#Gensler – Federal Financial Analytics

26 03, 2024

DAILY032624

Eliza Allen2024-03-26T16:39:52-04:00March 26th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

CBO Flags Long-Term Fiscal Risk to Financial Stability

CBO’s latest long-term fiscal forecast now includes a financial-stability warning absent from the Fed’s recent analysis (see Client Report SYSTEMIC97) and FSOC’s annual report (see Client Report FSOC29): the rising U.S. debt burden.

Chopra Expands CFPB Attack to Card Rewards

Undaunted by a CBA audience suing him on many actions, CFPB Director Chopra today gave a rousing defense of his agency’s credit-card late fee rule (see FSM Report CREDITCARD37), making clear he will vigorously defend it in the courts.

CFPB/FTC Press for More Tech-Finance Enforcement

Building on the Bureau’s recent efforts to limit AI use in comparison-shopping and other consumer-finance applications (see FSM Report CONSUMER56), the CFPB joined the FTC today in issuing a statement coordinating federal and state enforcement efforts against generative AI in particular and digital consumer-finance products more generally.

HFSC, AG Republicans Press SEC on Crypto-Custody Standards

HFSC Chair McHenry (R-NC) and House Ag Chair Thompson (R-PA), alongside 46 Republican members today sent a letter to SEC Chair Gensler calling for clarification the position on special purpose broker dealer’s (SPBD) ability to custody non-security digital assets, the agency’s willingness to address SPBD non-compliance, the regulatory classification of ETH, and the SEC’s position regarding Prometheum’s custody services announcement.

Daily032624.pdf…

13 02, 2024

DAILY021324

Eliza Allen2024-02-13T17:42:19-05:00February 13th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

Durbin Tries Another Approach to Advance Card-Fee Limits

After trying various ways to bring his credit-card fee bill to the floor, Senate Judiciary Committee Chair and Majority Leader Durbin (D-IL) has scheduled a hearing on this controversial bipartisan measure (see FSM Report INTERCHANGE10).

FinCEN Reaches SEC Agreement to Bring Investment Advisers Under AML/CFT Standards

As it has repeatedly promised, FinCEN today revised a 2015 proposal and issued a new one to subject investment advisers to AML and CFT requirements similar to, but still less restrictive than, those that have long governed banks.

HFSC Rallies to Crypto AML/CFT Defense

The HFSC staff memo on Thursday’s Digital-Assets Subcommittee hearing makes it clear that cryptoasset entities will be given a strong platform from which to resist calls in the Senate to subject cryptoasset transactions to AML and sanctions law.

Gensler Reinforces AI Concerns

In remarks today, SEC Chair Gensler acknowledged AI’s benefits in a manner consistent with the President’s executive order (see Client Report AI3), but then launched into a sharp critique of its risks in line with the agency’s pending rule in this arena.

Bowman Takes Fed Accountability, Transparency to Task

In an essay today, FRB Gov. Bowman emphasized that regulatory accountability does not undermine the independence also essential to a sound, innovative banking system.

Gensler Turns to Bank/Hedge-Fund Interconnection

In addition to his speech on AI earlier today, SEC Chair Gensler today engaged in a wide-ranging discussion of key financial policy questions.

Daily021324.pdf…

10 01, 2024

DAILY011024

Eliza Allen2024-01-10T17:00:41-05:00January 10th, 2024|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC’s HUD Hearing to Trod Partisan Ground

HFSC’s majority staff memo on Thursday’s hearing with HUD Secretary Fudge makes it still clearer that the session will focus on affordable housing, homelessness, and public-housing agencies in cities such as New York and Washington, D.C.

HFSC GOP Slams DOL Fiduciary Rule

At today’s HFSC Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on the DOL’s Fiduciary Rule, Subcommittee Chairwoman Wagner (R-MO) argued that the proposal should be withdrawn, calling it a partisan effort to eliminate “junk fees.”

HFSC Takes Partisan Approach to FSOC

At today’s HFSC Digital Assets Subcommittee hearing on FSOC’s systemic-designation framework (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC98), Subcommittee Chairman Hill (R-AR) questioned FSOC’s approach to addressing systemic risk, claiming that the Council’s revised guidance is vulnerable to abuse and unintended consequences.

CFPB Small-Business Reg Survives

Senate Republicans tried today to override the President’s veto of the Congressional Review Act resolution approved by both Houses of Congress to repeal the CFPB’s small-business reporting rule.

Daily011024.pdf…

18 12, 2023

FSOC29

Eliza Allen2023-12-18T11:36:07-05:00December 18th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: FSOC Worries A Lot, Watches, Waits

This year’s FSOC report trods much old ground with two exceptions. The first pertains to a new focus on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and new, generative technologies. That said, the report does little beyond highlight this risk and include it among all the others federal agencies are told to monitor. Private credit now also alarms FSOC, with insurance company investment in this sector of particular systemic concern in concert with the sectors’ CRE and junk-bond exposures, offshore reinsurance, and PE ownership. As detailed in this report, banks are found to be resilient and have ample capital even as the report supports consideration of pending regulatory revisions. Banking agencies are also asked to monitor uninsured-deposit levels and assess run-risk in light of social media and other accelerants. In sharp contrast to more alarmist statements in the past and extensive Treasury reports (see Client Report CRYPTO32), this year’s report downplays cryptoasset risk because federal regulators are said to have taken steps to contain it. The report also reiterates FSOC’s continuing focus on cyber and climate risk, with the closed session preceding the meeting considering a framework being developed by the OCC to measure and monitor financial risks and bank exposures. Agencies are also encouraged to pursue comparable, “decision-useful” climate disclosures. The LIBOR transition is considered a success and no longer poses a systemic risk.

FSOC29.pdf…

6 11, 2023

DAILY110623

Eliza Allen2023-11-06T16:52:37-05:00November 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-NY Finds Bank Vulnerabilities Worrisome, But Manageable

Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff today released their latest assessment of the U.S. banking system’s vulnerability, updating its methodology now to include unrealized losses – clearly a lesson the FRB-NY analysts learned the hard way earlier this year. Although some measures of systemic risk hovers around 2008 levels, the FRB-NY capital-stress model remains at historically low levels compared to 2008 stress. However, incorporating unrealized losses “the 2023 scenario” finds banks at “somewhat elevated” levels compared to historical norms.

Cook Points to Emerging Systemic Worries

FRB Gov. Lisa Cook today said that the U.S. financial system is considerably more robust than it was in the mid-2000s, basing her analysis on the Fed’s most recent financial-stability assessment (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC95). Much in her talk echoes the Fed’s report, with Gov. Cook noting she is particularly focused on NBFI leverage and, going beyond the Fed’s current thinking, also the systemic risk AI may pose.

Daily110623.pdf…

3 11, 2023

DAILY110323

Eliza Allen2023-11-03T17:39:35-04:00November 3rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FSOC Advances Designation Framework, Ready to Deploy

The FSOC today voted unanimously to finalize the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification (see FSM Report SYSTEMIC95) and guidance on nonbank financial company systemic designations (see FSM Report SIFI35). FedFin will soon provide clients with in-depth reports on each item. In addition to minor clarifications to the analytic framework, the Council importantly decided not to add cost-benefit analysis. Further, the final nonbank designation guidance is unchanged from the proposal, meaning that designation standards will not require a determination of imminent threat to financial stability.

Daily110323.pdf…

31 10, 2023

FedFin Assessment: New White House AI Policy Promises New KYC Requirements, Banking-Agency Guidance

Arezou Rafikian2023-10-31T13:33:25-04:00October 31st, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we assess the detailed executive order (EO) issued late Monday afternoon after days of private showings of selected versions. Much in the EO’s binding provisions address near-term AI-related threats to national-security, pandemic-risk, and infrastructure vulnerabilities and much related to AI-related opportunities derive from internal procedures Mr. Biden urges the federal government to develop along with workforce protections and biomedical research. The EO also reiterates the Administration’s values and presses agencies to work still harder on voluntary industry standards that many have been drafting or disagreeing on since the White House and Congress first called attention to AI risk. What comes of these provisions in the EO remains to be seen, but the Administration has also used tools such as the Defense Production Act’s authorization for direct economic intervention to mandate an array of new AI commercial and technology safeguards.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

31 10, 2023

AI3

Eliza Allen2023-10-31T10:58:11-04:00October 31st, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: New White House AI Policy Promises New KYC Requirements, Banking-Agency Guidance

In this report, we assess the detailed executive order (EO) issued late Monday afternoon after days of private showings of selected versions. Much in the EO’s binding provisions address near-term AI-related threats to national-security, pandemic-risk, and infrastructure vulnerabilities and much related to AI-related opportunities derive from internal procedures Mr. Biden urges the federal government to develop along with workforce protections and biomedical research. The EO also reiterates the Administration’s values and presses agencies to work still harder on voluntary industry standards that many have been drafting or disagreeing on since the White House and Congress first called attention to AI risk. What comes of these provisions in the EO remains to be seen, but the Administration has also used tools such as the Defense Production Act’s authorization for direct economic intervention to mandate an array of new AI commercial and technology safeguards.

AI3.pdf…

27 09, 2023

DAILY092723

Eliza Allen2023-09-27T16:36:21-04:00September 27th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FinCEN Bows to BOI Pressure

Responding to bipartisan concerns, FinCEN today issued an NPR to extend the beneficial ownership information (BOI) report filing deadline from thirty to ninety days for companies created or registered in 2024.

Chopra Considering Refi, Point Rules

The CFPB today released its annual report on residential mortgage lending, finding that mortgage applications, originations, and affordability declined significantly in 2022 while costs, loan denials, HELOC originations, and the percentage of cash-out refinances all increased.

HFSC GOP Presses Gensler on Banking-Reg Cumulative Impact

During Chairman Gensler’s as-always contentious HFSC hearing today, Rep. Barr (R-KY) asked if the SEC is in consultation with the Federal Reserve regarding the combined CRE effects of recent SEC proposals and the Basel III endgame standards (see Client Report CAPITAL234).

Carstens Says Law Must Catch Up To CBDC

BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens today emphatically called for rapid development of clear CBDC legal frameworks based on defined rights and obligations for privacy, AML compliance, and user choice.

Daily092723.pdf…

20 09, 2023

DAILY092023

Eliza Allen2023-09-20T17:11:25-04:00September 20th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Brown, Rounds Agree: AI Credit-Underwriting Warrants Regulatory Attention

At today’s Senate Banking hearing on AI in financial services, Chairman Brown (D-OH) argued that AI should be governed by the same rules as the rest of the financial system, with new law necessary if existing rules prove inadequate.

HFSC FinCEN Bills Draw Bipartisan Support

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) at today’s markup praised the scope of bipartisan support on today’s FinCEN, sanctions, and other national security bills.

HFSC Delays Bipartisan Sanction Bill Vote

Today’s HFSC markup also considered two bills addressing sanctions policy: H.R. 5512 from Rep. Sherman (D-CA) to require bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions on Russia and Belarus and H.R. 760 from Rep. Barr (R-KY) imposing blocking sanctions on Chinese defense or surveillance companies and the third-party companies that supply them.

HFSC Dems Continue Strongly Opposing GOP Anti-CBDC Measure

The bipartisan spirit of today’s HFSC markup dissipated as Members fiercely debated H.R. 5403 from Majority Whip Emmer (R-MN), a bill that would bar the Fed from issuing a CBDC to individuals.

Gruenberg: New Shadow Bank Standards Would Cure a Capital Proposal Problem

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg today gave remarks arguing that FSOC along with OFR should establish a new reporting framework to assess the financial stability risks posed by nonbanks and ensure that public reporting is sufficient for market participants to understand nonbank counterparty risk.

HFSC Reports FinCEN, Sanctions, CBDC Bills

HFSC today unanimously reported H.R 760 sanctioning Chinese defense companies, H.R. 5512 requiring bank subsidiaries to comply with sanctions …