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So far Arezou Rafikian has created 2314 blog entries.
23 07, 2025

2025

2025-09-17T10:36:09-04:00July 23rd, 2025|Speeches & Testimony|

Monetary Policy is More than Interest Rates:
The Strategic Impact of Federal Reserve Reform
Karen Petrou
Managing Partner
Federal Financial Analytics, Inc.
Remarks Prepared for the Conference of Counsel
Washington, D.C.
September 18, 2025

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The Dollar, the Sort-Of Dollar, and the End of the Power of Exorbitant Privilege:
What Stablecoins Mean for Reserve-Currency Status
Karen Petrou
Managing Partner
Federal Financial Analytics, Inc.
Remarks Prepared for the National Security Forum
Cosmos Club
Washington, D.C.
August 12, 2025

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The New Federal-Policy Paradigm:
Competitors, Opportunities, and Risks
Karen Petrou
Managing Partner
Federal Financial Analytics, Inc.
Remarks Prepared for the NOLHGA 33rd Legal Seminar
Washington, D.C.
July 24, 2025

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23 07, 2025

American Banker, Wednesday, July 23, 2025

2025-07-23T10:29:25-04:00July 23rd, 2025|Press Clips|

The stablecoin bill is now law. What’s next for banks?

By   Claire Williams

WASHINGTON — Now that President Donald Trump has signed the stablecoin bill into law, banks are gearing up to lobby regulators as they make rules that could either further threaten or protect banks’ traditional turf.
The stablecoin bill poses both an existential threat and opportunity for bankers, experts say….”The issues on which we’re more focused with our banking clients are really the rules that will be forthcoming about how the nonbank issuers can engage on stablecoin,” said Karen Petrou, co-founder of Federal Financial Analytics. “There certainly is the question of the extent to which a bank holding company or an insurance or subsidiary of an IDI could engage in stablecoins. But the bigger issue from most of our clients is what the marketplace is likely to look like and who’s coming at them.” The Fed is also responsible for a key piece. The stablecoin bill says that master account status for nonbank payment stablecoins maintains the status quo, not explicitly banning nonbanks from access.  “Arguably, the Fed has the authority to open master accounts,” Petrou said. “Now, that’s what the stablecoin issuers believe. Banks say no, and the status quo says ‘back over to you, Fed — you decide.”

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/the-stablecoin-bill-is-now-law-whats-next-for-banks

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21 07, 2025

Karen Petrou: How New-Age ILCs Will Bust the Old Banking Paradigm

2025-07-22T12:54:27-04:00July 21st, 2025|The Vault|

As our forthcoming in-depth analysis will make clear, the FDIC’s request for information (RFI) on industrial loan company charters is a critical document to which one must respond in order to have any say in the future of banking as it may soon be set. This is easy to miss — RFIs are usually little more than a duck and cover. See for example the recent inter-agency RFI on payment fraud, from which one can deduce little but that the agencies think fraud is bad — questions asked, decisions deferred, discretion preserved. That is definitely not what the FDIC is about when it comes to ILCs – it is asking tough questions it will begin to answer even before RFI comments are submitted later this year. Who gets an ILC charter will determine winners and losers for decades to come, or so history teaches us.

Due to decisions deferred, the ILC charter has been an unresolved question since the 1980s. Congress then enacted the “Competitive Banking Act” which was anything but since all it did was grandfather the banking/commerce mixes achieved through ILCs through 1987 without quashing all those that came thereafter. As the FDIC notes, ILC and similarly chartered assets grew from $4 billion in 1987 to $213 billion by 2006, when more than a few of the most aggressive ILCs were in high-flying nonbanks that were then bailed out during the 2008 crisis.

One might have thought Congress, or the FDIC would then decide what to do with …

18 07, 2025

Wall Street Journal, Friday, July 18, 2025

2025-07-18T11:26:12-04:00July 18th, 2025|Press Clips|

Why Banks Are on High Alert About Stablecoins

By Dylan Tokar and Gina Heeb

Stablecoins are poised to become a part of the mainstream financial system, and banks are on high alert about how the cryptocurrency could threaten their business. The House voted 308-122 Thursday to pass a bill that spells out some ground rules for stablecoins, which function as digital dollars in the wider crypto world. The Genius Act is now headed to President Trump, who has indicated he would sign it. A major issue for banks is whether stablecoin issuers will lure away customer deposits. A Treasury Department report in April estimated that stablecoins could lead to as much as $6.6 trillion in deposit outflows, depending in part on whether issuers could offer yields similar to bank accounts….Those concerns would be especially acute if nonbank stablecoin issuers were to get access to the Federal Reserve system, said Karen Petrou, managing partner of consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics, in a recent memo. The Genius Act doesn’t prohibit access to the Fed by nonbank stablecoin issuers, so it will remain up to Fed officials to determine who gets access. The Fed system gives banks access to extra cash in the event of market stress. The trade-off for banks are costly liquidity requirements, which don’t currently apply to stablecoin issuers. Nonbank stablecoin issuers could sap deposits from banks and simply invest them for their own benefit, rather than use them to help fund loans “that benefit banks, borrowers and …

14 07, 2025

Karen Petrou: How the For-Cause Firing Squad Lines Up

2025-07-14T10:13:23-04:00July 14th, 2025|The Vault|

Due to the din of demands from the Trump Administration, many observers disregarded Thursday’s letter on behalf of the President from OMB Director Vought to Fed Chair Powell. They shouldn’t. Mr. Trump is not one to let his enemies off lightly. Even as he continued his anti-Powell vendetta on Friday, his officials are readying a way to rid the President of his Fed chair in a way they hope the Supreme Court must accept.

The OMB letter built on accusations that first surfaced at a Senate Banking Committee hearing late last month. These concern renovations at the Fed’s Eccles Building, a dump of grim brutalist architecture that never saw better days but was at least once in reasonable repair. Over the last decade or so, one couldn’t even say that. It is in fact a prime example of the awful architecture the President wants to blot from the face of the nation’s capital.

The Senate GOP inquiry and the OMB letter thus do not question the need for renovation but accused Mr. Powell of allowing gross over-budget spending on luxuries such as “Italian” – not all-American – beehives, “water features”, oodles of high-end marble, and a secluded art gallery. Mr. Powell acknowledges over-spending but said it wasn’t the Fed’s fault and denied any undue expenses for high-end appurtenances.  But, questioned in a follow-up GOP letter, Mr. Powell promised only a staff briefing, doubtless hoping to bury the issue but in fact giving his enemies an open field. Realizing this, the …

11 07, 2025

Politico, Friday, July 11, 2025

2025-07-14T11:36:36-04:00July 11th, 2025|Press Clips|

‘Huge deal’: White House probe fuels speculation Trump could oust Powell

By Sam Sutton

President Donald Trump swore that he wouldn’t attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires next spring. A new White House investigation of cost overruns at the Fed’s headquarters has reignited speculation that he just might try. White House Budget Director Russ Vought’s probe into a yearslong, $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s Washington offices represents a serious escalation in the administration’s offensive against Powell. Trump and other top officials have blasted the Fed chair repeatedly over his refusal to cut interest rates. …. “They appear to be trying to build a strong case for mismanagement and the violation of certain federal rules,” said Karen Petrou, the managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics. “All of the accusations on monetary policy are irrelevant to this. It is a straightforward administrative action.” The Supreme Court has signaled that the president can’t summarily dismiss central bankers. But the White House’s investigation into Powell’s oversight of agency finances — rather than his monetary policy decisions…

https://bit.ly/44G0stG

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8 07, 2025

FedFin on: SLR Reform

2025-07-08T10:09:26-04:00July 8th, 2025|The Vault|

Reflecting a new approach to bank regulation and the strong hand of the Treasury Secretary, federal banking agencies have proposed a sweeping rewrite of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) applicable to the eight U.S. banking organizations designated as global systemically important banks (GSIBs). The proposal does not expressly exempt Treasury obligations from the eSLR denominator, but it alters the manner in which the ratio is calculated….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

1 07, 2025

Banking Dive, Tuesday, July 1, 2025

2025-07-01T16:52:02-04:00July 1st, 2025|Press Clips|

Making sense of the ‘crazy quilt’ of financial regulators

Caitlin Mullen Senior Reporter

As the U.S. bank regulatory system has grown throughout history, so have calls to simplify it. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan this year lamented “the spaghetti chart of overlap” among bank regulators and reiterated suggestions from big-bank executives that it’s time to “start with a fresh sheet of paper.” …It’s an issue that can pit large banks against small: Bigger banks tend to be annoyed by the plethora of regulators, but smaller banks like the choice, Hsu said. “It does feel like Hamilton versus Jefferson,” he said during a June Brookings event. “That tension’s always been there.” And the resources required to stay on top of such a large and complicated banking system demand a sizable apparatus. There’s a comfort factor, too: Consolidation attempts fail “because individual institutions want things the way they are,” said Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics. There are, to some degree, captive regulators “everybody’s quite comfortable with,” and arbitrage opportunities between national and state charters that banks don’t want to lose, she added….

https://www.bankingdive.com/news/bank-regulators-fed-occ-fdic-consolidation-supervision-treasury-trump/751240/

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25 06, 2025

FedFin on: Stablecoin Regulatory Framework

2025-06-26T12:07:17-04:00June 25th, 2025|The Vault|

After extensive controversy and debate, the Senate has passed S. 1582, a bill designed to create the federal framework for dollar-denominated stablecoins subject to U.S. law advocates believe are essential to speed innovation, improve the payment system, protect the dollar’s status, and ensure U.S. leadership in cryptoasset policy.  Opponents generally do not dispute these assertions about possible stablecoin benefits, but strongly object to asymmetries between how payment-stablecoin providers would be regulated compared to banking organizations even when it comes just to offering these instruments.  Concerns are also raised about the extent to which stablecoins would compete directly with bank deposits and disintermediate the economy as well as the extent ….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

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