30-10 or Bust
With smaller lenders today joining MBA, NAR, and HomeBuilders’ campaign to squeeze the 30-10 spread, we take a look at the odds the White House, Fed, or Treasury will do as hoped. We think it more than possible that the PSPA could be revised with FHFA consent to allow the GSEs to hold more of their own MBS as a spread stabilizer; whether the GSEs will do so unless forced is another question given the considerable capital cost this would exert.
GOP’s Crypto Bills Still Face Significant Partisan Problems
HFSC is now set for a Wednesday mark-up of two controversial crypto bills, one with shared jurisdiction with the Agriculture Committee governing regulatory jurisdiction and the other setting federal standards for payment stablecoins.
Senior GOP Senator Proposes Sweeping FRB Reform
Going beyond bipartisan legislation with Sen. Warren (D-MA) to redesign Fed governance to increase political accountability, Sen. Scott (R-FL) on his own has introduced a legislative package that would sharply contract the Fed’s monetary-policy and emergency-liquidity authority.
Clawback Bill Faces Tuberville Blockade
Reinforcing his stand against the executive-compensation clawback bill reported 21-2 by Senate Banking (see FSM Report COMPENSATION37), Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) today posted an op-ed laying out his reasoning.
Waller Throws Fuel on IOR-Recapture Fire
The American Banker today reports that FRB Gov. Christopher Waller answered a question by saying that the Fed does not need the $2 trillion or so housed in the ONRRP to conduct monetary policy. Mr. Waller also said the Fed does not need the level it now holds of central-bank deposits from banks, noting that QT should continue with very significant reductions even though the precise amount of reserves needed to ensure market liquidity is unknown.
As the Fed has hiked interest rates, mortgage rates have of course also gone up, sending a sudden chill through the residential market and putting home ownership even more out of reach for all but those for whom the home equity they still have after prices correct suffices for long-term wealth accumulation. However, mortgage rates have often risen higher than expected from usual yield spreads and thus Fed tightening is even more excruciating not just for the mortgage market, but also for FHFA’s equitable-finance mission and the Fed’s hoped-for soft landing…
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An Implacable Problem with a Policy Solution
As the Fed has hiked interest rates, mortgage rates have of course also gone up, sending a sudden chill through the residential market and putting home ownership even more out of reach for all but those for whom the home equity they still have after prices correct suffices for long-term wealth accumulation. However, mortgage rates have often risen higher than expected from usual yield spreads and thus Fed tightening is even more excruciating not just for the mortgage market, but also for FHFA’s equitable-finance mission and the Fed’s hoped-for soft landing. In this analysis, we assess the dynamics of recent mortgage pricing and what might be done about it.
Reinforcing the sharp turn-around in housing markets evident since the Fed surprised markets with its first 75 bps hike, a new working paper from the San Francisco Fed provides the first hard evidence of how monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. hit listing prices hard and fast….
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The Big Squeeze
Reinforcing the sharp turn-around in housing markets evident since the Fed surprised markets with its first 75 bps hike, a new working paper from the San Francisco Fed provides the first hard evidence of how monetary-policy shocks in the U.S. hit listing prices hard and fast. The study’s approach is data-based, but theoretical; today’s markets suggests it’s also prescient.
No Oops re UMBS
Following a sharp critique of GSE capital standards earlier today from the Urban Institute, FHFA Director Thompson today acknowledged Fannie and Freddie’s new 50 bps fees when one of the GSEs guarantees the other’s collateral for UMBS purposes. The Urban Institute paper argued that these fees properly reflect the capital cost of the rules’ weightings related to these cross-guarantees, going on to say that the fees are likely over time to reduce investor appetite for Freddie Mac securities and thus undermine the UMBS construct and its broader benefits.
When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of
On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa. Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled. The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it. What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look. What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.
On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa. Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled. The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it. What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look. What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.
One might discount my prediction of a political reckoning for the Fed by pointing to President Biden’s stout defense of his central bank last week when he tried to show the nation how much he was doing to quell inflation. But a careful read of Mr. Biden’s statements shows a focus more on the Fed’s independence than on its skill. So far, Secretary Yellen has persuaded White House …