#Federalreserve – Federal Financial Analytics

22 09, 2023

DAILY092223

Eliza Allen2023-09-22T17:19:47-04:00September 22nd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Stands Firm Opposing Pending Rules

Making clear that her concerns with pending rules have in no way abated, FRB Governor Bowman today stated that any proposal considered by the Board or jointly with the other banking agencies must be focused on remediating the identified concerns, informed by data and genuine discussion within each participating agency and with policymakers, and developed through a transparent process that is open to public comment. Citing the FRB’s recent proposals including the Basel III endgame (see Client Report CAPITAL234), LTD requirements (see FSM Report TLAC9), and the CRA rewrite (see FSM Report CRA32), she acknowledges that multiple interrelated proposals may complicate submitting meaningful comments, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder feedback.

Daily092223.pdf…

20 09, 2023

DAILY092023

Eliza Allen2023-09-20T17:11:25-04:00September 20th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Brown, Rounds Agree: AI Credit-Underwriting Warrants Regulatory Attention

At today’s Senate Banking hearing on AI in financial services, Chairman Brown (D-OH) argued that AI should be governed by the same rules as the rest of the financial system, with new law necessary if existing rules prove inadequate.

HFSC FinCEN Bills Draw Bipartisan Support

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) at today’s markup praised the scope of bipartisan support on today’s FinCEN, sanctions, and other national security bills.

HFSC Delays Bipartisan Sanction Bill Vote

Today’s HFSC markup also considered two bills addressing sanctions policy: H.R. 5512 from Rep. Sherman (D-CA) to require bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions on Russia and Belarus and H.R. 760 from Rep. Barr (R-KY) imposing blocking sanctions on Chinese defense or surveillance companies and the third-party companies that supply them.

HFSC Dems Continue Strongly Opposing GOP Anti-CBDC Measure

The bipartisan spirit of today’s HFSC markup dissipated as Members fiercely debated H.R. 5403 from Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN), a bill that would bar the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals.

Gruenberg: New Shadow Bank Standards Would Cure a Capital Proposal Problem

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg today gave remarks arguing that FSOC along with OFR should establish a new reporting framework to assess the financial stability risks posed by nonbanks and ensure that public reporting is sufficient for market participants to understand nonbank counterparty risk.

HFSC Reports FinCEN, Sanctions, CBDC Bills

HFSC today unanimously reported H.R 760 sanctioning Chinese defense companies, H.R. 5512 requiring bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions …

18 09, 2023

DAILY091823

Eliza Allen2023-09-18T16:46:46-04:00September 18th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Dems Slam Fed Climate Scenarios

Sens. Markey (D-MA), Warren (D-MA), Sanders (I-VT) and eight additional Democratic Senators and House Members sent a letter to Chair Powell today demanding that the Fed ensures that the financial institutions it oversees properly address the threat of climate change. Claiming that the Fed’s climate pilot scenarios are not sufficiently rigorous, the letter demands that the Fed require banks to submit and execute plans to align their activities with climate targets, such as reducing financed emissions.

Top Treasury Official Sounds Big-Tech Payments Alarm

Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Graham Steele Friday warned that Big-Tech firms’ entry into financial services could result in increased market concentration and predatory pricing, highlighting their ability to leverage existing commercial relationships as well as network effects. Mr. Steele also named consumer-data rights and junk fees as top priorities, praising the CFPB’s actions on personal data (see FSM Report DATA3) and credit-card late fees (see FSM Report CREDITCARD36).

Daily091823.pdf…

15 09, 2023

Al091823

Eliza Allen2023-09-15T16:53:45-04:00September 15th, 2023|3- This Week|

Let It Be Resolved…

Or, maybe not. As detailed below, FedFin has delved into the depths of three new proposals designed to ensure that any big U.S. bank that isn’t made still more impregnable by all the new rules proposed and to come is also indestructible. Karen Petrou has written about the wisdom – if there is any – of making big banks de facto utilities, but this will occur only if all of the new rules work as intended. We’ve had our doubts about that with regard to recent proposals, and our review of the new resolution proposals raises still greater concerns.

Al091823.pdf…

14 09, 2023

DAILY091423

Eliza Allen2023-09-14T16:47:09-04:00September 14th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IOSCO Proposes Leveraged Loan, CLO Best Practices

IOSCO today released a consultation report proposing best practices for leveraged loans and CLOs that address origination and refinancing, EBITDA and documentation transparency, aligning interests from loan origination to end investors, managing conflicts of interest throughout the intermediation chain, and disclosures.

Durbin, Marshall Press Credit-Card Interchange Bill

Reiterating concerns expressed last month and comments yesterday on the Senate floor, Senate Whip and Judiciary Chairman Durbin (D-IL) and Sen. Marshall (R-KS) were joined this time by Sen. Welch (D-VT) and four House Members calling on Visa and Mastercard to reverse planned fee hikes.

GAO Presses for FSOC Power to Regulate, Not Just Designate

The GAO today issued a report recommending that Congress consider legislation allowing FSOC to compel regulatory action, arguing that this would better accomplish the Council’s mission because FSOC currently has limited power to respond to systemic risk.

HFSC GOP Highlight CBDC Privacy Concerns

As anticipated, HFSC Digital Assets GOP Members continued their staunch opposition to a U.S. CBDC, with Subcommittee Chairman Hill (R-AR) and Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) asserting that private innovation can modernize payments without the risk of government surveillance.

Brown Doubles Down on Opposition to House Crypto Bill

Making it still more clear that he is not supportive of pending House cryptoasset legislation, Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) today sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Yellen, SEC Chairman Gensler, and CFTC Chairman Benham asking for views on where new authority may be needed.

Daily091423.pdf…

13 09, 2023

DAILY091323

Eliza Allen2023-09-13T16:46:21-04:00September 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Plans Still More Nails in CBDC Congressional Coffin

The memo for tomorrow’s HFSC CBDC hearing leaves no doubt as to continuing staunch GOP opposition, with Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN) reintroducing legislation barring the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals or using it to implement monetary policy.

FSI: Contingent Capital Fails as TLAC

Reinforcing the decision by U.S. agencies not to allow CoCo to serve as TLAC (see FSM Report TLAC9), a new BIS staff brief concludes that the current regulatory framework for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds may not be fit for purpose, encouraging regulators to rethink CoCo as well as to consider heightening disclosure standards.

Gensler Emphasizes Prime Broker, Crypto, AI Risks

SEC Chairman Gensler today highlighted his ongoing worries about prime brokers, reiterating leverage and systemic-risk concerns.

Chopra Suggests Bank Merger Rewrite in Works

CFPB Director Chopra today reiterated the Bureau’s priorities, stating that the current bank merger review process lacks analytical rigor which will soon be addressed in ways he did not specify.

Daily091223.pdf…

11 09, 2023

M091123

Eliza Allen2023-09-11T09:40:12-04:00September 11th, 2023|6- Client Memo|

The PCA Cure for Much That Ails New Banking Rules

It’s a cliché, but it’s also true that one can’t beat something with nothing, especially in Washington. This is an axiom well worth remembering when it comes to all of the new capital and resolution rules befalling the nation’s biggest banks. I don’t think they need to be beaten back in their entirety – much in the proposals fixes vital flaws. But the agencies have done a remarkably poor job conjuring the impact of each of these sweeping proposals, let alone their cumulative impact in the context of all the other rules and the grievous supervisory lapses that contributed to recent failures no matter all the rules that could well have sufficed if enforced. Thus, the most obvious problems with this new construct are opacity, complexity, and most importantly reasonable doubts that, even with all these sharpened arrows, supervisors will still fail to draw their bows and then fire early and often. All too much in the new rules is false science, as even a cursory read of the impact analyses makes painfully clear. Instead of setting standards on lofty, unproven models, safeguards should rely on an engineering axiom: use warning lights that force prompt and corrective action. Think of the ground warning in an airplane followed by urgent “pull-up” commands and then go to work on the banking dashboard with clear, enforceable rules and new PCA thresholds forcing supervisory action and accountability.

M091123.pdf…

11 09, 2023

Karen Petrou: The PCA Cure for Much That Ails New Banking Rules

Eliza Allen2023-09-11T09:40:05-04:00September 11th, 2023|The Vault|

It’s a cliché, but it’s also true that one can’t beat something with nothing, especially in Washington. This is an axiom well worth remembering when it comes to all of the new capital and resolution rules befalling the nation’s biggest banks. I don’t think they need to be beaten back in their entirety – much in the proposals fixes vital flaws. But the agencies have done a remarkably poor job conjuring the impact of each of these sweeping proposals, let alone their cumulative impact in the context of all the other rules and the grievous supervisory lapses that contributed to recent failures no matter all the rules that could well have sufficed if enforced. Thus, the most obvious problems with this new construct are opacity, complexity, and most importantly reasonable doubts that, even with all these sharpened arrows, supervisors will still fail to draw their bows and then fire early and often. All too much in the new rules is false science, as even a cursory read of the impact analyses makes painfully clear. Instead of setting standards on lofty, unproven models, safeguards should rely on an engineering axiom: use warning lights that force prompt and corrective action. Think of the ground warning in an airplane followed by urgent “pull-up” commands and then go to work on the banking dashboard with clear, enforceable rules and new PCA thresholds forcing supervisory action and accountability.

The need for new PCA triggers is even more urgent than I thought when I first outlined…

8 09, 2023

Al091123

Eliza Allen2023-09-08T16:03:06-04:00September 8th, 2023|3- This Week|

We’re Flummoxed

FedFin’s in-depth analyses continue to plumb the strategic import of the post-SVB regulatory rewrite U.S. agencies have initiated and are determined to finish no matter industry and Congressional concern. As with our impact assessment of the capital proposal (see FSM Report CAPITAL230), our resolution-standard analyses look at key strategic points in what the agencies say they are doing and then also at what they leave out, what seems not to make as much sense as the agencies suggest, and where the sanguine impact analyses that always accompany these proposals may be at fault.

Al091123.pdf…

8 09, 2023

DAILY090823

Eliza Allen2023-09-08T16:06:25-04:00September 8th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Barr Backs Away from CBDC, Stands Firm vs. Stablecoins

FRB Vice Chair Barr today for the first time sided firmly with Chair Powell in approaching CBDCs with caution, if at all. Mr. Barr also emphasized not only that the Fed will not proceed with a CBDC without Executive Branch approval, but also now says that it would require “authorizing legislation,” not just Congressional “approval.”

Examining CBDC and Wholesale Payments

The FDIC today released an internal – but not necessarily independent – review of First Republic’s failure, largely saying that FDIC supervisory staff could have done better identifying emerging risks without strongly criticizing actions ahead of the bank’s collapse. This is blamed on factors evident at the time: e.g., rapid growth, poor liquidity and interest-rate risk management.

Fed Study: CBDC Unnecessary for Successful Wholesale Tokenization

As JPMorgan and other companies continue to advance wholesale digital payments and Chair Powell has suggested (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE73) that he may be open to wholesale CBDC, a new Fed staff study finds that tokenized wholesale payment systems do not require a new form of central-bank money.

Daily090823.pdf…