#FRB NY – Federal Financial Analytics

28 11, 2023

DAILY112823

Eliza Allen2023-11-28T16:35:09-05:00November 28th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-Dallas: Reciprocal Deposits Require Policy Attention

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas today released a staff study revaluating reciprocal deposits in the wake of SVB’s failure, concluding that policy-makers should reconsider concentration limits imposed in 2018 in conjunction with brokered-deposit constraints (see FSM Report DEPOSITINSURANCE108).

FRB-NY: OEFs Create Run-Run Risk

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released a staff study concluding that open-end funds (OEFs) experienced acute outflows after SVB failed, bank deposits received de facto unlimited insurance, and the FRB established the TBFP.

Chopra Testimony Ducks Tough Questions Ahead of Hearings

CFPB Director Chopra’s testimony for forthcoming hearings with HFSC and Senate Banking this week largely recaps Bureau action since his last appearance before Congress in June, with Mr. Chopra focusing on consumer debt issues highlighted in the CFPB’s recent consumer credit card market report.

FSB Wants Action on Crypto Vertical Integration

The FSB today released a report concluding that, while multifunction crypto-asset intermediaries (MCIs) currently pose limited financial-stability threat, cryptoasset stress events such as those that occurred over the past year present spillover risks to banks with concentrated deposit exposures to firms reliant on cryptoassets.

Basel Presses Supervisors to Enforce GSIB Data-Aggregation Standards

The Basel Committee today released a report finding that only two of the 31 GSIBs are fully compliant with its Principles for effective risk data aggregation and risk reporting (see FSM Report RISKMANAGEMENT7).

Daily112823.pdf…

13 11, 2023

DAILY111323

Eliza Allen2023-11-13T17:07:02-05:00November 13th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Banking GOP Demand End-Game Withdrawal, Holistic Review Release

Making still clearer their line of attack at tomorrow’s hearing, all GOP Members of the Senate Banking Committee today sent Chairs Powell, Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller Hsu another letter demanding the withdrawal of the capital proposals.

FRB-PHL: Fintech Spots Credit Risk Better than Banks

A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia finds not only that fintech loan-risk scoring performed well during the pandemic, but also that the proprietary loan rating systems of large fintech companies better predict default likelihood in the personal loan market compared to traditional measures of credit risk.

Barr Stands By His Proposals

Vice chairman Barr’s testimony for forthcoming hearings emphasizes that the banking system is resilient and sound, eschewing the caveats included in Friday’s supervisory report about pockets of weakness.

Gruenberg Defends DIF Rewrites

While echoing comments from Messrs. Barr and Hsu about the sound banking system, FDIC Chair Gruenberg’s testimony pointed to what he called significant downside risk from higher rates, geopolitical tension, unrealized losses, and other factors.

Hsu Differentiates OCC Supervision, Defends Regs

Acting Comptroller Hsu’s testimony reiterates Mr. Barr’s comment about a sound banking system, pointedly noting that all of the recent failures were state-chartered.

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6 11, 2023

DAILY110623

Eliza Allen2023-11-06T16:52:37-05:00November 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Finds Bank Vulnerabilities Worrisome, But Manageable

Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff today released their latest assessment of the U.S. banking system’s vulnerability, updating its methodology now to include unrealized losses – clearly a lesson the FRB-NY analysts learned the hard way earlier this year. Although some measures of systemic risk hovers around 2008 levels, the FRB-NY capital-stress model remains at historically low levels compared to 2008 stress. However, incorporating unrealized losses “the 2023 scenario” finds banks at “somewhat elevated” levels compared to historical norms.

Cook Points to Emerging Systemic Worries

FRB Gov. Lisa Cook today said that the U.S. financial system is considerably more robust than it was in the mid-2000s, basing her analysis on the Fed’s most recent financial-stability assessment (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC95). Much in her talk echoes the Fed’s report, with Gov. Cook noting she is particularly focused on NBFI leverage and, going beyond the Fed’s current thinking, also the systemic risk AI may pose.

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25 09, 2023

DAILY092523

Eliza Allen2023-09-25T16:05:07-04:00September 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

IMF Report: CBDC Designs Could Boost Financial Inclusion

On Friday, the IMF released a report concluding that a well-designed CBDC could foster financial inclusion and act as an entry point for the unbanked to the broader financial system. This will strengthen Democratic demands for a U.S. CBDC, but we expect GOP opposition to remain firm and the Fed’s posture to retain its current focus on wholesale CBDCs.

FRB-NY: Stablecoins, MMFs Have Same Dynamic Runs

An FRB New York study today concludes that stablecoin investors behaved similarly to MMF investors in numerous recent runs. Staff found that investors consider a stablecoin to have been effectively depegged once its price drops below $0.99 which triggers a run and mirrors the dynamics of MMFs “breaking the buck.”

Senate Dems Target SIFI Designation, Scenarios to Curb Climate Risk

Senator Warren (D-MA) along with Sens. Sanders (I-VT), Heinrich (D-NM), Markey (D-MA), Whitehouse (D-RI), and Merkley (D-OR) today released a letter dated last Wednesday to Treasury Secretary Yellen and Climate Counselor Zindler calling on the Department to significantly increase the urgency with which it targets climate-related financial risk.

Daily092523.pdf…

11 07, 2023

DAILY071123

Eliza Allen2023-07-11T16:38:06-04:00July 11th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Staff: Climate Tradition Risk Meaningful, Manageable

A new blog post from Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff concludes that climate-transition risk in bank loan portfolios is meaningful, but also manageable. The paper uses general-equilibrium models to focus on forward-looking climate risk in scenarios based on current policy as well as orderly and disorderly transitions, an approach it believes differ from much retrospective analysis of carbon emissions as a measure of transition risk.

CFPB, OCC Team Up To Sanction BofA Transaction, Card Account Practices

The CFPB and OCC today took action against Bank of America in ways that renew questions about potential overlaps between the CFPB’s jurisdiction and that of the banking agencies. The costlier of the two actions from the CFPB ordered the bank to pay over $170 million in civil monetary penalties and restitution for a range of practices the Bureau regards as abusive and deceptive (see FSM Report CONSUMER39).

GOP Urges Supreme Court to Uphold Fifth Circuit CFPB Decision

Continuing the GOP’s longstanding campaign to redesign the CFPB, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC), Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC), and 130 Members of Congress filed an amicus brief today urging the Supreme Court to uphold the Fifth Circuit’s decision declaring the CFPB’s funding mechanism unconstitutional.

Daily071123.pdf…

6 07, 2023

DAILY070623

Eliza Allen2023-07-06T16:55:22-04:00July 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Redesigns Global Bank-Supervision Construct

As promised at its last meeting, the Basel Committee today released a public consultation on revisions to its 2012 core supervisory principles (see FSM Report REFORM92).

Accommodative CRE Policy Goes Live

Publication in the Federal Register today makes effective a finalized policy statement issued by the banking agencies and NCUA late last week on how financial institutions are to handle troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loans.

Senate Dems Demand CFPB Voice-Cloning Action

Following his letter to large bank CEOs regarding AI fraud, Chairman Brown (D-OH) along with Sens. Menendez (D-NJ), Reed (D-RI), and Smith (D-MN) today sent a letter to Director Chopra urging action against AI-related financial scams.

FSB Turns to GSIB Resolvability

The FSB’s plenary today announced that recent events have spurred it to assess the resolvability of GSIBs and other large banks, providing neither timeline nor focus for this work.

FRB-NY Study Advances Wholesale Digital Currency

Although making clear that it sets no new policy nor endorses any CBDC action, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Center published a DLT proof-of-concept finding that shared ledgers can effectively support both wholesale domestic interbank and cross-border payments.

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5 06, 2023

DAILY060523

Eliza Allen2023-06-05T16:41:32-04:00June 5th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY: Bank Discrimination Not To Blame For More Black Fintech PPP Loans

A new paper from Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff concludes that differences in PPP applications between white and Black firms entirely explains why Black PPP borrowers received a greater share of loans from fintechs rather than banks. This issue has been a longstanding point of contentiousness used by fintech advocates to argue that their business model warrants less regulation on grounds that it is also less discriminatory. However, the paper’s results suggest that any fintech-driven mitigation of racial disparities in lending outcomes is the product of higher Black-borrower applications, not higher approval rates that would demonstrate less discrimination.

GOP Leadership Presses Treasury, SEC On US/EU Climate Coordination

Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) was joined today by House Oversight Committee Chairman Comer (R-KY) in sending letters to Treasury Secretary Yellen and SEC Chairman Gensler taking serious issue with reports that the Department and Commission have been facilitating EU regulators’ efforts to advance international climate-related disclosure policies and ESG initiatives. Although the letter references U.S. companies, Ranking Member Scott and Chairman Comer sharply criticize EU standards they say would cause serious business and financial system harm through “onerous extra-territorial climate mandates.”

Daily060523.pdf…

30 05, 2023

Daily053023

Eliza Allen2023-05-30T17:13:13-04:00May 30th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Fed Study Validates Bank/Shadow-Bank Interconnections, Systemic Risk

A new study by staff from the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and New York evaluates the banking-sector impact of fire sales across multiple NBFI segments, finding numerous bank vulnerabilities to nonbanks not only through direct exposures, but also through complex, indirect channels.

McHenry Protests U.S. Outbound-Investment Constraints

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) sent a letter to Secretary Yellen late Friday demanding information about a potential executive order that would enable CFIUS to prohibit or require notification of outbound investments into China, stating that the Administration’s interest in capital controls necessitates Congressional oversight.

IMF Article Calls SVB Resolution “Riskless Capitalism”

An article in the IMF’s forthcoming Finance and Development magazine issue argues that SVB’s uninsured depositors enjoyed “riskless capitalism,” concluding that high moral hazard-risks will persist without incentives for depositor due diligence.

FTC Demands Greater Debit-Card Data Access

The FTC today finalized a consent order requiring Mastercard to provide competing card networks with the customer account information necessary to process debit payments, alleging that the company illegally withheld that information to prevent merchants from using its competitors or Mastercard-branded debit cards saved in e-wallets outside of traditional networks.

Daily053023.pdf…

18 05, 2023

DAILY051823

Eliza Allen2023-05-18T16:51:22-04:00May 18th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY: SLR, Other Bank Stress Led to ONRRP Growth

A new post from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York summarizes a recent staff report analyzing the ONRRP’s explosive growth. As we have noted before, the study confirms that the combination of a revised SLR and strong deposit in flows in 2021 severely stressed bank balance-sheet capacity, leading large institutions to push deposits to sponsored MMFs. Indeed, bank-sponsored MMFs had larger inflows than independent MMFs at this time and banks with tighter capital ratios moved disproportionately more funds to their sponsored MMFs.

Reserve Banks Reconsider Liquidity-Backstop Standards, Set-Up

FRB-Dallas President Logan today reinforced findings in recent bank failures about the importance of advance planning for accessing FRB liquidity, urging banks to have legal documentation and collateral arrangements well in advance of possible stress. Presaging standards we expect shortly from the banking agencies, she also urged regular operational dry runs to ensure ready access to funding sources such as Home Loan Banks and Fed liquidity windows, noting that this would reduce discount-window stigma.

Daily051823.pdf…

12 05, 2023

DAILY051223

Eliza Allen2023-05-12T17:05:25-04:00May 12th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Bowman Blasts Barr

In another public sign of a growing FRB divide, Gov. Bowman early this morning followed Gov. Waller in taking strong issue with what would otherwise appear to be Board policy.

Fed Nominees Face Tough Confirmation Fight

In response to President Biden’s nomination of Philip Jefferson for Fed Vice Chair and Dr. Adriana Kugler and Lisa Cook to Fed Governor seats, Democrats have voiced strong support while Republicans are biding their time on nominations sure to prove controversial.

GOP Presses Broader FDIC, FRB Backstops

Picking up on the FDIC’s report (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE119), Republicans have introduced legislation to provide limited coverage for transaction accounts and address other issues raised by recent events.

FRB-NY: SVB, Signature are 1930s Redux

Following on its post yesterday regarding changing bank-funding sources, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York today argues that the concentrated, uninsured deposit bases at SVB and SBNY are directly comparable to those of small rural banks in the 1930s.

Daily051223.pdf…