#Warren – Federal Financial Analytics

13 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: The Fate of the Federal Reserve

Arezou Rafikian2024-11-14T15:45:31-05:00November 13th, 2024|The Vault|

In a recent client brief, we provided our forecast of what might happen to Federal Reserve independence, process, powers, and personnel under either a Harris or Trump presidency. This is of course no longer an either/or matter, with this report thus reviewing and, where needed, updating our initial assessment of what Mr. Trump could do to the central bank even where Chair Powell says he can’t. Sherrod Brown’s defeat makes the Fed particularly vulnerable in the Senate, where Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) stands a strong chance of becoming the Banking Committee’s ranking Democrat. She and incoming chair Tim Scott (R-SC) will agree on a lot about the Fed, especially if Sen. Rick Scott – a frequent Warren ally on the Fed front – becomes Majority Leader….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

8 04, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why Lowering Interest Rates Now Makes Housing Even More Unaffordable

Shane Smith2024-04-08T09:30:15-04:00April 8th, 2024|The Vault|

As we’ve noted, Sen. Warren and a raft of progressive Democrats are emphatically demanding that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates to promote affordable housing. However, as a new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas note confirms, low rates don’t necessarily make it easier to buy a home because house prices generally rise as rates fall. Worse still, ultra-low real rates eviscerate not just the ability of all but the well-heeled and -housed to save for a down payment, but also for much else that ensures economic resilience and long-term security. Simply put, lower for longer makes the U.S. still more economically unequal, not exactly what progressives want.

The assumption in Sen. Warren’s letter and a like-kind one from Chair Brown is that lower mortgage rates reduce the carrying cost of a mortgage and thus make it easier for lower-income households to qualify for a loan. However, this seemingly-obvious conclusion assumes that housing markets are static and, as any real-estate agent will tell you, they aren’t.

When rates go down, demand goes up and prices do the same. Or, as the Dallas Fed study observes, a one-percentage-point hike in short-term rates usually lowers house prices by 7.5 percent over two years. Just as intuition suggests that easy money spurs homebuying, so it is that tight money reduces demand and prices respond accordingly.

Or, they do in a normal market and there haven’t been any of these since the Fed sent interest rates below inflation-adjusted zero in 2008 and kept them …

20 07, 2023

FedFin on: Senate Banking Kicks Deposit-Insurance Reform Down the Road

Arezou Rafikian2023-07-21T17:03:13-04:00July 20th, 2023|The Vault|

In the wake of today’s Senate Banking deposit-insurance reform hearing, it seems certain that there will be no legislation in the near term and most likely in this Congress to increase FDIC-insurance thresholds. Although the FDIC recommended a new approach to transaction accounts in its policy review following recent bank failures (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE119), Senators on both sides of the aisle demurred. Chairman Brown (D-OH) made it clear that any change in FDIC-coverage limits is conditioned on final, tougher bank regulations, essentially telling banks that successfully opposing new rules means keeping FDIC coverage as is….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

10 07, 2023

Karen Petrou: The Bankruptcy of Bank-Merger Policy

Eliza Allen2023-07-10T14:18:07-04:00July 10th, 2023|The Vault|

On Wednesday, a Senate Banking subcommittee will consider bank-merger policy, surely providing a platform for its chair, Sen. Warren’s pronounced views opposing all but the smallest bank mergers and maybe not even those. Many other senators are not as adamant, but even pro-business Republicans – see J.D. Vance – think bank mergers beyond the itty-bitty are at best problematic. The politics of this debate is obvious; the substance not so much. As with many other questions, bank-merger policy is best set with a keen understanding of recent, objective research and what it actually says about concentration as it occurs outside the gaze of those fearful only of still bigger big banks.

That there is undue market power in a financialized economy that brings a raft of woes is all too clear. I thus hoped that Assistant Attorney General Kanter’s remarks last month would be a meaningful update of the Department of Justice’s anachronistic 1995 policy. It helped, but only a bit because Mr. Kanter focused principally on enforcement, leaving “broader” questions solely to the banking agencies.

They in turn have long promised a transparent merger policy, but it’s still deal-by-deal, case-by-case, crisis-by-crisis. More than a few mid-sized banks will wither away as deliberations continue because the sheer uncertainty and delays of most bank mergers undermine their economic value, particularly at a time of high interest rates, slow or no growth, tough new rules, and withering competition.

Recent antitrust research does not substantiate easy, blanket assertions about the benefits or …

6 06, 2023

FedFin on: Compensation Clawbacks

Arezou Rafikian2023-06-06T16:43:15-04:00June 6th, 2023|The Vault|

Sen. Warren (D-MA) has introduced a revised version of legislation to ensure that both the FDIC and other federal banking agencies can demand that executives and others governing failed banks refund direct and indirect compensation to the federal government. As with Sen. Warren’s prior bill to do so, this bill is bipartisan, now also containing compromise language on several points from the prior bill to increase the odds of enactment. For example, the bill would apply only to those at failed banks with assets over $10 billion, making it more difficult to claw back compensation at smaller banks regardless of the level of compensation or nature of the actions of covered persons….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

27 03, 2023

Karen Petrou: Another SVB Casualty: U.S. Biomedical Research

Eliza Allen2023-03-27T10:27:35-04:00March 27th, 2023|The Vault|

As seems always the case when fear has the banking system in its maw, myths have proliferated that are now also magnified and amplified by viral social media. One such myth about Silicon Valley Bank has it that most of its depositors were high-wealth, high-tech folk whom the government should never bail out. In fact, many depositors had no choice but to park all their funds at SVB, a more-then-dubious practice at the bank that almost brought biomedical research to its knees. Had these depositors been forced to bear losses, treatments and cures for life-threatening and-changing diseases would have stalled, likely for years. We need not only to prevent future researchers from being put at such risk by a single bank, but also to change the biomedical-funding model from one at the mercy of high-cost equity investors to a stable sector for which lower-cost debt is readily at hand for any researcher with demonstrable ability to repay. Think what debt funding did for sustainable energy via green bonds and you’ll see what a like-kind model for “biobonds” could do to speed urgently-needed treatments and cures.

The link between SVB and biomedical research is not the stuff of moral-hazard myth, but rather a complex tale of a specialized institution serving a sector that came to hold unique sway over a vital public good: lengthening life and easing suffering. Providing banking services to venture capital (VC) is a high-risk business unless a financial institution devotes expensive intellectual capital to the sector and …

17 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T16:50:38-04:00March 17th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

12 12, 2022

Karen Petrou: Where New Crypto Enforcement, Regulatory Action Will Land

Arezou Rafikian2022-12-12T15:50:07-05:00December 12th, 2022|The Vault|

As we’ve learned over the years, a memo written is a memo shared. So it was with my last note on what were then little-noticed links between the tumultuous cryptosphere and what regulators assured us was a banking sector aloof from these violent downdrafts. Sens. Warren and Smith then picked up the examples of several bank/crypto hot spots. The result of new facts combined with heightened political risk will surely lead the bank regulators to follow the tried-and-true strategy of slapping a lot of enforcement actions around before agency heads are hauled up to the Hill. Other than stablecoin legislation, new crypto law is uncertain, but after all the enforcement actions will also surely come new banking crypto regulation.

First, though, to incoming enforcement actions as these lay the groundwork for next-gen regulation. Any bank with big crypto exposures no matter how otherwise pristine is already under its examiner’s gun in terms of immediate demands for an inventory of all crypto actions anytime for anyone. The senators include this in their asks, looking for names as well as activities and customers. But the banking agencies were surely already hot on this trail.

Any bank that failed to mind its prior-notice manners will surely get a public drubbing so that regulators can point to a host of cases that uncover all risks anywhere they lurk. And banks now casting covetous eyes on cheap crypto assets will get a talking to from Washington if their own internal risk managers haven’t already …

24 10, 2022

Karen Petrou: Insider Trading, Insider Talking, and the Consequences of Outsider Wrath

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-24T10:53:08-04:00October 24th, 2022|The Vault|

There’s no question that the 2008 crisis was a bit of an embarrassment to everyone in charge no matter what all their memoirs since have said. However, the actual global financial cataclysm was nothing to U.S. voters compared to the torrent of furious protest sparked by Treasury’s maladroit decision to allow top executives at AIG to keep munificent pay raises even though many of them presided over and profited by actions that prompted well over $100 billion in taxpayer bailouts. So it is with the Fed. The looming battle over its billions to big finance companies is, as I detailed last week, a serious structural challenge. But the combination of continuing official trading conflicts and new revelations about closed-door meetings is a lot easier to understand and thus a political killer with immediate consequences for Fed governance when Congress gets around to thinking about things other than itself.

Elizabeth Warren’s already on it. Many will follow her lead not only because they often do, but also because this time she’s mostly right. Even if she weren’t, most people will understand why she was upset by Fed “insider” trading and now by a whole lot of insider talking.

That the St. Louis Fed only says that it needs to “rethink” its policy just throws salt in this gaping political wound. Saying also that the Bank’s president went without compensation to discuss monetary policy behind doors controlled by one of the giant companies it supervises doesn’t come close to countering …

19 10, 2022

FedFin on: USB/MUFG Orders Point to New Merger, Regulatory Policy

Arezou Rafikian2022-10-19T10:27:40-04:00October 19th, 2022|The Vault|

As promised, this analysis focuses on the OCC and FRB approvals of the acquisition by U.S. Bancorp of MUFG’s Union Bank in California. Derided in a tweet from Sen. Warren (D-MA) as another “rubber-stamp” approval, both the nature of the transaction – which included massive commitments to community support – and the approvals themselves suggest otherwise. We shall continue to evaluate agency action on larger transactions and shortly provide clients with an analysis of the FDIC/FRB advance notice of proposed rulemaking on new resolution standards approved for public comment by the FDIC (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE115). However, while policy and politics formulate new standards, pending….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…