#credit risk – Federal Financial Analytics

15 03, 2024

Al031824

Arezou Rafikian2024-03-15T17:23:21-04:00March 15th, 2024|3- This Week|

Answered Prayers?

Banks have been asking regulators for years – decades? – to update 1995 merger guidance. So the banking agencies are beginning to do, but not exactly as banks would have liked to see it done. Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) thinks the OCC’s proposed merger policy is too soft, our analysis (see FSM Report MERGER14) and that of many others finds it a formidable barrier to all but the simplest, smallest transactions. Now comes the FDIC. As the schedule below makes clear, it plans on Thursday to issue a proposal based on its 2021 RFI (see FSM Report MERGER9). We doubt any bank-merger policy influenced as strongly by CFPB Director Chopra will be a bank merger policy banks will like any better than the OCC’s, although some compromises may have to be made if Republican members of the FDIC board are willing to contemplate at least some of what Mr. Chopra, surely seconded by Chair Gruenberg, wants done.

Al031824.pdf…

14 03, 2024

CREDITCARD37

Eliza Allen2024-03-14T15:57:19-04:00March 14th, 2024|1- Financial Services Management|

Credit-Card Late Fee Regulation

Following a very controversial proposal, the CFPB has finalized credit-card late-fee restrictions in a final rule that does not differ significantly from the proposal on its key point: elimination of the manner in which inflation adjustments are now made by credit-card lenders when it comes to late fees. The rule will sharply curtail issuer revenue related to these fees, likely affecting the market as a whole rather than the large issuers expressly covered by the new rule. Although the Bureau did not go as far as proposed in several areas, its core late-fee standard could lead lenders to raise interest rates, curtail rewards, reduce high-risk exposures, or otherwise redesign products with adverse implications for borrowers who meet their monthly-payment requirements in a timely fashion.

CREDITCARD37.pdf…

18 12, 2023

FSOC29

Eliza Allen2023-12-18T11:36:07-05:00December 18th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: FSOC Worries A Lot, Watches, Waits

This year’s FSOC report trods much old ground with two exceptions. The first pertains to a new focus on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and new, generative technologies. That said, the report does little beyond highlight this risk and include it among all the others federal agencies are told to monitor. Private credit now also alarms FSOC, with insurance company investment in this sector of particular systemic concern in concert with the sectors’ CRE and junk-bond exposures, offshore reinsurance, and PE ownership. As detailed in this report, banks are found to be resilient and have ample capital even as the report supports consideration of pending regulatory revisions. Banking agencies are also asked to monitor uninsured-deposit levels and assess run-risk in light of social media and other accelerants. In sharp contrast to more alarmist statements in the past and extensive Treasury reports (see Client Report CRYPTO32), this year’s report downplays cryptoasset risk because federal regulators are said to have taken steps to contain it. The report also reiterates FSOC’s continuing focus on cyber and climate risk, with the closed session preceding the meeting considering a framework being developed by the OCC to measure and monitor financial risks and bank exposures. Agencies are also encouraged to pursue comparable, “decision-useful” climate disclosures. The LIBOR transition is considered a success and no longer poses a systemic risk.

FSOC29.pdf…

12 12, 2023

DAILY121223

Eliza Allen2023-12-12T17:09:22-05:00December 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF Calls for Enhanced Climate-Risk Analyses, Stress-Testing

Calling for implementation of the Basel Committee’s climate-related financial risk principles (see FSM Report CLIMATE14), the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department Director, Tobias Adrian, today pressed central banks to enhance their climate risk analyses and adapt stress-testing frameworks to better reflect climate-financial risk transmission and amplification channels.

Agencies Come Under Still More Workplace-Practice Scrutiny, Political Pressure

As we noted last week, House Republicans are now using ongoing assertions of FDIC workplace dysfunction to attack the OCC.

HFSC Subcomm Considers Sanctions Enforcement

Today’s HFSC National Security Subcommittee hearing focused primarily on critiques of US energy sanctions enforcement related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

House Select Committee Calls on Fed to Stress Test China Risk

The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party today released a bipartisan report urging Congress to direct the Fed to stress-test U.S. banks for their ability to withstand Chinese market risk, produce classified reports on these assessments, and consider the financial market impact of potential sanctions on Chinese financial firms.

Basel Proposes Modest Fix to IRR Standards, Post-SVB Revisions Await

As anticipated, the Basel Committee today released a consultation revising global interest-rate risk (IRR), standards updating current banking-book standards (see FSM Report IRR7) to toughen the IRR-shock calibration.

McKernan Extends Capital Olive Branch

FDIC Director McKernan today offered an end-game compromise that might actually lead to final rules in 2024 that defer some of the …

27 11, 2023

GSE-112723

Eliza Allen2023-11-27T11:49:59-05:00November 27th, 2023|4- GSE Activity Report|

An Advanced View of Regulatory Capital?

The most significant thing in FHFA’s final capital rule is not what is to be done, but what FHFA left out: ending the GSEs’ advanced-approach requirement. As a result, Fannie and Freddie can still use models for key calculations, a requirement that makes more sense for two complex organizations than it did for the regional banks also long subject to advanced-approach requirements even though the rules required them, like GSIBs, to hold the higher of the standardized or advanced approach.

GSE-112723.pdf…

16 11, 2023

GSE-111623

Eliza Allen2023-11-16T12:35:35-05:00November 16th, 2023|4- GSE Activity Report|

More for Mortgages?

As our reports on the Senate and House hearings with bank regulators made clear, our prediction that the agencies would compromise on mortgage risk-based capital requirements will prove itself in the final standards. However, it’s far from clear if the compromise the agencies think will satisfy Congress will do much beyond directly addressing concerns that the proposal adversely affects LMI loans.

GSE-111623.pdf…

13 11, 2023

DAILY111323

Eliza Allen2023-11-13T17:07:02-05:00November 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Banking GOP Demand End-Game Withdrawal, Holistic Review Release

Making still clearer their line of attack at tomorrow’s hearing, all GOP Members of the Senate Banking Committee today sent Chairs Powell, Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller Hsu another letter demanding the withdrawal of the capital proposals.

FRB-PHL: Fintech Spots Credit Risk Better than Banks

A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia finds not only that fintech loan-risk scoring performed well during the pandemic, but also that the proprietary loan rating systems of large fintech companies better predict default likelihood in the personal loan market compared to traditional measures of credit risk.

Barr Stands By His Proposals

Vice chairman Barr’s testimony for forthcoming hearings emphasizes that the banking system is resilient and sound, eschewing the caveats included in Friday’s supervisory report about pockets of weakness.

Gruenberg Defends DIF Rewrites

While echoing comments from Messrs. Barr and Hsu about the sound banking system, FDIC Chair Gruenberg’s testimony pointed to what he called significant downside risk from higher rates, geopolitical tension, unrealized losses, and other factors.

Hsu Differentiates OCC Supervision, Defends Regs

Acting Comptroller Hsu’s testimony reiterates Mr. Barr’s comment about a sound banking system, pointedly noting that all of the recent failures were state-chartered.

Daily111323.pdf…

11 10, 2023

DAILY101123

Eliza Allen2023-10-11T16:47:36-04:00October 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Targets U.S. Leverage Ratio, NBFIs

In remarks during the Morocco IMF/Bank meeting today, FRB Gov. Bowman contrasted U.S. bank resilience with the IMF’s findings yesterday on potential vulnerabilities as rates rise and macroeconomic conditions soften.

FSB Reiterates Stability Concerns

The FSB’s latest work plan reiterates all it most recently said to the G20.

CFPB Barrels Down on “Basic” Banking Fees

In conjunction with a new White-House junk-fee initiative, the CFPB today issued “guidance” – i.e., essentially a final rule – banning large banks and credit unions from collecting “unreasonable” fees for what the Bureau considers reasonable and “basic” account information.

SEC Throws Wrench into TLAC Standards

As we noted yesterday, the FSB’s assessment of the global resolution framework’s effectiveness found significant glitches it urges national regulators quickly to address via standards such as those now pending in the U.S. to bring smaller banking organizations into the resolution-planning regime (see FSM Report LIVINGWILL23).

OFR Study: Short-Selling Does Not Harm Financial Stability

OFR today released a model-based study that finds no evidence that short-selling adversely affects financial stability.

Daily101123.pdf…

3 10, 2023

DAILY100323

Eliza Allen2023-10-03T16:38:58-04:00October 3rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Hsu Notes Benefits of International Data Hub, Warns of Nonbank Risks

In remarks today, Acting Comptroller Hsu focused on the benefits of the BIS International Data Hub, noting for example that it provides national authorities with a horizontal view of key risks affecting the global financial system difficult to obtain elsewhere.

Basel Sees End-Game in Sight, US Off Late List

Finally taking the U.S. off the tardy list, the Basel Committee today updated its Basel III implementation dashboard, finding that as of Q3 2023 the US, along with the EU, UK, China, Switzerland, South Africa, and Hong Kong are now working to adopt revisions to the credit valuation adjustment and operational risk frameworks, the standardized approach for credit risk, the minimum requirements for market risk, and the output floor – i.e., Basel’s end-game.

Daily100323.pdf…

26 09, 2023

DAILY092623

Eliza Allen2023-09-26T16:36:09-04:00September 26th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Analysis Blasts Lax Capital Regs, But We See Study Flaws

A new BIS paper uses confidential data to defend tough regulatory capital charges because bank internal measures of expected loss (EL) are “excessively optimistic.” However, this critique in our view is applicable only to internal models. It might be said that standardized-approach charges are also unduly optimistic if based on EL, but the entire Basel construct is intended to cover only EL, with loan-loss reserves, capital-conservation-buffers, the leverage ratio, and stress tests supposed to do the rest.

Basel Sees Large Bank Capital Improvements, Slight Liquidity Reductions

The Basel Committee today released the results of its monitoring exercise for the second half of 2022, finding that the largest banks’ capital ratios increased above pre-pandemic levels while liquidity coverage ratios declined. Under the fully phased-in Basel III framework, the average common equity tier 1 capital ratio increased from 12.5% to 12.7% for Group 1 banks from the first half of 2022 to the end of the year. Group 1 banks also reported regulatory capital shortfalls of $3.42 billion under this framework as of December 31, 2022, all of which was GSIB Tier II capital.

Daily092623.pdf…