#Powell

17 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T16:50:38-04:00March 17th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

8 03, 2023

FedFin: Red Light For Retail CBDC

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-08T17:02:10-05:00March 8th, 2023|The Vault|

At today’s HFSC hearing, Chairman Powell modulated his hawkish stance just a bit, continuing as he long has done to refuse to take a stand on fiscal policy while advocating for rapid debt-limit action. Pressed by Republicans for CBDC updates, the chairman today was the most specific of any Fed official to date, stating that a retail CBDC would require express Congressional authorization even though this may not be the case for a wholesale-focused instrument. As yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72), Republicans pushed hard against the Vice Chairman’s holistic-capital review, leading Mr. Powell to say that he hopes for Board consensus on both end-game rules and broader rewrites but cannot assure this will be the case despite the Board’s consensus culture….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

29 08, 2022

Karen Petrou: Why Failing to Focus on Economic Equality Flummoxes Fed Policy

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-04T10:22:48-05:00August 29th, 2022|The Vault|

August doldrums always seem to power up spirals of will-he or won’t-he speculation about the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting because there usually isn’t all that much else to talk about economically-speaking. This year is different because this year has revealed the Fed as a central bank without a compass at a time of extraordinarily strong winds towards the rocks. Still, in all the punditry over whether the Fed can somehow maneuver to Jay Powell’s “softish landing,” there’s one missing, critical factor: inequality and what the Fed must do about it or, if it won’t, what we must do about the Fed.

The Fed is fond of blaming fiscal policy for economic inequality, but U.S. fiscal policy has been awesomely stimulative since the pandemic struck and the U.S. has still grown ever more unequal in terms of both income and wealth. This is because ultra-accommodative monetary policy stokes inequality and, at the scale practiced by the Federal Reserve, towers over even trillions of fiscal stimulus. As a result, the U.S. didn’t get the Fed’s promise of “robust growth” accompanied by only a bit of “transitory” inflation. Of course, we instead got a crushing combination of high-flying inflation that will leave long-lasting scars on vulnerable households even if it meaningfully abates as some now hope.

The Fed thinks itself aloof from any inequality accountability because it cloaks itself in the mantle of “maximum employment” as armor against any inequality-effect assertions. It was in fact this focus solely on employment …

22 06, 2022

FedFin: Fed Comes Under Heightened Political Pressure

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-25T15:58:37-05:00June 22nd, 2022|The Vault|

As we expected, today’s Senate Banking session with Chairman Powell is a preview of broader national debate ahead of the midterm election. Democrats generally sought to emphasize their understanding of inflation’s costs without lambasting the Fed and, indirectly, the Biden Administration. Still, Sens. Ossoff (D-GA) and Warnock (D-GA) pressed Mr. Powell on the Fed’s failure to begin to tighten last summer. Republicans were strongly united in lambasting….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

6 06, 2022

Karen Petrou: The Fed’s Political Peril

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-10T15:55:54-05:00June 6th, 2022|The Vault|

Last Wednesday, the American Banker quoted me on the politics behind President Biden’s contradictory campaign to demand inflation-stifling policies while at the same time championing Fed independence. The article quoted me accurately, but as I read it, the brevity of my comments made them seem unduly pointed. As in Renaissance Florence, modern-day Washington is awash with nuance. To understand what President Biden meant, one has to watch for the equivalent of a carefully-arched eyebrow or a seemingly-offhand remark. Those I see and hear say that the White House will not hesitate to turn the Fed into the fall guy for inflation and then defenestrate it in political self-defense.

This isn’t to say that President Biden wants to sacrifice the central bank on the midterm’s altar. Despite entreaties of his more bloody-minded political aides, the President has so far heeded Secretary Yellen and given Jay Powell the equivalent of a royal pass. Still, the carefully calibrated comments last week show that this pass is increasingly conditional.

It’s not hard to understand why those frightened of a return to what Martin Wolf last week called a U.S. autocracy are willing to push the Fed in front of the firing line. I am less and less alone in thinking that Democrats in 2016 lost it all because they trusted conventional economic thinking far too much. Still, the Biden Administration has so far made the same mistake.

Starting in 2015, the Fed said that the American economy was a “good place.” President Obama took …

16 05, 2022

Karen Petrou: When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-21T15:11:51-05:00May 16th, 2022|The Vault|

On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa. Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled. The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it. What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look. What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20^th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.

One might discount my prediction of a political reckoning for the Fed by pointing to President Biden’s stout defense of his central bank last week when he tried to show the nation how much he was doing to quell inflation. But a careful read of Mr. Biden’s statements shows a focus more on the Fed’s independence than on its skill. So far, Secretary Yellen has persuaded White House …

9 03, 2022

FedFin Analysis: Payment-System Access

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T10:54:03-04:00March 9th, 2022|The Vault|

Following considerable controversy surrounding how Federal Reserve Banks grant master accounts, the FRB has proposed a somewhat more explicit set of guidelines than provided in its initial notice seeking views on expanding payment-system access. The first proposal laid out the Fed’s policy goals for granting access but said only that insured depositories would get the most straightforward review and other institutions would be subject to more detailed scrutiny. The Fed has now reissued that proposal and differentiated applicants into three classes, getting the lightest to the strictest review…..

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

15 02, 2022

FedFin: Stablecoin Legislative Consensus in Sight, But from a Distance

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T15:59:02-04:00February 15th, 2022|The Vault|

Despite fierce partisan fighting over pending Fed nominations, today’s Senate Banking hearing on stablecoin regulation was considerably more bipartisan that last week’s HFSC session (see Client Report CRYPTO24). Both Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) are in broad agreement on a two-tier structure in which stablecoins are issued either by banks or by nonbanks subject to strict reserve-asset, AML, and related regulation.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here…

14 02, 2022

Karen Petrou: Two Regulatory Decisions That Will Define the Future of Money

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T16:07:43-04:00February 14th, 2022|The Vault|

Like all of you, we at FedFin spend a lot of time watching the U.S. Congress, but I’m increasingly wondering why. Sure, there’s the blood and guts. Watching Congressional deliberations is more and more like being a spectator at a hockey game for the fights or NASCAR races for the next fiery crash. Does any of this carnage really matter? Not much when it comes to vital, urgent financial policy questions such as what money has come to be in the United States. With Congress mired in a never-ending cock fight, regulators hold the fate of finance mostly in their own fierce grip. Even without deployment of the Fed’s nuclear CBDC option, two developments last week show clearly how much power regulators have to redefine U.S. digital currency.

First, there was outgoing FDIC Chair McWilliams’ offhand suggestion in her final remarks that stablecoins have all the characteristics of fiat currency deposits and thus could be eligible for FDIC insurance under current law. As soon as he took the helm, Acting FDIC Chairman Gruenberg demanded tough cryptocurrency regulation, but he didn’t rule out deposit status for at least some stablecoins if the agency was satisfied with their stability.

The impact of an FDIC decision deeming at least some stablecoins to be deposits is hard to over-estimate. As I detail in my book, what’s actually in a bank deposit isn’t what most people think they hold, i.e., a virtual pile of dollars. In fact, money in the bank is …

14 02, 2022

Karen Petrou: Two Regulatory Decisions That Will Define the Future of Money

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T16:07:34-04:00February 14th, 2022|The Vault|

Like all of you, we at FedFin spend a lot of time watching the U.S. Congress, but I’m increasingly wondering why. Sure, there’s the blood and guts. Watching Congressional deliberations is more and more like being a spectator at a hockey game for the fights or NASCAR races for the next fiery crash. Does any of this carnage really matter? Not much when it comes to vital, urgent financial policy questions such as what money has come to be in the United States. With Congress mired in a never-ending cock fight, regulators hold the fate of finance mostly in their own fierce grip. Even without deployment of the Fed’s nuclear CBDC option, two developments last week show clearly how much power regulators have to redefine U.S. digital currency.

First, there was outgoing FDIC Chair McWilliams’ offhand suggestion in her final remarks that stablecoins have all the characteristics of fiat currency deposits and thus could be eligible for FDIC insurance under current law. As soon as he took the helm, Acting FDIC Chairman Gruenberg demanded tough cryptocurrency regulation, but he didn’t rule out deposit status for at least some stablecoins if the agency was satisfied with their stability.

The impact of an FDIC decision deeming at least some stablecoins to be deposits is hard to over-estimate. As I detail in my book, what’s actually in a bank deposit isn’t what most people think they hold, i.e., a virtual pile of dollars. In fact, money in the bank is …