#GSE

24 02, 2025

Karen Petrou: How the White House Could Have Fun with the Fed

2025-02-24T09:11:47-05:00February 24th, 2025|The Vault|

President Trump has an awesome ability to keep even his closest allies perplexed by nonstop announcements that often break precedent, accepted norms, and even the law.  Just as opponents begin to rally against one initiative, the White House launches another, sending dissenters off in a different direction, leaving the actions they initially targeted unchanged or even forgotten. Still, several policy themes are coming through loud and clear through all these different actions that have far-reaching financial-market cumulative impact.  One is the sheer volatility all this chaos creates; another to which I turn here is the President’s sure and certain effort to make the Federal Reserve a tool of the executive branch, going beyond setting interest rates to turn it into America’s sovereign wealth fund.

As we noted, The President’s executive-order barrage includes one demanding a U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF).  The tricky bit here is not the lines that would quickly blur between public and private enterprise, an historic U.S. economic principle that won’t slow Mr. Trump down for a minute.  Instead, it’s where the money funding the SWF comes from given the lack of a nationalized commodities enterprise such as Norway’s and the Administration’s hell-bent campaign to reduce the federal deficit.  Solution?  The Fed.

U.S. law is seemingly an obstacle to deploying the Fed as an SWF since it allows the Fed to hold only direct obligations of the U.S. Treasury and its agencies as well as – a Fed sleight of hand in the 2008 crisis – Fannie …

21 01, 2025

FedFin on: Elimination of the Mortgage Payment Tax Deduction

2025-01-21T13:59:19-05:00January 21st, 2025|The Vault|

The long list of budget options for reconciliation released by House Budget includes two with direct GSE impact as well as one – elimination of the mortgage-payment tax deduction – that would pack a major punch across the sector and is sure to be as vigorously opposed as usual.  The list thus also includes a less painful and less deficit-beneficial reduction in the principal amount eligible for payment deductions from $750,000 to $500,000….

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21 01, 2025

Karen Petrou: Will There Also be a Financial Firestorm?

2025-01-21T13:57:41-05:00January 21st, 2025|The Vault|

I live two short blocks from Rock Creek National Park, one of D.C.’s hidden wonders.  As befits a national park, Rock Creek is very large and densely wooded, but no one has thought much about fire hazard until last summer’s drought led to some significant brush fires.  I thus asked a forestry professor next to whom I happened to be seated waiting for a plane if those of us living near Rock Creek Park should worry.  Instantly and unequivocally, his answer was emphatically, “Yes.”  I’m still not sure what I or any of us now at risks we never contemplated can do, but I’m even less sure that what can clearly be done to reduce financial-system risk due to natural disasters will be done until after it’s too late.

Is risk really this frightening?  A report last week from the Financial Stability Board lays out what it believes to be plausible, yet-severe scenarios demonstrating that the extent to which property insurers and reinsurers are able to absorb natural-disaster risk determines whether a disaster leads to systemic financial risk.  In the U.S., this is a thin reed.

We know that the National Flood Insurance Program is woefully unable to address the scale of recent hurricanes and inundations.  A treasury study last Friday shows that private insurance is in at least as much disarray.  Homeowners in the highest climate-risk zip codes pay premiums about eighty percent higher than those in the lowest-risk codes and have far, far higher non-renewal rates.  Fifteen of …

16 12, 2024

FedFin on: A Half-Empty Privatization Glass

2024-12-17T17:52:59-05:00December 16th, 2024|The Vault|

Markets are getting very excited by ongoing Trump transition rhetoric about GSE privatization and a Friday CBO study refining its 2020 scenarios to conclude that release-and-recapitalization could proceed more quickly and prove less costly than four years ago suggested.  That said, CBO remains cautious about what would happen if recap/release actually began, standing by its earlier, conservative view of budgetary implications and systemic impact.  One little-noticed conclusion of note for those favoring privatization for free-market reasons:  if privatized GSEs can’t sustain GSE volume, CBO concludes (we think rightly) that …

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10 09, 2024

FedFin on: The New Mortgage Capital Rules

2024-09-10T16:43:48-04:00September 10th, 2024|The Vault|

As anticipated as recently as yesterday, the next round of U.S. end-game capital proposals will include a significant win for bankers when it comes to residential mortgage origination. Where it comes out on other key mortgage topics is, though, yet to be revealed….

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

2 07, 2024

FedFin: Taking Trump Still More Seriously

2024-07-02T16:24:40-04:00July 2nd, 2024|The Vault|

In the wake of last week’s debate, clients have asked that we advise about what a second Trump term might mean for U.S. mortgage finance.  We reviewed our forecast at the start of this year on exactly this point.  Much of it remains as before, but there are several areas where an update is warranted due to recent Trump fiscal- and monetary-policy trial balloons.  Our updated, complete forecast follows….

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13 05, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why FSOC is Right to Revisit FMU Designation

2024-05-13T09:25:12-04:00May 13th, 2024|The Vault|

In the fog in which FSOC chooses to nestle, it was easy to miss an important indication briefly mentioned in the meeting’s readout:  the Council is “reviewing” current financial-market utility (FMU) designations.  Firm-specific and activity-and-practice designations usually get all the airtime.  So it was again on Friday, when FSOC also decided to back off its plan just last November (see Client Report FSOC29) to designate nonbank mortgage banking.  The Council in fact mostly backs off much of what it promises – no wonder Rohit Chopra calls it a “book-report club.”  Precedent thus suggests the FMU threat is idle, but I’ll bet it’s not.

Why?  The FMUs the Council is reviewing were made in 2012 very shortly after Dodd-Frank was enacted in 2010 and told it to do so.  FMUs are to supplement firm designation because one clear lesson of the 2008 crisis is that market infrastructure matters at least as much as very big banks and a nonbank or two.  FMU designations are thus designed to ensure proper functioning of the “clearing and settlement of payment, securities, and other financial transactions” (see FSM Report PAYMENT11). Designated payment companies are subject to Federal Reserve systemic supervision and securities and derivatives entities fall under either the SEC or CFTC.  Unlike the Council’s extremely-controversial designation at about the same time of four systemically-important financial institutions, the FMU designations then and ever since have drawn little scrutiny and no political dispute.  Indeed, when Donald Trump’s Treasury led a 2019 rewrite of the …

31 01, 2024

FedFin on: Steady As They Go Scores

2024-01-31T11:13:57-05:00January 31st, 2024|The Vault|

We have reviewed the 2024 scorecards FHFA released for Fannie and Freddie.  Unlike prior years, it contains no new initiatives or aspirations, largely holding Fannie and Freddie to account for much of what they’ve been asked to do before.  Fannie is given indirect encouragement to continue its title-insurance plans, but that’s only if it comports with added cost-efficiency under several longstanding FHFA goals….

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30 11, 2023

FedFin on: FHA’s Mission and Mishaps

2023-11-30T14:04:44-05:00November 30th, 2023|The Vault|

A new FRB-NY study confirms that 83% of loans from 2000-2022 went to first-time homebuyers, compared to 56% for the GSEs and 57% for private lenders. FHA loans of course have very high LTVs and low scores, with scores improving after 2008 when the PLS market stopped adversely selected FHA even though over half of FHA loans still have scores under 680. FHA sustainability has varied based on these and other factors, but 21.8% of borrowers from 2011-2016 still lost their homes.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

8 08, 2023

FedFin on: Say It’s Simple

2023-08-09T14:19:41-04:00August 8th, 2023|The Vault|

Our most recent analysis of the inter-agency capital proposal focuses on significant changes to the rules for securitization and credit-risk transfer positions. In short, super-traditional securitizations have an easier path to the secondary market, but GSEs still beat banks. Complex ABS face often-formidable obstacles, as does CRT given or taken by banks.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

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