#Warren

26 04, 2022

FedFin on: Chopra Stands His Ground on Sweeping Agenda, Administrative Process

2023-03-01T15:52:51-05:00April 26th, 2022|The Vault|

The Senate Banking Committee’s hearing today with CFPB Director Chopra was a sharply partisan session with little immediate impact on what Mr. Chopra plans to do to achieve his sweeping new vision.  Although the debate will have little to no impact on bank-merger policy, much of the session focused on the actions Mr. Chopra took in concert with Acting Chairman Gruenberg to wrest FDIC control from former Chair McWilliams and issue an RFI suggesting significant changes to both merger analytics and bank-resolution policy…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

15 02, 2022

FedFin: Stablecoin Legislative Consensus in Sight, But from a Distance

2023-04-04T15:59:02-04:00February 15th, 2022|The Vault|

Despite fierce partisan fighting over pending Fed nominations, today’s Senate Banking hearing on stablecoin regulation was considerably more bipartisan that last week’s HFSC session (see Client Report CRYPTO24).  Both Chairman Brown (D-OH) and Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) are in broad agreement on a two-tier structure in which stablecoins are issued either by banks or by nonbanks subject to strict reserve-asset, AML, and related regulation.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here

18 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Inflation’s High Cost to Competition and Comity

2023-04-24T15:18:29-04:00January 18th, 2022|The Vault|

It’s not news that the latest inflation data are disastrous.  Even if they won’t last, as Mr. Powell again assured Congress, it sure is hard to see how the combination of pressures detailed in the inflation data lead to ta rate even close to the FOMC’s median projection for 2022 of 2.6 percent.  This means that real rates will remain negative throughout 2022 and well into 2023.  Indeed, given that the FOMC’s median projection for the near-term fed funds rate never gets above 2.1 percent, even the Fed has tacitly conceded that negative real rates may well be  prolonged absent either divine intervention or another devilishly-deep recession.  In June of last year, I predicted that U.S. inflation would not prove transitory and forecast the political impact finally understood at the highest levels of the Biden White House.  Much is also now being written about the inequality impact I described last year, but little is said about the sum total impact of these sorry facts of life on the financial system.  These may also prove anything but transitory.

The first financial-system impact of high inflation and slow growth for anything but the S&P is both political and structural.  With his back increasingly pushed to the wall by inflation’s toxic equality impact, Mr. Biden defended himself against the latest CPI numbers by arguing that many of them are due to monopolistic price controls best cured by rapid antitrust initiatives such as the one already launched against the meat industry.

Other …

11 01, 2022

FedFin Assessment: Powell Sidesteps Many Challenges, Promises Much

2023-04-24T15:54:45-04:00January 11th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE66), we listened closely today to gauge the extent to which Chairman Powell faces a serious challenge to reconfirmation. At least as far as Senate Banking Members are concerned, he doesn’t. Although Sen. Warren (D-MA) and other Democrats lambasted Mr. Powell over insider-trading allegations and what they called the Fed’s unresponsiveness, all still were cordial and seemed generally to blame the problem on institutional failures, not the chairman. Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) called the Fed’s diversity policy “outrageous,” but also does not seem inclined….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

8 10, 2021

FedFin on: Bank Merger Restrictions

2023-06-20T15:33:46-04:00October 8th, 2021|The Vault|

Progressive Democrats in the House and Senate have introduced legislation demanding an array of new decision factors governing bank M&A transactions and new or even revised BHC activities.  President Biden’s executive order demanding more competitive U.S. markets includes numerous bank-related provisions, but does so largely through requests of independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve to work with the Department of Justice to reduce bank consolidation and enhance community service.  This legislation backs up these goals with binding requirements that dramatically alter the public-interest, financial, and competitive analyses on which M&A or BHC activities have long been assessed.  Many more acquisitions, especially by or among large banks, would almost surely be rejected and the process might also become so public as to undermine the confidentiality essential to initial M&A agreement.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

5 10, 2021

FedFin: Gensler: SEC Will Not Ban Crypto, Will Treat as Securities

2023-06-28T15:31:17-04:00October 5th, 2021|The Vault|

As anticipated, today’s HFSC hearing with SEC Chair Gensler covered the full SEC agenda, although members steered clear of the SEC investigation demanded by Sen. Warren (D-MA) into recent Fed trading.  Chair Gensler defended his budget request, citing for example a major increase in IPOs and saying the SEC is a “cop on the beat” ensuring investors are protected.  Democrats pushed Mr. Gensler to take more action on crypto while Republicans argued crypto is not a security; Chair Gensler was consistent throughout the hearing in his belief that the law is clear on what is a security, but noted also it may be outdated in some areas and thus urged Congress to update the law if it sees appropriate.  Like Fed Chair Powell (see Client Report REFORM209), Chair Gensler pledged he would not ban crypto.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

4 10, 2021

Karen Petrou: How to Ensure Equitable Fed Intervention in the Crisis Next Time

2023-07-05T15:57:30-04:00October 4th, 2021|The Vault|

With her unerring instinct for the jugular on which media thrive, Sen. Warren on Tuesday called Jay Powell a “dangerous man.”  This promptly sent many into still more feverish speculation about the Fed’s next chairman, blotting out coverage of an even more consequential development in the House:  Democratic plans to rewrite the Fed’s powers in the next financial crisis.  Last week, I pointed to the political price for Mr. Powell’s renomination:  the Omarova appointment.  A structural one with even more lasting impact is the rewrite of the Fed’s emergency-liquidity powers to, as Democrats demand, end backstops for “Wall Street” in favor of Fed facilities for everyone else.

Although little noticed, HFSC Chairwoman Waters on Thursday said for the second time in as many weeks that “Our committee is committed to ideas to ensure that facilities like these [the Fed’s in 2020] can more directly support workers and small businesses as well as state and local governments the next time there is a crisis.”  Holding fire on Mr. Powell, Senate Banking Chairman Brown also targeted Fed support for Wall Street in his opening statement on Tuesday.  This follows an inconclusive HFSC hearing a week or so ago on just what these new facilities might look like but make it clear that an array of reforms is under active consideration.

Importantly, these demands for people-focused facilities aren’t an isolated case of progressive pique.  After the 2008 crisis, there was much bipartisan ire over whom the Fed helped how.  This led to a …

27 09, 2021

Karen Petrou: The Powell Political Calculus

2023-08-03T10:18:53-04:00September 27th, 2021|The Vault|

Although the quadrennial kerfuffle over appointment of the Federal Reserve chair gets a good deal of public attention, I cannot recall a time when anyone outside banking’s inner circles cared much about who might be the next Comptroller or Vice Chair of Supervision.  And, although they’ve garnered more attention of late in the diversity context, Federal Reserve presidencies were of even less public interest.  Not only are all of these appointments now proving remarkably consequential, but they also pose a particularly thorny political equation for President Biden.

While all of these finance appointments are significant, that for Jay Powell as Fed chairman is of course the most important of them all.  Although key lips are publicly zipped, Treasury Secretary Yellen would like to see Mr. Powell’s reappointment as would a host of other high-impact Democratic influencers. The plethora of coverage suggesting global financial markets will collapse if Mr. Powell is deposed peddle patent nonsense, but nonetheless signify the stakes some assign to his cause.

Despite this formidable support, the Powell reappointment was still proving difficult even before the Reserve Bank stock-trading disclosures.  As I noted at the time, it’s a lot easier to understand individual financial bets than monetary-policy complexities.  It’s thus unsurprising that Mr. Powell’s latest concessions are proving far from satisfactory to an array of high-impact Democratic influencers very emphatically not to be found on Wall Street.  One of Mr. Powell’s strengths in the renomination battle has been divisions among Democratic progressives, making this resonant scandal particularly …

20 09, 2021

Karen Petrou: Choosing Between Evisceration, Amputation, or Decapitation to Punish Big Banks

2023-08-03T14:36:09-04:00September 20th, 2021|The Vault|

One can pretty much count on senior Democrats to demand summary execution when Wells Fargo stumbles on its troubled path to exoneration from the Fed’s scorching 2018 enforcement order. So, when the OCC last week embarrassed the bank with renewed sanctions, Sen. Warren didn’t miss a beat; as we noted, she promptly sent Jay Powell a letter demanding that the bank be disemboweled. However, if Sen. Warren really wants to ensure that accident-prone banks mend their ways, she would do better by pressing remedies that might really work for the consumers she wants to protect.

Disembowelment via Sen. Warren would come via regulatory resurrection of the Glass-Steagall Act along her preferred lines. As she explains this in her letter, the Fed would use the authority she believes it has to revoke Wells Fargo’s charter as a financial holding company (FHC), thereby ending the holding company’s ability to engage in both consumer banking and securities activities.

Sen. Warren considers the mix of consumer and capital-markets activities fraught with contagion for vulnerable consumers, but none of the violations that sparked enforcement orders has anything to do with wholesale finance and could well have occurred in the most consumer-pristine of retail banks. For example, the OCC’s latest order punishes what are said to be severe lapses in mortgage servicing. IPO offerings, brokerage services, and even junk-bond sales have diddly to do with mortgage servicing or the cross-selling scandal that brought all this down on the bank in the first place. Thus, divesting capital-markets …

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