitrage National-Bank Preemption Power

A new study by Federal Reserve staff finds that strategic bank-fintech partnerships heavily and profitably target near- and low-prime consumers in states with restrictive interest rate ceilings. Thus, fintech partnerships – termed “rent-a-bank” arrangements by critics – in fact arbitrage national-bank preemption powers in states with strict usury ceilings. This is said to be due in large part to mainstream-bank and non-fintech aversion to higher-risk customers at lower interest rates.

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23 08, 2023

Daily082323

William Cross2023-08-23T15:54:55-04:00August 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Waters Blasts ICE/BKI Merger, Rejecting Recent Compromises

Reiterating her concerns about the ICE/Black Knight merger, HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) last night asked FTC Chair Khan not to approve it or, should it do so in light of recent settlements, add strict conditions. Rep. Waters is concerned by a recent divestment designed to appease the FTC, noting ICE’s propensity for raising prices in other markets and the adverse effect doing so would have on mortgage affordability, asking for prohibition on undue integration with the firm acquiring BKI’s pricing engine along with price transparency that should be applied not only to the merged firm, but also to other parties.

Global Regulators Press CCP Resolvability

Reflecting ongoing FSB concerns about CCP resilience, IOSCO and the BIS Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures today released a joint report on CCP best practices for addressing non default losses (NDLs), stressing that the report does not create new standards or provide new guidance.

Daily082323.pdf…

10 07, 2023

DAILY071023

Eliza Allen2023-07-10T16:43:24-04:00July 10th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC Lays Out Its ESG Priorities

The majority staff memo ahead of Wednesday’s HFSC hearing on ESG follows the outline anticipated last week and that laid out in the GOP agenda for ESG-related action (see Client Report ESG4).

OCC Concurs On Capital, Tries For The Merger Middle

Acting Comptroller Hsu today confirmed our assessment of Vice Chair Barr’s comments earlier today (see Client Report CAPITAL228) that the three banking agencies are aligned on the new capital construct to be shortly released for public comment.

Barr, Foster Demand Delay to Capital Rewrite

Anticipating Vice Chair Barr’s remarks this morning detailing near-term capital policy changes (see Client Report CAPITAL228), HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chair Barr (R-KY) and Ranking Member Foster (D-IL) sent a letter late Friday demanding that he appear before the Subcommittee to present the conclusions of his capital review and upcoming Basel III implementation plans prior to public release, asking also for details and likely outcomes for industry consolidation.

House Republicans Keep Spotlight On FRB-SF

Continuing the GOP’s attack on the San Francisco Fed’s supervision of SVB in the wake of what many believe are “woke” priorities, House Oversight Committee Chairman Comer (R-KY) was joined today by Financial Services Subcommittee Chairwoman McClain (R-MI) in sending a letter to FRB Chairman Powell taking serious issue with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Fed for what they describe as SVB-related transparency and communication failures.

BIS Survey: Most Central Banks Considering CBDCs

The BIS …

1 06, 2023

Daily060123

Eliza Allen2023-06-01T16:58:53-04:00June 1st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Head Presses for New-Age, Tough Bank Supervision

BIS General Manager Carstens today absolved central banks in general and the Fed by clear inference from fault in recent bank failures by way of recent interest-rate hikes. Noting also that the Basel III construct is very resilient in design and should have prevented these collapses and then the secondary systemic risk that resulted around the world, Mr. Carstens points instead to failures by bank senior management and directors to execute basic risk-management obligations.

Exec-Comp Clawback Bill Takes Shape

With additional GOP support now also on the Banking Committee, Sen. Warren (D-MA) today introduced a revised version of the earlier, also-bipartisan bill on executive-compensation clawbacks following mid-March bank failures (see FSM Report COMPENSATION35). The new bill covers only banks with assets above $10 billion and direct and indirect compensation over three years, a change from the prior bill’s attempt to capture all compensation.

CFPB Sounds P2P Alarm

Building on its 2022 deposit-insurance representations circular (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE113), the CFPB today released an issue spotlight warning consumers that funds are at risk with payment apps such as Venmo. The FDIC is heightening pressure on nonbanks that gather funds which consumers may confuse with insured deposits (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE117), but doing so for payment apps is far more challenging because funds move quickly in and out of insured accounts.

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19 05, 2023

DAILY051923

Eliza Allen2023-05-19T17:03:07-04:00May 19th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Strengthens Stand Against New Rules, Possible Supervisory Overkill

In case anyone doubted her meaning last week, FRB Gov. Bowman today repeated her strong opposition to the regulatory rewrites spelled out in what at first seemed the Fed’s but is now apparently only Vice Chairman Barr’s report (see Client Report REFORM221). Ms. Bowman also reiterates her call for an independent study, continued tailoring, and improved supervision.

Bills To Reduce Regulatory Independence Advance

As anticipated at his last hearing, HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) has now formally introduced three regulatory transparency bills. We will shortly provide clients with in-depth analyses of these bills, which we expect quickly to proceed to mark-up on largely party-line votes.

Warren Pounces On Reports Of Treasury-Bond Assessment Proposal

Sen. Warren (D-MA) yesterday sent a strongly-worded letter to FDIC Chairman Gruenberg demanding that the FDIC reject reported big bank plans to replenish the DIF with at-par Treasury bonds rather than the proposed special assessment (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE120).

BIS’s Carstens Dismisses Crypto, Calls For Tighter Non-bank Controls

In a wide-ranging speech today, BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens sharply criticized cryptocurrencies and called for greater regulation of the nonbank sector to avert a systemic financial crisis.

Daily051923.pdf…

21 04, 2023

DAILY042123

Eliza Allen2023-04-21T17:02:12-04:00April 21st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

House Republicans Renew Anti-Woke Banking Battle

In the latest GOP-led action against “woke” finance, HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) yesterday reintroduced the Fair Access to Banking Act (H.R. 2743), which would prevent large banks from limiting or refusing services to the fossil-fuel, digital-asset, and gun industries.

FRB Review Of CBDC Comments Leaves Open All Options

The Federal Reserve late yesterday released a summary of public comments received on its 2022 CBDC discussion draft (see FSM Report CBDC10), arraying comments in ways that make it difficult to judge who said what or where the preponderance of comments is to be found.

FSOC Advances Activity, Nonbank Systemic Designation, Regulation

As anticipated, all FSOC members today voted to advance two key proposals to redesign the U.S. systemic framework and speed action on two clear systemic designation priorities: hedge-fund interconnectedness with the banking system and nonbank mortgage companies.

Waters Praises FSOC, Presses for New Bank Standards

While commending FSOC’s action earlier today, HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) urged it to quickly go farther, pressing the Council to send the FRB and other banking agencies recommendations for post-SVB reforms.

BIS Paper: Fintech Innovation Amplifies Inequality

A new BIS working paper on fintech concludes that increased financial-technology innovation amplifies inequalities between sophisticated and unsophisticated investors and that bridging this gap will require policy focus on fintech accessibility and usability.

Daily042123.pdf…