#Signature – Federal Financial Analytics

28 03, 2023

RESOLVE50

Eliza Allen2023-03-28T11:42:40-04:00March 28th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Policy Implications of FDIC-Resolution Innovations

As noted yesterday, the FDIC’s recent rescues have had several unusual features with implications not only for future policy, but also for pending special assessments to replenish the DIF for the $22.5 billion estimated costs to the Deposit Insurance Fund. Analyzed here, new tools – e.g., voluntary liquidation, equity-appreciation rights, lines of credit – have determine the extent to which this estimate holds, how FHLB advances are treated in future resolutions, and the role the FDIC may play in companies that acquire failed IDIs. A forthcoming FedFin report will assess another issue sure to come up at Congressional hearings: why the FDIC and other agencies used these options in concert with a systemic designation protecting uninsured depositors rather than their OLA powers designed to prevent both uninsured-depositor protection and the most recent of the Fed’s facilities backing the banking system.

RESOLVE50.pdf…

27 03, 2023

DAILY032723

Eliza Allen2023-03-27T17:00:51-04:00March 27th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FDIC Adopts New IDI-Resolution Policy

The FDIC’s announcement late yesterday that it had sold portions of SVB to First-Citizens indicate that a provision also in its Signature bridge-bank sale reflect a new FDIC resolution policy: a willingness to take warrants.

Global Authorities Press FX Payment Redesign

The BIS Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) today issued a final report offering a number of recommendations to central banks to facilitate the adoption of PvP systems. To mitigate regulatory barriers, the report recommends that central banks strengthen regulatory incentives for FX market participants to use PvP arrangements, improve settlement risk exposure reporting, and enact robust settlement finality protection.

Barr Defends Fed, Promises Review

Ahead of what is sure to be two raucous days of Congressional hearings, FRB Vice Chairman Barr’s testimony emphasizes that the Federal Reserve will use “all its tools” to protect banks of all sizes and that all deposits at all banks are safe.

Gruenberg Mounts Vigorous FDIC Defense, Presses For Significant Rule, Premium-Assessment Rewrite

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg’s testimony ahead of Congressional hearings describes the Signature and SVB actions, rebutting bailout assertions on grounds that the banks in fact failed and banks – not taxpayers – will make up any FDIC losses. He also indicates that the FDIC can and will investigate insiders to determine responsibility and pursue penalties if appropriate.

Daily032723.pdf…

24 03, 2023

DAILY032423

Eliza Allen2023-03-24T17:13:54-04:00March 24th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Expands Attack On Fed Supervisory Actions

In yet another letter ahead of next week’s hearings, Senate Banking Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) and all Republican Members of the committee asked Fed Chairman Powell and FRB-SF President Daly a series of questions asserting that SVB’s failure reflects significant supervisory lapses.

FSOC Breaks The Glass

Although there is no formal announcement, FSOC will hold what is clearly an emergency, closed meeting later today per a new media advisory.

Top HFSC Republicans Join SVB-Supervisory Inquest

Following a similar letter from Senate Banking Republicans earlier today, HFSC Subcommittee Chairmans Barr (R-KY) and Huizenga (R-MI) along with Rep. Kim (R-CA) sent yet another letter to Vice Chair Barr and FRB-SF President Daly also demanding detailed supervisory-related information on SVB.

Reserve Banks Promise to Bear Some Sometime Soon

Under ever-growing pressure, all of the Federal Reserve Banks today under the New York Fed’s aegis announced a common transparency policy.

HFSC GOP Targets State Bank Supervisors

Top House Republicans today brought state banking commissions into the SVB and SBNY fray, asking each for extensive details on recent actions and setting the April 6 deadline now evident in all recent GOP requests in this arena.

GOP Leaders Also Demand FSOC Answers

HFSC Subcommittee Chairman Barr (R-KY) and Huizenga (R-MI) today also sent letters to FSOC Chair Yellen and Council of Inspectors General on Financial Oversight Chair Delmar requesting detailed information on meetings surrounding the banking agencies’ March 12 decision to invoke a systemic risk exception for SVB …

24 03, 2023

FedFin Analysis: Whom and What the FDIC and Fed Can Save How

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-24T17:05:38-04:00March 24th, 2023|The Vault|

Recent editorials and other media have often said that the FRB and/or FDIC have powers or taken actions that is not the factual case as we understand it. Members of Congress also appear sometimes willing to make assertions about what agencies can do now even if it is unclear if there is statutory authority to do so. We have provided individual clients with key clarifications, but do so now more generally to support strategic and advocacy decision-making. Of particular importance is the authority the FDIC is said to have or lack related to uninsured deposits; as detailed below, the agency actually has significant authority to do so as well as even to back BHC debt, as long as certain stringent conditions are met. As detailed in FSM Report RESCUE65, Congress limited both the FDIC and Fed in hopes that….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

24 03, 2023

RESCUE79

Eliza Allen2023-03-24T16:30:20-04:00March 24th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Analysis: Whom and What the FDIC and Fed Can Save How

Recent editorials and other media have often said that the FRB and/or FDIC have powers or taken actions that is not the factual case as we understand it. Members of Congress also appear sometimes willing to make assertions about what agencies can do now even if it is unclear if there is statutory authority to do so. We have provided individual clients with key clarifications, but do so now more generally to support strategic and advocacy decision-making. Of particular importance is the authority the FDIC is said to have or lack related to uninsured deposits; as detailed below, the agency actually has significant authority to do so as well as even to back BHC debt, as long as certain stringent conditions are met. As detailed in FSM Report RESCUE65, Congress limited both the FDIC and Fed in hopes that the Dodd-Frank orderly-liquidation authority (OLA, see FSM Report SYSTEMIC30) would permit orderly resolution of even the largest banks and nonbanks without long-term federal support; a subsequent FedFin report will bring the assessment of OLA powers into the current crises’ context given that Congress will surely seek to determine why the FDIC and its sister authorities chose to provide taxpayer support rather than deploy OLA.

RESCUE79.pdf…

23 03, 2023

DAILY032323

Eliza Allen2023-03-23T17:09:59-04:00March 23rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

OFR Study Predicts Household Gains, Banking Instability From Digital Currencies

A new OFR working paper concludes that full integration of digital currencies into the economy would reduce financial-system volatility and improve household welfare, but also increase the probability of a banking crisis.

HFSC Poses Still Tougher SVB/SBNY Resolution Questions

Following tough GOP letters to the Fed and FDIC earlier this week, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Subcommittee Chair Hill (R-AR) last night sent even sterner missives to Chairman Gruenberg and Secretary Yellen.

Bipartisan Push Begins For CEO Clawbacks

Ahead of its first of many hearings on the collapse of SVB and SBNY, Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) today sent letters to the former CEOs of the banks demanding that they answer for the bank failures, noting also that they will be expected to testify before the Committee if they are unable to do so next week.

OFR Blog: CRE, Residential Markets Pose Little Systemic Risk

Despite growing concerns about CRE and even potential systemic risk, an OFR blog post today concludes that neither the residential nor commercial real estate market poses a significant threat to the financial system.

Basel Stands By Its Rules, Contemplates New Supervisory Standards

The Basel Committee’s release following its March 14 meeting unsurprisingly notes the bank failures preceding it just days before, but attributes them principally to poor risk management in the face of rising rates.

GSEs Seek Public Comment on Credit Score Model Transition

The FHFA today announced…

22 03, 2023

DAILY032223

Eliza Allen2023-03-22T17:37:57-04:00March 22nd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FTC Builds On Treasury Cloud Concerns, Seeks Competition, AI Views

Signaling apprehension about a number of risks outlined in a recent Treasury report, the FTC today requested comment on the business practices of cloud computing providers.

Scott, Warren Reach Over Partisan, Ideological Divide to Blast the Fed

Demonstrating the confluence of populist and progressive thinking about the Fed we anticipated at the start of this year, Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Warren (D-MA) have introduced legislation mandating that the Fed’s inspector general be fully independent of the chair and board of governors.

Fed Under Still More Pressure to Boost Regional-Bank Supervision

Sen. Warren (D-MA) continued her prolific letter-writing campaign, today also joining with Sens. Duckworth (D-IL), Blumenthal (D-CT), Sanders (I-VT), Reed (D-RI), Hirono (D-HI), Markey (D-MA), King (I-ME), Whitehouse (D-RI), Smith (D-MN), Van Hollen (D-MD), and Schatz (D-HI) to call upon Vice Chairman Barr quickly to heighten regulatory standards for banking organizations between $100 and $250 billion.

Powell Protests Suggestions Of Fed Supervisory Error

At his press conference today, Chairman Powell sought to defend the Fed so vigorously that some of his comments may ignite still more criticism.

Yellen Denies FDIC-Coverage Rewrite, Suggests Need for Liquidity-Rule Revisions

In her appearance today before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, Treasury Secretary Yellen refuted press reports that Treasury is considering significant deposit-insurance coverage expansion, saying only that the banking system is safe and it is too soon to consider structural reforms.

Daily032223.pdf…

21 03, 2023

DAILY032123

Eliza Allen2023-03-21T17:00:01-04:00March 21st, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

US Races to Calm Depositors, Bankers

In a concerted effort to quell depositor fear, the White House has told Bloomberg that it will not allow community banks to experience a panic and Secretary Yellen is said shortly to assure bankers that smaller banks will not be allowed to experience a concerted run.

Treasury Stands Behind Small Banks In Systemic Situations

In her formal remarks today, Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed press reports that the U.S. would contemplate interventions similar to those for SVB and SBNY should a smaller bank suffer a deposit run posing contagion risk.

CFPB Adds to Credit-Card Competition Interventions

Continuing its campaign against large credit-card companies (see FSM Report CREDITCARD36), the CFPB today launched an expanded credit card issuer survey to post new information on smaller companies the agency thinks beneficial to increase competition in this sector.

Adeyemo Reiterates US Backstop

In addition to Secretary Yellen’s comments today, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo not only praised his agency’s response, but also reaffirmed that the government is prepared to back smaller banks.

Daily032123.pdf…

20 03, 2023

DAILY032023

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T17:07:20-04:00March 20th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

HFSC Sets Plan For Crisis Review

In what may be an effort to buy some time as the banking crisis hopefully eases and tempers cool, HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) late Friday asked GAO to conduct an immediate review of recent bank failures, insider actions, and related policy actions such as the March 12 systemic rescue and new Fed facility.

Warren Piles On To Powell With New IG Study

Sen. Warren (D-MA) in a letter Saturday applied even more pressure on the banking agencies by urging the Fed’s, FDIC’s, and Treasury’s IGs to conduct independent investigations of the bank as well as “regulatory and supervisory problems” leading to failures, renewing claims that Chair Powell is especially culpable.

McHenry, Scott Take Gloves Off For Fed, FDIC Investigation

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) and Ranking Senate Banking Member Scott (R-SC) today sent letters to Chair Powell and Chair Gruenberg, making it clear that – for all Mr. McHenry’s more conciliatory statements – Republicans are launching an investigation premised on potential missteps by the Fed and/or FDIC warranting rapid remediation.

House GOP Conservatives Oppose Liberalized FDIC-Coverage Ceiling

Countering demands for an end to FDIC insurance ceilings not only from Sen. Warren (D-MA), but also from their GOP peers, the very conservative House Freedom Caucus today released a statement demanding an end to what it calls “big government bailouts.”

Daily032023.pdf…

20 03, 2023

Karen Petrou: Three Fast, Urgent Fixes to U.S. Bank Supervision and One Major Change to End Bailouts

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T11:35:24-04:00March 20th, 2023|The Vault|

In the wake of recent bank failures, much has rightly been said about how supervisors failed to act even though warning claxons blared. Nothing that happened to Silvergate, SVB, or Signature is due to forces beyond supervisory control, but there are deep, structural weaknesses in how banks have long been supervised. How long? I went back to my 2001 Senate Banking testimony about what was then the largest-ever failure to find that many of the lessons that should have been learned never sunk in.

Given that this hearing was in 2001, a good deal of what I said about bank capital requirements was about Basel I and is thus long out of date. However, one key point isn’t: the capital triggers used to spark prompt corrective action (PCA) were and are an unduly-simplistic way to identify the need for rapid supervisory intervention.

Silvergate, SVB, and Signature were all “well” capitalized right up to the brink of collapse because each of the banks in its own way arbitraged the capital rules to enormous – and obvious – advantage. Nothing in law or rule bars bank supervisors from stepping in well before PCA ratios sink but nothing seems to stir supervisors to do so. 1991’s PCA requirements were an important advance at the time, but it was outdated only a decade later. Now, it’s a dangerous supervisory distraction.

What else noted in 2001 remains an urgent fix? Over two decades ago, I urged the FDIC to reinstate the high-growth early-warning system it …