#Powell – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

28 07, 2023

Al073123

Eliza Allen2023-07-28T17:05:25-04:00July 28th, 2023|3- This Week|

Few Surprises, Much Consternation

There is little in the new capital framework we did not forecast for new capital rules after the March bank failures (see Client Report REFORM219) and what we missed was later presaged in Vice Chair Barr’s recent speech (see Client Report CAPITAL228). However, as we’ve also said many times, many devils lurk in regulatory-capital details. We know the agencies’ capital-impact bottom line because the FDIC and Fed each outlined this at contentious meetings approving the proposal for public comment. We also know that Republicans really don’t like the rule even if they haven’t read it and that key decision-makers – most notably Chair Powell – are hedging their affirmative votes for releasing the proposal with careful caveats of what they want to see in a final rule. Thus, careful analytics are essential to effective assessments of winners and losers as a result of this complex package, especially if one looks – as FedFin will – at big-picture implications – i.e., those for the economy, financial system, and economic equality – as well as at sector- and institution-specific provisions not just in key asset classes based on specific risk weightings.

Al073123.pdf…

27 07, 2023

DAILY072723

Eliza Allen2023-07-27T17:47:02-04:00July 27th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FSB Tries to Calm CoCo Confusion

Doubtless responding to the CoCo chaos when Credit Suisse failed, the FSB today issued a report laying out how cross-border crisis-management groups are to handle unallocated TLAC (UTLAC) such as the “alternative Tier 1” bonds popular in the EU.

FDIC 3-2 Vote Presages Knock-Down Basel Battle

As anticipated, the FDIC today voted 3-2 to issue a sweeping rewrite of U.S. regulatory capital requirements.

Divided, Cautious Fed Advances End-Game, GSIB Rewrites

As anticipated, Gov. Bowman today voted against the new capital framework, as did Gov. Waller; as a result, the vote was 4-2.

Stablecoin Bill Advances, Compromises to Come

At a fiery HFSC markup today, Chairman McHenry (R-NC) announced that bipartisan negotiations had broken down largely due to the White House, choosing to proceed to a final package as he remains open to amendment before floor action.

House Republicans Skewer Basel Rules

Hill comment so far in response to the new capital rules is sparse.

Daily072723.pdf…

26 07, 2023

DAILY072623

Eliza Allen2023-07-26T16:37:20-04:00July 26th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Democrats Stand Firm On “Junk Fee” Campaign

Today’s lightly-attended Senate Banking Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on banking and consumer fees showcased broad Democratic alignment with the Administration’s “junk fees” campaign and persistent Republican aversion to this effort as well as to the CFPB.

CFPB Flags UDAAP, Other Problematic Practices for Enforcement

The CFPB’s latest supervisory report not only details recent actions and priorities, but also expressly stipulates that certain activities identified in the course of supervision that have yet to be addressed by formal agency action are UDAAP.

SEC Targets AI Advice

Acting as anticipated following Gary Gensler’s fiery talk last week about AI risk, the SEC today voted 3-2 to propose new rules curtailing what it believes to be broker dealer and investment-adviser conflicts of interest due to predictive analytics.

Crypto-Jurisdiction Bill to Advance; Stablecoin Measure Likely to do so Tomorrow

Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) announced at today’s HFSC markup that bipartisan negotiations on the committee’s stablecoin bill continue and despite the absence of any breakthrough.

DOJ Officials Seeks Merger Answers

In remarks today, Policy Director David Lawrence of DOJ’s Antitrust Division went beyond new, draft DOJ/FTC merger guidelines (see FSM Report MERGER12) to lay out questions on which the agencies particularly seek answers.

Powell Stresses Bank Discount Window Readiness

FRB Chairman Powell’s press conference today focused almost entirely on monetary policy, but the chair agreed that the discount window performed badly during the recent crisis and that banks need to …

25 07, 2023

DAILY072523

Eliza Allen2023-07-25T17:18:26-04:00July 25th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Key Democrat Takes On Fed Rate Hikes

Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, Joint Economic Committee Chair Heinrich (D-NV) yesterday sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell cautioning against additional policy tightening.

Second HFSC Markup Targets Stablecoins, Regulatory Restrictions, ESG

Thursday’s HFSC has now added another day to its mark-up calendar this week, moving the stablecoin and ESG bills to Thursday doubtless in order to avoid an endurance contest before the August recess and still meet Chairman McHenry’s (R-NC) commitments.

Senate GOP Tries to Block Capital Rewrite

Just days before the banking agencies take up new capital rules, Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) and ten other committee Republicans sent a letter to Chairman Powell demanding greater transparency and prior consultation.

Waters Presses FHFA for FHLB Reform

Following FHFA listening sessions and in anticipation of a final report this September on the FHLB system, HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) late yesterday sent a letter to FHFA Director Thompson laying out a series of recommendations to significantly reform the system.

Ag Committees Slam SEC Custody Proposal

In a letter to SEC Chairman Gensler released today, Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Boozman (R-AR) and Chairwoman Stabenow (D-MI) along with House Ag. Committee Chairman Thompson (R-PA) and Ranking Member Scott (D-GA) raised strong objections to what they called serious flaws in the SEC’s proposed custody rule (see FSM Report CUSTODY5).

Warren, Scott Renew Fed-Ethics Campaign

Continuing their bipartisan campaign against the Fed, Sens. Warren (D-MA) and Scott (R-FL) yesterday sent a letter…

10 07, 2023

DAILY071023

Eliza Allen2023-07-10T16:43:24-04:00July 10th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC Lays Out Its ESG Priorities

The majority staff memo ahead of Wednesday’s HFSC hearing on ESG follows the outline anticipated last week and that laid out in the GOP agenda for ESG-related action (see Client Report ESG4).

OCC Concurs On Capital, Tries For The Merger Middle

Acting Comptroller Hsu today confirmed our assessment of Vice Chair Barr’s comments earlier today (see Client Report CAPITAL228) that the three banking agencies are aligned on the new capital construct to be shortly released for public comment.

Barr, Foster Demand Delay to Capital Rewrite

Anticipating Vice Chair Barr’s remarks this morning detailing near-term capital policy changes (see Client Report CAPITAL228), HFSC Financial Institutions Subcommittee Chair Barr (R-KY) and Ranking Member Foster (D-IL) sent a letter late Friday demanding that he appear before the Subcommittee to present the conclusions of his capital review and upcoming Basel III implementation plans prior to public release, asking also for details and likely outcomes for industry consolidation.

House Republicans Keep Spotlight On FRB-SF

Continuing the GOP’s attack on the San Francisco Fed’s supervision of SVB in the wake of what many believe are “woke” priorities, House Oversight Committee Chairman Comer (R-KY) was joined today by Financial Services Subcommittee Chairwoman McClain (R-MI) in sending a letter to FRB Chairman Powell taking serious issue with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Fed for what they describe as SVB-related transparency and communication failures.

BIS Survey: Most Central Banks Considering CBDCs

The BIS …

6 07, 2023

DAILY070623

Eliza Allen2023-07-06T16:55:22-04:00July 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Basel Redesigns Global Bank-Supervision Construct

As promised at its last meeting, the Basel Committee today released a public consultation on revisions to its 2012 core supervisory principles (see FSM Report REFORM92).

Accommodative CRE Policy Goes Live

Publication in the Federal Register today makes effective a finalized policy statement issued by the banking agencies and NCUA late last week on how financial institutions are to handle troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loans.

Senate Dems Demand CFPB Voice-Cloning Action

Following his letter to large bank CEOs regarding AI fraud, Chairman Brown (D-OH) along with Sens. Menendez (D-NJ), Reed (D-RI), and Smith (D-MN) today sent a letter to Director Chopra urging action against AI-related financial scams.

FSB Turns to GSIB Resolvability

The FSB’s plenary today announced that recent events have spurred it to assess the resolvability of GSIBs and other large banks, providing neither timeline nor focus for this work.

FRB-NY Study Advances Wholesale Digital Currency

Although making clear that it sets no new policy nor endorses any CBDC action, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Center published a DLT proof-of-concept finding that shared ledgers can effectively support both wholesale domestic interbank and cross-border payments.

Daily070623.pdf…

3 07, 2023

M070323

Eliza Allen2023-07-03T12:09:08-04:00July 3rd, 2023|6- Client Memo|

The Unintended Consequence Of Capital Hikes Isn’t Less Credit, It’s More Risk

As was evident throughout Chairman Powell’s most recent appearances before HFSC and Senate Banking, conflict between capital and credit availability characterizes what is to come of the “end-game” capital rules set for imminent release. The trade-off is said to be between safer banks and a sound economy, but this is far too simple. As we’ve seen over and over again as capital rules rise, credit availability stays the same or even increases. What changes is who makes the loans and what happens to borrowers and the broader macro framework, which in the past has been irrevocably altered. The real trade-off is thus between lending from banks and the stable financial intermediation this generally ensures and lending from nonbanks and the risks this raises not just to financial stability, but also to economic equality.

M070323.pdf…

3 07, 2023

Karen Petrou: The Unintended Consequence Of Capital Hikes Isn’t Less Credit, It’s More Risk

Eliza Allen2023-07-03T12:08:54-04:00July 3rd, 2023|The Vault|

As was evident throughout Chairman Powell’s most recent appearances before HFSC and Senate Banking, conflict between capital and credit availability characterizes what is to come of the “end-game” capital rules set for imminent release. The trade-off is said to be between safer banks and a sound economy, but this is far too simple. As we’ve seen over and over again as capital rules rise, credit availability stays the same or even increases. What changes is who makes the loans and what happens to borrowers and the broader macro framework, which in the past has been irrevocably altered. The real trade-off is thus between lending from banks and the stable financial intermediation this generally ensures and lending from nonbanks and the risks this raises not just to financial stability, but also to economic equality.

As post-2008 history makes clear, banks do not stop lending when capital requirements go up; they stop taking certain balance-sheet risks based on how the sum total of often-conflicting risk-based, leverage, and stress-test rules drives their numbers. That all these rules push and pull banks in often-different directions is at long last known to the Fed based on Vice Chair Barr’s call for a “holistic review”. Whether it plans to do anything about them and their adverse impact on the future of regulated financial intermediation remains to be seen. Until something is done, banks will look across the spectrum of capital rules, spot the highest requirement, and then figure out how best to remain profitable …

29 06, 2023

DAILY062923

Eliza Allen2023-06-29T17:22:46-04:00June 29th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Powell Stands by Big-Bank Reg Rewrite

In remarks today, Chair Powell echoed Vice Chair Barr’s “humble” comments yesterday about the need to anticipate additional risks despite banking-system resilience, noting that rules and supervision require review. Building on the Fed’s internal SVB review (see Client Report REFORM218), Mr. Powell suggested that the Fed had succumbed to the “natural tendency” to fight the last war and needs now to update its standards to address new risks.

FTC Finalizes Tough New Guidance On Deceptive Reviews And Endorsements

The FTC today finalized an updated version of its Endorsement Guides, setting new standards for the advertising and endorsement behavior that may constitute unfair or deceptive practices. These include implementation of a Consumer Review Fairness Act ban on standardized contract provisions penalizing consumers for negative reviews, a practice the CFPB last year called “gag” clauses that are banned under this law.

Banking Agencies Encourage Banks To Go Easy On CRE Borrowers

The banking agencies and NCUA today finalized changes to troubled-loan standards in a policy statement that is substantially similar to last year’s proposal.

Daily062923.pdf…

23 06, 2023