#treasury – Federal Financial Analytics

12 08, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why the 1951 Fed-Treasury Accord Doesn’t Matter in 2024

Eliza Allen2024-08-12T10:24:30-04:00August 12th, 2024|The Vault|

Later this month, FedFin will issue a brief assessing whether Fed independence is really at risk, taking into account not just what Donald Trump has said, but also what progressives and populists agree should be done to change the U.S. central bank’s governing law. As we’ve frequently noted, Donald Trump can talk tough about the Fed, but Congress has to agree to get tough before he can do anything but gradually change Fed leadership and hope his appointees do his bidding despite formidable resistance across the Fed’s entrenched institutional culture. The forthcoming brief will put much of the daily back-and-forth on this critical question into the often-missing context needed to understand how much risk the Fed really runs. However, I’ve gotten so many questions in the last few days following an American Banker article that I’ll answer a few of them now.

The questions revolve around the Fed-Treasury agreement in 1951 putting Treasury fully in the debt-pricing lane and keeping it out of Fed decisions setting monetary policy based on its macroeconomic judgment, not national fiscal or political demands. The question? It’s whether Treasury under Trump could revoke the 1951 Accord and regain control over monetary policy.

The best independent analysis of the history surrounding the 1951 Accord and its substance comes in a paper written in 2001 on the Accord’s fiftieth anniversary by staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. It rightly puts the Accord squarely in the historical context necessary to understand if the 1951 Accord has …

2 07, 2024

FedFin: Taking Trump Still More Seriously

Arezou Rafikian2024-07-02T16:24:40-04:00July 2nd, 2024|The Vault|

In the wake of last week’s debate, clients have asked that we advise about what a second Trump term might mean for U.S. mortgage finance. We reviewed our forecast at the start of this year on exactly this point. Much of it remains as before, but there are several areas where an update is warranted due to recent Trump fiscal- and monetary-policy trial balloons. Our updated, complete forecast follows….

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

31 10, 2023

FedFin Assessment: New White House AI Policy Promises New KYC Requirements, Banking-Agency Guidance

Arezou Rafikian2023-10-31T13:33:25-04:00October 31st, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we assess the detailed executive order (EO) issued late Monday afternoon after days of private showings of selected versions. Much in the EO’s binding provisions address near-term AI-related threats to national-security, pandemic-risk, and infrastructure vulnerabilities and much related to AI-related opportunities derive from internal procedures Mr. Biden urges the federal government to develop along with workforce protections and biomedical research. The EO also reiterates the Administration’s values and presses agencies to work still harder on voluntary industry standards that many have been drafting or disagreeing on since the White House and Congress first called attention to AI risk. What comes of these provisions in the EO remains to be seen, but the Administration has also used tools such as the Defense Production Act’s authorization for direct economic intervention to mandate an array of new AI commercial and technology safeguards.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

15 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Post-SVB Deposit Insurance Reform

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-15T16:58:47-04:00March 15th, 2023|The Vault|

Cementing prior denouncements of 2018 Dodd-Frank “rollbacks” into legislative action, 17 Democratic senators and 31 House Members today took direct aim at Trump-era banking policy by introducing legislation that would repeal Title IV of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. But, while this initiative is gaining considerable attention, its legislative prospects are dim – indeed, even Senate Banking Committee Chairman Brown (D-OH) suggested as much…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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13 03, 2023

FedFin First Take: Failure Fall-out

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-15T16:50:33-04:00March 13th, 2023|The Vault|

As we noted last night, the President concurred with Treasury, the Fed, and FDIC in deciding that SVB’s Friday failure and imminent runs on Signature Bank and, most likely, others posed a systemic risk. This determination permits the FDIC to override all the efforts to end the moral hazard feared when uninsured depositors are fully protected in bank resolutions and came with a new Fed facility making it still easier for banks to obtain liquidity from the Federal Reserve. As we also observed, much effort is being made to assert that none of these backstops is a bailout, a conclusion sure to draw considerable discussion and dissent even from those who concur that the scale of potential run risk Monday morning could not otherwise have been averted. With this risk hopefully now resolved, much policy and political debate will begin about the Administration’s decision; why Silicon Valley Bank was so vulnerable;…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

6 03, 2023

Karen Petrou: Why Way-Woke Won’t Work in 2023

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-06T16:31:48-05:00March 6th, 2023|The Vault|

The fact that both the House and Senate passed a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning the Department of Labor’s ESG standards makes it clear that striking an anti-woke blow is deemed good politics by red and purple politicians. The President’s certain veto also makes it clear that a blue man sees matters quite differently, as did 204 House Democrats and 46 of their Senate colleagues. This stalemate will continue for changes to federal law, but it won’t stop Republicans from taking a lot out on financial regulators and big banks that they can’t get into the law books. Thus, anyone deemed even a bit woke-ful will get an earful.

Even if all these excoriations are only rhetorical, they will prove meaningful because even federal regulators immune from the appropriations process are susceptible to political influence – as well they should be if they are not also to be unaccountable. That anti-wokeness is already making its mark is evident in many ways, most recently in the inter- agency crypto-liquidity risk statement at great pains to refute any Republican suggestion that tough new standards amount to a blanket ban on engaging in any form of legal cryptoasset activity. In essence, the new statement says, “banks can do crypto if it’s legal, but they almost surely shouldn’t do crypto because it’s way risky and we’re watching.”

To be sure, anything crypto isn’t always toxic. Another way the agencies will handle accusations that they are conducting a stealth-woke anti-crypto campaign is to make it …

21 11, 2022

FedFin on: Treasury Plumbs the Depth of Nonbank Finance, Seeks New Merger Policy, Rules

Arezou Rafikian2022-11-22T13:19:47-05:00November 21st, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, this report provides an in-depth analysis of Treasury’s report and resulting recommendations to the President’s Competition Council on the impact of new nonbank consumer-finance entrants from a competition, consumer-protection, and financial-stability perspective. Although the report calls for reconsideration of bank-merger policy with an eye to the growing role of fintechs and bigtechs, its overall view of market power fails in our view to capture the actual landscape in which…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

14 11, 2022

FedFin on: Treasury Inches Closer to All-to-All Trading

Arezou Rafikian2022-11-14T16:01:03-05:00November 14th, 2022|The Vault|

Building on our initial assessment, this report goes in-depth into the Treasury assessment of the market for its obligations and reforms necessary to avert another dash for cash. Although the Federal Reserve, which participated in this study along with other agencies, indicated in 2020 it will review the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) to…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

17 10, 2022

Karen Petrou: Fed Financial Losses and Big-Bank Political risk

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-17T15:39:27-04:00October 17th, 2022|The Vault|

Congress will do nothing about anything until the midterm election seals each Member’s fate. Thus, I expect nothing to come from Congress in 2022 responding to the Fed’s sudden turn for the financial worst. However, when Congress again comes to thinking about the Fed, it will not go unnoticed despite all the acrimony about monetary-policy miscues that taxpayers are in some ways now far more clearly subsidizing payments to banks, MMFs, and other financial companies holding deposits with the central bank or using its standing market windows. The last time Congress thought about interest rates on reserves (IRR), more than a few Members wanted it back. Given that these payments are now at what seems direct taxpayer cost, they’ll have a lot of new friends in the next Congress unless someone quickly shows why these interest payments are an artifact of Fed confusion, not big-bank malfeasance.

Yes, I know – the $2.9 billion loss the Fed reported in terms of Treasury remittances for the first week of October isn’t a direct taxpayer subsidy any more than the hundreds of billions the Fed has sent to the Treasury since 2008 are funds directly taken from taxpayers. The ups and downs of Fed remittances are the result of balance-sheet operations comprised of liabilities owed to financial companies and earnings on assets in the Fed’s portfolio. Neither is direct spending nor revenue raising. This is, though, a technicality for Members of Congress who have become used to having the Fed – and …

26 09, 2022

Karen Petrou: Nonbanks Win Big

Arezou Rafikian2022-09-27T10:49:12-04:00September 26th, 2022|The Vault|

As our in-depth reports detailed, Treasury took the President’s policy edicts to heart when crafting a new digital-finance policy for the U.S. Treasury could have ducked some hard decisions via laudatory rhetoric, but it chose instead to recommend specific policies that cut a new path to a U.S. CBDC and crypto regulation. Our reports detail key policy decisions and what’s soon to be done with them, but one warrants even more immediate attention: Treasury’s decision to adhere not just to the President’s executive order on crypto-finance, but also to another on increasing financial sector competition. This puts banks on notice that not all have yet taken.

Overlooked in much analysis of Treasury’s sweeping reports is its call to break up what Treasury clearly sees as the monopoly banks have long enjoyed over payment-system access. Treasury for example argues that many banks have exited retail remittances even though these are critical to financial inclusion and leaves the market ill-served. Indeed, it wants nonbanks to obtain overall instant-payment access, saying:

Network effects support the adoption of instant payment systems: Widespread use makes it more likely that a payor can use an instant payment system to make a payment to a payee, increasing the system’s value. … Broadening the range of financial institutions that are eligible to participate in instant payment systems, as certain foreign jurisdictions have done, could help to enhance speed and efficiency, competition, and inclusion in payments, including for cross-border payments.

The problem with Treasury’s call for payment-system …