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Welcome to The Vault. Every week you’ll find a sample of FedFin opinion and analysis on the most recent issues facing financial services firms. Check back frequently to see what’s new. Click here to contact us.

18 11, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why Banks Need More Than Just New Capital Rules

2024-11-18T09:27:52-05:00November 18th, 2024|The Vault|

Bankers complain with considerable fervor about a “tsunami of new rules.”  There has certainly been a flood of standards indirectly implemented by supervisors, simply demanded by the CFPB, proposed, and finalized.  It’s thus understandable that bankers think they’re drowning.  But, as forest fires rage in Brooklyn and much of the nation is conserving water, it’s important to recall that too little rain is also dangerous.  Which brings me to the strategic hazard banks run if deregulation, while alleviating a bit of bank burden, leaves untouched all the regulatory asymmetries that make it easy for shadow banks to dominate still more profitable activities once considered core banking services.  If shadow banks offer better products, so be it.  However, much of their market power derives only from adroit regulatory arbitrage.  That’s not just bad for banks; it’s also dangerous to financial consumers, investors, and stability.

Regulators can go only so far in easing banks’ burden because the law requires many of the rules that bind them.  Nonbanks are not governed by much federal law and there are scant state safety-and-soundness standards.  Tech-platform companies are outside the law unless federal regulators use their inter-connection and antitrust powers to rein them in.  That these nonbanks have their eyes on core intermediation and payment services is now indisputable.  That banks will end up as little more than bedraggled “partners” or ancillary-service providers to nonbanks is inevitable unless necessary bank-regulatory reform comes with long-overdue nonbank safety-and-soundness and resolution standards.

Our forecasts of financial policy under President …

15 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: It’s Still Not Game-On for Most Bank Mergers

2024-11-15T12:58:54-05:00November 15th, 2024|The Vault|

As promised, this post-election forecast looks at bank-merger policy, providing a cautionary note in response to the go-go, game-on forecasts for new mergers often touted by investment bankers.  While community- and midsize-bank mergers will move with more certainty, more alacrity is unlikely unless the OCC and FRB join the FDIC with at least an initial deadline.  The same banking-agency staff who will work on bank mergers next year are also the same banking-agency staff working on them now.  However, we also expect new OCC and FDIC leadership to retract recent agency merger policies, saying at the same time that new ones are forthcoming.  Why is there a need for new ones?  As detailed in this report, aspects of the new policies addressed….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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14 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: The Complex Outlook for Consumer-Finance Regulation

2024-11-14T15:45:08-05:00November 14th, 2024|The Vault|

As with merger policy (see forthcoming FedFin report), consumer-finance regulation will be crafted in the Trump Administration by complex pull-backs of current, progressive standards and pull-forward of populist goals which often parallel progressive ones.  This is most clearly the case where powerful business lobbies such as merchants wield the greatest force (e.g., interchange fees), but will also be evident in consumer-privacy, tech-platform, credit-card, and “relationship-banking” efforts.  This report assesses these and other issues under the CFPB’s jurisdiction, looking also at the outlook for the agency itself as Republicans gain Congressional control, allowing them to press for structural change to this controversial agency…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

13 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: The Fate of the Federal Reserve

2024-11-14T15:45:31-05:00November 13th, 2024|The Vault|

In a recent client brief, we provided our forecast of what might happen to Federal Reserve independence, process, powers, and personnel under either a Harris or Trump presidency.  This is of course no longer an either/or matter, with this report thus reviewing and, where needed, updating our initial assessment of what Mr. Trump could do to the central bank even where Chair Powell says he can’t.  Sherrod Brown’s defeat makes the Fed particularly vulnerable in the Senate, where Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) stands a strong chance of becoming the Banking Committee’s ranking Democrat.  She and incoming chair Tim Scott (R-SC) will agree on a lot about the Fed, especially if Sen. Rick Scott – a frequent Warren ally on the Fed front – becomes Majority Leader….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

12 11, 2024

Karen Petrou: Why Banks Should Want New Capital Rules

2024-11-12T12:02:42-05:00November 12th, 2024|The Vault|

Ever since the election, a lot of bankers have loudly hummed “Ding-dong, regs are dead, the wicked capital regs are dead.”  There is no question that the wicked witch’s demise was warranted, but I’m not so sure about the merits of a similarly-ignominious and total end for the capital rules.  As FedFin reports make clear, too much in these proposals is wrong-headed, even as they may now be revised.  Still, it’s important also to remember that leaving the current rules unchanged leaves as is many provisions that are anachronistic or demonstrably conducive to shadow banking.  There’s never been a better time than now to think about how best to modernize large-bank capital rules without unnecessarily eviscerating large-bank competitiveness.  Here are a few ideas to start things off.

As I suggested in Congressional testimony, one of the silliest sections in the August 2023 capital proposal is the double-layered set of standardized approach (SA) credit-risk capital charges.  Current rules allow big banks to use the advanced approach to credit risk-based capital (RBC), but banks that do so must hold the higher of their own advanced conclusions or the standardized weight.  The proposal gets rid of the advanced approach but still requires banks to pick the higher of two SA options set by the regulators, not advantageous models.

Why have two standardized weights if one of them, while lower than the old weight, is based on what regulators have learned about risk since the old weights were posted in 2013?  If the second …

8 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: Are Crypto’s Wins the Banks’ Losses?

2024-11-08T14:57:19-05:00November 8th, 2024|The Vault|

One of the more striking results of the election is the enormous win crypto firms got for their $135 million of Congressional-campaign spending: victories so far in every race it entered.  Much of this is due not just to crypto’s lure; instead, it reflects choices based not only on a candidate’s crypto sentiments, but also on the opponent’s vulnerability.  As a result, at least some of crypto’s luster could fade when Congress gets back to work.  However, Donald Trump campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, endorsing legislation such as the Lummis (R-WY) bill to create a “strategic reserve” for bitcoins…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

7 11, 2024

FedFin: Don’t Wait Up

2024-11-07T14:50:26-05:00November 7th, 2024|The Vault|

Markets are ablaze with expectations that Trump II will bring back Fannie/Freddie 1.0.  Could it be?  Maybe, but markets were ablaze with like-kind expectations in November 2016, and it still took the White House until January of 2021 on its way out the door to lay out a privatization plan the Biden team promptly filed in the bin.  A lot better will need to happen a lot faster for anything different to happen this time around.  Given the complexities both financial and political, this seems unlikely absent statutory reform by a Congress perennially unable to bring itself to do so.

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.

 

 

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6 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: Trump II Financial-Policy Outlook

2024-11-06T10:55:18-05:00November 6th, 2024|The Vault|

Given the likelihood of a Trump win, we turn in this report to our outlook for federal financial policy in a very different Administration than the one that has set it for the last four years.  We will refine this outlook when final tallies determine Congressional control, but slim margins will dog both parties and thus significantly complicate the legislative outlook.  Congress, like the White House, will also be preoccupied with nomination battles, immigration, geopolitical risk, and acute fiscal-policy challenges in areas such as the new president’s budget, planned tax breaks, and tariffs.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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5 11, 2024

FedFin Assessment: Election Uncertainty and Financial Policy

2024-11-05T14:44:46-05:00November 5th, 2024|The Vault|

FedFin will continue our practice of providing in-depth analyses in this tumultuous election once key races are decided.  However, clients have asked for an interim report on the outlook if election uncertainty persists and, worse, if it is accompanied by civil unrest.  As detailed in this report, we see no near-term implications for what might be considered course-of-business financial policy decisions even though many of these are, like the capital rules, drivers of significant strategic import.  Of more immediate concern are …

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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30 10, 2024

FedFin on: Consumer Data Rights/Open Banking

2024-10-30T14:39:48-04:00October 30th, 2024|The Vault|

The CFPB has finalized in largely unchanged form its very controversial proposal requiring banks, fintechs, and certain other parties holding retail-customer personal data to share that data with third parties such as data aggregators following a consumer’s request.  The new rule will make it easier for consumers to obtain personal financial data from incumbent providers to assess alternative products and new providers or value-added services such as financial planning or other, higher-risk offerings (e.g., debt “reduction”).  The rule may well also standardize APIs accessing bank data and essentially outlaw screen-scraping, simplifying data access and heightening both privacy and security if the Bureau’s intended constraints function as anticipated in these still largely-unregulated markets. The rule seeks to accomplish its objectives not only by these requirements, but also by….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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