#Warner – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

20 03, 2023

LIQUIDITY33

Eliza Allen2023-03-20T16:12:26-04:00March 20th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Analysis: Possible Cures for a Viral Run

Among the most vexing issues in the wake of SVB’s failure is the extent to which social media may have led to the first “viral run,” a run akin to the meme-stock volatility that lead the SEC and others to fear a new form of “flash-crash” risk. In this report, we assess current policy options related to deposit runs resulting from social media, an issue cited frequently by HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) as a top priority as he begins work on post-SVB financial standards. We note some remedies – e.g., a ban on deposit-related communication were they permissible under various constitutional and statutory free-speech edicts. In this report, we thus assess tools more readily at hand that federal regulators might deploy now that social media’s destabilizing impact has been recognized, noting the challenges of forestalling runs without at the same time providing opinions on individual banking organizations or issuing preemptive systemic protections that would have the effect of eliminating deposit-insurance limits. This report will thus also assess other options, including standards prohibiting deposit-related “exclusivity” requirements, dedicated Fed liquidity facilities, and revisions to the liquidity rules. Options to revise FDIC coverage to address this risk through structural changes to coverage thresholds will be detailed in a forthcoming Petrou op-ed.

LIQUIDITY33.pdf…

9 02, 2023

Daily020923

Eliza Allen2023-02-09T16:59:20-05:00February 9th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FHFA Forecasts Substantive FHLB Action

Ahead of tomorrow’s comments on the FHLB System by Director Thompson (see forthcoming FedFin analysis), an FHFA official’s op-ed in the American Banker for the first time makes it clear that last year’s hearings will lead to substantive action. This rebuts suggestions Karen Petrou also discounted on a recent podcast when asked if the hearings were just a FHFA exercise to defer action.

Housing Finance Plays Second Fiddle At Senate Banking

Today’s Senate Banking Committee opening hearing for this Congress focused on public, rural, and rental housing. In addition, Chairman Brown (D-OH) concentrated on rental affordability; Ranking Member Scott (R-SC) addressed the federal deficit and federal housing policies.

Daily020923.pdf…

5 08, 2022

DAILY080522

Eliza Allen2023-01-04T13:22:18-05:00August 5th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Dems Demand Answers from Equifax re Inaccurate Credit Scores

In a letter today to Equifax’s CEO, Sens. Warren (D-MA), Warner (D-VA), and Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) demanded answers about erroneous credit scores, asking why the company failed to notify affected borrowers and waited several weeks to notify lenders. The Senators claim that Equifax’s response in an environment of rising interest rates forced some borrowers to pay higher rates or rejection and ask Equifax to explain the cause and scope of the error, compensation plans, and whether all affected parties or any relevant regulatory authorities have been notified.

Brown Targets Life-Insurance Systemic Risk

Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) today announced that he plans a hearing questioning the role of private-equity companies in the life-insurance sector. In letters to FIO and the NAIC, he cites Federal Reserve statements regarding insurance-industry leverage (see Client Report SYSTEMIC93), indicating that he believes this poses systemic challenges akin to those in the banking sector before 2008. FIO is asked to target analysis of offshore reinsurance sector risk-taking across the life-insurance sector; NAIC is asked to work with the FIO on issues raised in its prior letter to the chairman.

Daily080522.pdf…

18 03, 2022

DAILY031822

Eliza Allen2023-04-03T14:21:59-04:00March 18th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Commodity-Market Backstop Prospects, Impact

In this alert, we update clients on our assessment of policy consequences related to commodity-market strains. Notably, a letter from European energy traders to the ECB has been made public indicating stress in this sector is so severe that traders are seeking emergency liquidity support. While directed to the ECB, the letter calls upon all central banks to provide this support, making it likely that a similar plea has been sent to the Federal Reserve.

Congress Wants More, Tougher Sanctions

Although witnesses at yesterday’s Senate Banking Committee sought to assure Congress that digital currency does not promote sanctions evasion (see Client Report SANCTION17), legislation continues to advance to curtail any form of sanctions evasion. As we noted yesterday, senior Senate Democrats have introduced a bill expressly targeting digital assets and exchanges while HFSC marked up numerous bills tightening more conventional financial-transmission and policy channels.

Daily031822.pdf…

17 03, 2022

SANCTION17

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-03T14:38:13-04:00March 17th, 2022|5- Client Report|

Targeted Digital-Asset Standards Possible in Senate

The Senate Banking Committee’s hearing today on illicit finance focused as expected on cryptocurrency and suggests that targeted legislation addressing specific jurisdiction or compliance issues might advance on a bipartisan basis. Sen. Warren (D-MA) is, though, seeking a much broader bill. Joined by other panel Democrats but not Chairman Brown (D-OH), the bill would expand the reach of current sanctions to certain foreign firms, increase the President’s sanction power in this sector, and — most controversially — demand public reports on troublesome firms and individuals. Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) made it clear that he is not prepared to go this far, reiterating longstanding views that digital assets enhance innovation and should be more widely used in the U.S. to ensure global leadership in a fast-growing sector.

SANCTION17.pdf…

15 02, 2022

FedFin: Stablecoin Legislative Consensus in Sight, But from a Distance

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T15:59:02-04:00February 15th, 2022|The Vault|

Despite fierce partisan fighting over pending Fed nominations, today’s Senate Banking hearing on stablecoin regulation was considerably more bipartisan that last week’s HFSC session (see Client Report CRYPTO24). Both Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) are in broad agreement on a two-tier structure in which stablecoins are issued either by banks or by nonbanks subject to strict reserve-asset, AML, and related regulation.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here…

15 02, 2022

CRYPTO25

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T15:58:50-04:00February 15th, 2022|5- Client Report|

Stablecoin Legislative Consensus in Sight, But from a Distance

Despite fierce partisan fighting over pending Fed nominations, today’s Senate Banking hearing on stablecoin regulation was considerably more bipartisan that last week’s HFSC session (see Client Report CRYPTO24). Both Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) are in broad agreement on a two-tier structure in which stablecoins are issued either by banks or by nonbanks subject to strict reserve-asset, AML, and related regulation. That said, we think it may prove difficult for Democrats and Republicans to agree on key details in the construct of a U.S. private stablecoin regime, with the thorniest issue likely to prove the extent to which the federal construct preempts state regulation. Further, Sen. Brown signaled that there will be more stablecoin hearings before any action occurs, making it unlikely that time will permit resolution of outstanding differences of opinion within the Senate and then with the House before the end of this session.

CRYPTO25.pdf…

18 11, 2021

REFORM210

Arezou Rafikian2023-05-25T16:00:56-04:00November 18th, 2021|5- Client Report|

Omarova Nomination Threatened

As expected, today’s hearing with Comptroller-nominee Saule Omarova included an unprecedented amount of fireworks for what is normally a low profile appointment. In this report, we omit analysis of the debate on Ms. Omarova’s origins and alleged Marxism, instead assessing policy issues germane should Ms. Omarova succeed in what seems an increasingly difficult confirmation. Notably, moderate Democrats such as Sens. Tester (D-MT) and Warner (D-VA) were clearly concerned with Ms. Omarova’s opposition to the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA), while Republicans lambasted her for previous comments about cutting off credit to the oil and gas industry and proposals they believed would nationalize U.S. banking.

REFORM210.pdf…

18 11, 2021

FedFin on: Omarova Nomination Threatened

Arezou Rafikian2023-05-25T16:01:16-04:00November 18th, 2021|The Vault|

As expected, today’s hearing with Comptroller-nominee Saule Omarova included an unprecedented amount of fireworks for what is normally a low profile appointment. In this report, we omit analysis of the debate on Ms. Omarova’s origins and alleged Marxism, instead assessing policy issues germane should Ms. Omarova succeed in what seems an increasingly difficult confirmation. Notably, moderate Democrats such as Sens. Tester (D-MT) and Warner (D-VA) were clearly concerned with Ms. Omarova’s opposition to the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA), while Republicans lambasted her for previous comments about cutting off credit to the oil and gas industry and proposals they believed would nationalize U.S. banking.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

24 09, 2021

GSE-092421

Arezou Rafikian2023-08-03T11:07:28-04:00September 24th, 2021|4- GSE Activity Report|

Twenty Years Long and What Do You Get?

According to a group of Senate Democrats, the answer to this question for a new class of federally-backed mortgages is “out of debt.” A new bill thus creates 20-year FRMs with 30-year FRM amortization schedules for low-income, first-generation borrowers. Treasury would then make up the difference to lenders and investors.

GSE-092421.pdf…